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December, 2014 Current Topics

 

Source

 

 

 

 

Expanding Alliance: ANZUS Cooperation and Asia–Pacific Security, December 2014. The alliance between Australia and the US, underpinned by the formal ANZUS Treaty of 1951, continues to be a central part of Australian defence and security thinking and an instrument of American policy in the Asia–Pacific. How is it that an alliance conceived as a bulwark against a resurgence of Japanese militarism and which cut its military and intelligence teeth in the Cold War is still relevant to today’s strategic concerns?...

 

ASPI

Preserving the Knowledge Edge: Surveillance Cooperation and the US–Australia Alliance in Asia, December 2014. The US–Australia alliance is the bedrock of Australia’s defence policy. Successive governments have looked to the alliance for access to military technology, intelligence and training, as well as a promise of support against direct threats to Australia. However, Australia, the US and other regional allies today face a rapidly changing strategic environment in the Indo-Pacific. The American ‘rebalance’ to Asia represents recognition by the US that it needs to give greater priority to its management of the changing balance—an effort firmly endorsed by President Obama in his address at the University of Queensland...

 

ASPI

Waves of Opportunity: Enhancing Australia-Indonesia Maritime Security Cooperation. November 2014. Maritime security cooperation between Australia and Indonesia is important because of our geographical proximity and common interests. With recently-installed President Joko Widodo proclaiming Indonesia as the ‘World Maritime Axis’, there’s great momentum for Australia and Indonesia to enhance maritime security cooperation. This paper looks at ways to enhance cooperation through: more interaction between policymakers; facilitating greater integration among the agencies responsible for maritime security cooperation; national and regional capacity-building, and cooperative and collective maritime domain awareness.

 

ASPI

China, the G20 and Global Economic Governance, November 2014. At the closing of the 2014 G20 Brisbane Summit, the presidency of the 2016 G20 was awarded to China. This is the first time China will chair the world’s ‘premier forum for economic cooperation’. Yet the G20 is just one way that China, now the world’s largest economy on purchasing power parity terms, may seek to shape global economic governance. China is both seeking changes to the ‘traditional’ global economic governance model, centred upon the Bretton Woods Institutions, and experimenting with new processes such as the BRICS forum and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank...

 

Lowy

Defence Challenges 2035: Securing Australia's Lifelines, November 2014. As the Australian government prepares a new white paper to guide the country’s defence planning to 2035, the burden of strategic risk on Australia’s national interests is increasing. Those interests are extensive and face a widening range of risks, from coercion or conflict in Asia to resurgent terrorism and aggression in other parts of the globe. Australia’s region is becoming more central to global power balances and strategic tensions. Power balances are changing with China’s rise, and this will encourage risk-taking...

 

Lowy

The Declining Share of Agricultural Employment in the People's Republic of China: How Fast? November 2014. Rapid economic growth has long been viewed by the PRC’s policymakers as the most powerful antidote to reform-induced job loss. For an economy that needs about 10 million new jobs each year to keep its urban unemployment rate constant, any growth slowdown is a major concern...

 

ADB

The People's Republic of China’s Potential Growth Rate: The Long-Run Constraints. This paper assesses the trajectory of the People's Republic of China's (PRC’s) potential growth rate during the last 30 years in order to understand the policy dilemmas that the PRC’s policymakers face. It evaluates the relevance of various possible constraints that may limit the country’s growth in the future, focusing on the effects of the slowdown in working-age population growth and on the long-term constraint imposed by the balance of payments equilibrium. It also devotes special attention to the role played by structural change, and assesses the implications of the increasing importance of the services sector for the PRC’s future growth.

 

ADB

Cambodia: Diversifying Beyond Garments and Tourism, November 2014. Cambodia has enjoyed over 2 decades of robust growth, with rising foreign investment and deepening integration into global and regional value chains. The country—once riven by civil war and conflict—is now politically stable and increasingly making its mark as the world’s eighth-largest rice producer, Asia’s 10th largest garment exporter, and a rising tourist destination. Yet Cambodia faces considerable challenges. It suffers from major infrastructure deficits; limited skills development and education quality; and weaknesses in governance. Fiscal resources are also stretched. Moreover, for a successful transition to a modern industrialized economy, Cambodia needs to diversify and upgrade its productive capabilities

 

ADB

Pacific Economic Monitor, December 2014. Robust revenue collections in smaller Pacific economies - Rising rates under a regional vessel day scheme continue to support strong fishing license revenues in Kiribati, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, and Tuvalu. Increased economic activity and improved compliance are also pushing tax revenue collections higher in Fiji, Palau, Tonga, and Vanuatu...

 

ADB

Middle-Income Transitions: Trap or Myth? November 2014. The historical evidence presented in this paper indicates that economies move up across income groups. Historically, it has taken a “typical” economy 55 years to graduate from lower-middle income to upper-middle income. Likewise, the authors find that, historically, it has taken 15 years for an economy to graduate from upper-middle income to high income. The analysis implies that as of 2013, there were 10 (out of 39) lower-middle-income economies and 4 (out of 15) upper-middle-income economies that were experiencing slow transitions, i.e., above 55 and 15 years, respectively.

 

ADB

Manufacturing Matters... But It’s the Jobs That Count, November 2014. Practically every economy that enjoys a high income today experienced a manufacturing employment share in excess of 18%-20% sometime since the 1970s. This paper finds that the maximum expected employment share for a typical economy has fallen to around 13%-15%, and high manufacturing employment shares are becoming more difficult to sustain as incomes rise.

 

ADB

Hometown Investment Trust Funds: An Analysis of Credit Risk, November 2014. In Asia, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) account for a major share of employment and dominate the economy. Asian economies are often characterized as having bank-dominated financial systems and underdeveloped capital markets, in particular venture capital markets. Hence, looking for new methods of financing for SMEs is crucial. Hometown investment trust funds (HIT) are a new form of financial intermediation that has now been adopted as a national strategy in Japan...

 

ADB

Enabling GrEEEn Cities: An Operational Framework for Integrated Urban Development in Southeast Asia, November 2014. The paper presents a “model” for integrated urban development and environment planning that was developed to take the “3E” strategies of economic competitiveness, environmental sustainability, and equity, from theory to practice in Southeast Asia, under the regional technical assistance (TA) Green Cities: A Sustainable Urban Future in Southeast Asia, and based on simultaneous learning from sector work on green cities in Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand, and Viet Nam...

 

ADB

Russia Plays a Pragmatic Game on the Chinese Chess Board During APEC and EAS, November 2014. Vitaly Kozyrev, Visiting Fellow at the East-West Center in Washington, writes, "It seems that Moscow draws a line between its strategic competition with the U.S. in the European theater and in Asia, where the Kremlin seeks to prevent the monopolization of its foreign policy by China."

 

EWC

Shinzo Abe's Struggle in the Indian Ocean Region, November 2014. Tomoko Kiyota, Resident Sasakawa Peace Foundation Fellow at Pacific Forum CSIS, explains that "Shinzo Abe's strategy in the Indian Ocean region and South Asia seems to be a good way to offset the stagnation of Japan's diplomacy in East Asia. His success will depend on whether the Japanese people can understand his goals and how cooperative they are."

 

EWC

India's Joint Andaman and Nicobar Command is a Failed Experiment, November 2014. Anit Mukherjee, Assistant Professor at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, explains that "Not only has [the Andaman and Nicobar Joint Command] failed to usher in more joint commands, but the experience might be cited by those within the military community who are opposed to [such cooperation]."

 

EWC

Modi's Canberra Visit: Continuing the Momentum, November 2014. Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, explains that "there is a new outlook on bilateral relations, with a growing bipartisan support emerging in Australia for closer ties with India and New Delhi shedding its old thinking about Canberra as an appendage to Washington."

 

EWC

Modi Meets Abbott: A New Start for Australia-India Relations? November 2014. Ian Hall, Senior Fellow in the Department of International Relations at The Australian National University, explains that "Modi's impending visit presents an opportunity to put some momentum back into a 'strategic partnership' that has drifted for some years. If nothing else, it will highlight how Australia has changed and the growing intensity of people-to-people ties with India."

 

EWC

Myanmar: Taking the Long View, November 2014. Priscilla Clapp, former US Charge d'Affaires in Rangoon, explains that "A return to sanctions and punitive policies would limit US influence on the government just at the time when we have a unique array of policy measures and channels of communication for assisting and guiding the transition forward."

 

EWC

Asian Economic Integration Monitor, November 2014. The Asian Economic Integration Monitor is a semiannual review of Asia’s regional economic cooperation and integration. It covers the 48 regional members of the Asian Development Bank. The external recovery has been tentative this year after G3 economic growth slipped during the first half—the better US growth outlook has yet to benefit Asia, there is some uncertainty over Japan’s prospects, and the eurozone economy continues to struggle...

 

ADB

Do Governance Indicators Explain Development Performance? A Cross-Country Analysis, November 2014. Developing Asian countries with a surplus in government effectiveness, political stability, regulatory quality, and corruption control are observed to grow faster than those with a deficit in these indicators...

 

ADB

Fiscal Resources for Inclusive Growth, November 2014. To expand relatively low fiscal resource bases, developing Asian economies need to pay greater attention to non-tax revenue and to taxes other than broad-based taxes on income and consumption, such as property taxes and corrective taxes...

 

ADB

Government Spending and Inclusive Growth in Developing Asia, November 2014. Compared with revenue policies, spending programs are more likely to have direct effects on specific groups. It would be meaningful to discuss whether and/or how government expenditures contribute to economic growth while alleviating income inequality and maintaining social cohesion...

 

ADB

Are Current Tax and Spending Regimes Sustainable in Developing Asia? November 2014. Changes in population age structure matter for public finances because the beneficiaries of public programs are primarily children and the elderly. This study projects government spending on education, health care, and social protection in developing Asia up to 2050 as a result of demographic changes and economic growth...

 

ADB

Benefit Incidence of Public Transfers: Evidence from the People's Republic of China, November 2014. Three decades of virtually uninterrupted hyper economic growth have propelled the People’s Republic of China into the ranks of middle-income countries. However, this period of expansion in the economy has been accompanied by an equally rapid increase in levels of inequality in society...

 

ADB

Trade Policy Challenges in a Small, Open, Fragile, Postconflict Economy: Cambodia, October 2014. This paper analyzes the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Trade Policy Review: Cambodia, the first completed for the country. The report highlights Cambodia’s rapid economic growth after one of the world’s worst genocides in the 20th century. This growth has been underpinned by open trade and investment policies in the context of dynamic neighborhood growth effects...

 

ADB

From Spaghetti Bowl to Jigsaw Puzzle? Addressing the Disarray in the World Trade System, October 2014. The rise of mega-regionals such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) suggests that the world trade system is fragmenting to the point it appears more like a jigsaw puzzle than a spaghetti bowl. There are both regional and global jigsaw puzzles to be solved—in that order—to clean up the world trade system. But is this even likely...

 

ADB

Business Cycle Synchronization in Asia: The Role of Financial and Trade Linkages, October 2014. In this research project, we attempt to examine the behavior of business cycles in Asia in order to deepen our understanding of and expand research on this topic. Given the importance of the People’s Republic of China, Japan, and the United States in the region economy, we use these three economies as our “reference countries” to study the synchronization of their business cycles with other Asian economies of interest...

 

ADB

World Trade Organization Agreement on Trade Facilitation: Assessing the Level of Ambition and Likely Impacts, September 2014. At the Ninth Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization (WTO) held in Bali on 3–6 December 2013, the ministers agreed upon the WTO Agreement on Trade Facilitation (ATF). This paper assesses the level of ambition of the ATF from two angles. First, the use of softening language in each provision is examined. Second, the final agreement is compared against the draft text prepared before the Bali conference. Then, the paper considers the likely legal, economic, capacity-building, and reform-inducing impacts of the ATF.

 

ADB

How Capital Flows Affect Economy-wide Vulnerability and Inequality: Flow-of-Funds Analysis of Selected Asian Economies, July 2014. In contrast to the situation that preceded the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis, Asia today is a region with excess savings where corporate savings dominate. In the mid-2000s, the extent of liquidity was further amplified by massive capital flows, particularly bank-led flows. The flows were briefly interrupted by the global financial crisis, before debt-led flows began to dominate, following the Quantitative Easing (QE) policy in the United States...

 

ADB

Has Regional Integration Led to Greater Risk-sharing in Asia? July 2014. The 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis revealed the latent risks present in an increasingly integrated global economy and how virulent these risks can be when roused from dormancy. Given the inevitability of integration, the challenge is how to maximize its benefits while minimizing its costs. One benefit of greater integration, particularly financial integration, is that countries can diversify their risks, thus allowing them to smooth out their consumption. This paper analyzes whether the degree of risk-sharing in East Asia has improved along with the observed rise in integration in the region...

 

ADB

Technologies to Support Climate Change Adaptation in Developing Asia, Published 2014. This study has four important findings. First, decision makers considering adaptation options should take their local context into account in determining the range of both hard and soft adaptation technologies available to them. Just because a technology addresses a current vulnerability in one area does not necessarily mean it will perform equally well in a different context with different climatic and other conditions...

 

ADB

2014 CTI Annual Report to Ministers. The CTI Annual Report to Ministers for 2014 outlines the Committee’s accomplishments and recommendations in the key priority areas of APEC’s Trade and Investment Liberalization and Facilitation (TILF) agenda in support of APEC’s 2014 priorities under the theme of “Shaping the Future through Asia-Pacific Partnership”.

 

APEC

APEC Guidebook on Financial and Economic Literacy in Basic Education, Published 2014. The APEC Guidebook on Financial and Economic Literacy in Basic Education demonstrates how to design and implement learning activities related to financial and economic literacy in primary and lower secondary schools.

 

APEC

Innovation, Competitiveness and the Role of Fiscal Policies, November 2014. This issues paper aims to contribute to that priority by examining the role of fiscal and taxation policies that are related to R&D and the need to sharpen APEC economies’ competitive edge and accelerate the economic restructuring process in the APEC region.

 

APEC

50 Leading Companies for Women in APEC, November 2014. Building upon the APEC’s Growth Strategy of 2010 and other APEC activities, this project seeks to provide support for increased career and economic opportunities for women in the APEC region and beyond.

 

APEC

Report to Implement the APEC Connectivity Blueprint, Published 2014. The Report to Implement the APEC Connectivity Blueprint supports the implementation of the APEC Connectivity Blueprint for 2015-2025 which was endorsed by APEC Leaders during their meeting in November 2014 in Beijing, China. The report was prepared by SOM Friends of the Chair on Connectivity and the Policy Support Unit. 

 

APEC

How to Promote Business Continuity Planning to Mitigate the Impact of Disasters, Published 2014. This guide highlights the challenges officials face in their efforts to promote the use of Business Continuity Plans by SMEs and offers ideas and options for overcoming these challenges.

 

APEC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November, 2014

 

 

 

 

 

 

Effectiveness of the Easing of Monetary Policy in the Japanese Economy, Incorporating Energy Prices, November 2014. Japan has reached the limits of conventional macroeconomic policy. In order to overcome deflation and achieve sustainable economic growth, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) recently set an inflation target of 2% and implemented an aggressive monetary policy so this target could be achieved as soon as possible. Although prices started to rise after the BOJ implemented monetary easing, this may have been for other reasons, such as higher oil prices. Oil became expensive as a result of the depreciated Japanese yen and this was one of the main causes of the rise in inflation. This paper shows that quantitative easing may not have stimulated the Japanese economy either...

 

ADB

Financial Inclusion, Regulation, and Education in Sri Lanka, November 2014. Sri Lanka has achieved a high level of financial inclusion compared to other South Asian countries. Its financial sector comprises a wide range of financial institutions providing financial services such as loans, savings, pawning, leasing and finance, and remittance and money transfer facilities. There is also evidence that a larger share of households in Sri Lanka accesses multiple financial institutions for their credit and savings needs. However, the use of insurance services, ATM facilities, e-payments, and mobile banking, is relatively low. Financial education is ad hoc and lags behind financial innovation and new products...

 

ADB

Dynamic Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes: Policy Implications for Emerging Countries in Asia, October 2014. This paper discusses desirable exchange rate regimes and how countries can shift from their current regimes to these regimes over the medium term. We demonstrate the superiority of a basket-peg regime with the basket weight rule over a floating regime with the interest rate rule or the money supply rule in small open economies, during periods when volatility of exchange rates is moderate. Countries which currently have fixed exchange rates would be better moving toward either a basket-peg or a floating regime over the medium term. A shift to a basket-peg regime is preferred when exchange rate fluctuations are large.

 

ADB

Jump Jets for the ADF? November 2014. Is there a case for Australia to acquire F-35B Joint Strike Fighter short take-off, vertical landing (STOVL) aircraft to operate from the two new Canberra-class landing helicopter docks (LHDs)? The government has directed that this question be addressed in the development of the 2015 Defence White Paper...

 

ASPI

Monetary Authority of Singapore: Macroeconomic Review, Volume XIII, Issue 2, October 2014 (Full Report, Presentation Slides for Briefing):  

MAS

MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters, September 2014. The September 2014 Survey was sent out on 12 August 2014 to a total of 26 economists and analysts who closely monitor the Singapore economy. This report reflects the views received from 22 respondents (a response rate of 85%) and does not represent MAS’ views or forecasts.

 

MAS

2013 Singapore Asset Management Industry Survey, July 2014. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) conducted its annual survey of the Singapore asset management industry, for the year ending 31 December 2013. As at end-2013, total assets managed by Singapore-based asset managers grew by 11.8% to S$1.82 trillion. Growth was broadbased, with traditional and alternative managers registering good
increases in assets under management (AUM)...

 

MAS

Steadying the US Rebalance to Asia: The Role of Australia, Japan and South Korea, November 2014. Given China’s rise and Asia’s economic ascent, military growth and increasing trade flows, the US ‘pivot to Asia’ reflects an appropriate policy response to changing global realities. The pivot (now called a ‘rebalance’) implies a shift in US attention and resources in the military, diplomatic and economic spheres from the Middle East and Europe towards Asia...

 

ASPI

Should Ministerial Arrangements for Domestic Security Be Changed? October 2014. The recent increase in Australia’s terrorism alert, reported prime ministerial concern over national security arrangements, major increases in counterterrorism funding and operational success against people smuggling have raised a new question in Canberra: are our arrangements for managing domestic security optimal? This paper examines this question as a debate...

 

ASPI

Another Century, Another Long War, October 2014. Australia is involved in the early stages of a conflict that may last for the rest of the century and potentially beyond. Terrorism is but a symptom of a broader conflict in which the fundamental threat is from radical Islamists who are intent on establishing Islam as the foundation of a new world order...

 

ASPI

From Catching Up to Forging Ahead? China's Prospects in Semiconductors, November 2014. This study explores how China's new semiconductor strategy seeks to benefit from four global transformations in semiconductor markets and technology: a) the demand pull from mobile devices; b) new opportunities for China's foundries in trailing-node semiconductor technologies; c) changes in the IC foundry industry landscape; and) a new interest in strategic partnerships and mergers and acquisitions (M&A)...

 

EWC

Milan Summit Could Mark Turning Point for the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM), November 2014. Shada Islam, Director of Policy at Friends of Europe, explains that "for many in Asia, the EU is the prime partner to deal with non-traditional security dilemmas, including food, water and energy security as well as climate change. The EU remains an inspiration for Asia's own regional integration initiatives, including ASEAN, and in areas such as rules-based collective security."

 

EWC

India's Strategic Culture and U.S.-India Ties, November 2014. Sarang Shidore, Visiting Scholar at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin, explains that "In the absence of a clear mutual understanding on the systemic front, [US-India] bilateral differences over narrower issues such as immigration visas or multi-brand retail have become disproportionately prominent and gained traction beyond the transactional."

 

EWC

Asia's Importance, China’s Expansion and U.S. Strategy: What Should Be Done? October 2014. Robert Sutter, Professor at George Washington University, states that the Obama government's "posture has been reactive, vacillating between periodic strident statements against Chinese coercive behavior and muting disputes in the lead up to the November 2014 meetings."

 

EWC

America's Aging Society Problem: A Look to Japan for Lessons on Prevention, October 2014. Ender Ricart, Japan Studies Visiting Fellow at the East-West Center in Washington, explains that "If we look to Japan as an example, America could benefit from enacting like-minded policies that target and empower older adults aged 65 and over to make lifestyle choices that will prevent behaviorally caused diseases."

 

EWC

The Asia-Pacific Cooperation Agenda: Moving from Regional Cooperation Toward Global Leadership, October 2014. In the past quarter-century Asia has seen vast changes, including increased economic growth, integration, and liberalization. The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) process, now marking its 25th anniversary, facilitated these changes through its institution of the first regular meetings of ministers and then leaders. But what role should APEC play in the future? With a continuing diffusion of power, what was once hailed as an imminent "Asian century" is much more likely to be a global one...

 

EWC

Contesting Buddhist Narratives: Democratization, Nationalism, and Communal Violence in Myanmar, Published 2014. Myanmar's transition to democracy has been marred by violence between Buddhists and Muslims. While the violence originally broke out between Rakhine Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims, it subsequently emerged throughout the country, impacting Buddhists and Muslims of many ethnic backgrounds. This article offers background on these so-called "communal conflicts" and the rise and evolution of Buddhist nationalist groups led by monks that have spearheaded anti-Muslim campaigns...

 

EWC

China's Foreign Policy in Afghanistan, October 2014. On 31 December 2014 NATO will hand over its final security responsibilities to local Afghan forces. The handover will raise new questions for Chinese policy in Afghanistan. On the one hand, Beijing wants a stable Afghanistan. It does not want the country to become either a haven for Uyghur militancy, or for instability to spread through the region. On the other hand, Beijing is reluctant to become too deeply involved in Afghanistan, conscious of the West’s difficult experience over the last decade and fearful of attracting the attention of international terrorist groups...

 

Lowy

Indonesian Foreign Policy under President Jokowi, October 2014. New Indonesian president Joko Widodo’s inexperience in foreign affairs and his focus on domestic issues will see him delegate decisions on foreign and security policy to his key advisers. This will result in increased competition between the institutions those advisers lead. On issues where a consensus does not emerge, this competition will make it more difficult for Indonesian foreign policy-makers to define a clear position...

 

Lowy

2014 APEC Economic Policy Report. The 2014 APEC Economic Report focuses on APEC’s work and advocacy for the development and implementation of Good Regulatory Practices (GRPs). It includes individual member economies reports, which describe key policy developments concerning the use of Good Regulatory Practices.

 

APEC

2014 APEC Economic Policy Report: Executive Summary. This is an executive summary of the 2014 APEC Economic Policy Report which highlights the challenges of APEC economies in implementing Good Regulatory Practices and suggests further steps in promoting the use of GRPs.

 

APEC

Factsheet: 2014 APEC Economic Policy Report. This is a 2 page factsheet of the 2014 APEC Economic Policy Report which focuses on Good Regulatory Practices.

 

APEC

Factsheet: 2014 APEC Senior Officials' Report on Economic and Technical Cooperation. This is a 2 page factsheet of the 2014 APEC Senior Officials' Report on Economic and Technical Cooperation.

 

APEC

Enhanced Resiliency of Cross-Border Value Chains: Impact Evaluation for the Asia-Pacific, October 2014. This report presents results from the fourth and final phase of PSU’s project on Value Chain Resilience (VCR). The first three phases examined particular components of VCR, namely Risk, Strength, and Connectedness. This report deals with the economic impacts of VCR using a global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model...

 

APEC

Key Trends and Developments relating to Trade and Investment Measures and their Impact on the APEC region, November 2014. This report is prepared by the APEC Policy Support Unit (PSU) to inform APEC ministers, officials, and stakeholders on recent trade and investment trends in the region, as well as tradea nd investment-related measures recently implemented by APEC member economies. Started in 2009, this report is produced semiannually for information during the Meeting of the APEC Ministers Responsible for Trade (MRT) and the APEC Ministerial Meeting (AMM).

 

APEC

APEC Economic Trends Analysis, November 2014. The PSU’s APEC Economic Trends Analysis provides an overview on emerging trends underlying the region’s economic prospects by providing in-depth analysis on recent macroeconomic and financial developments in the APEC region. The key message of this issue is on the importance of building a more innovative and dynamic services sector to secure and sustain higher APEC growth.

 

APEC

Regulatory Issues Affecting Trade and Supply Chain Finance, November 2014. Supply chain finance is one form of trade financing that has experienced rapid growth in recent years. The paper notes the current lack of globally agreed definition of supply chain finance and thus takes the liberty to discuss two ways of understanding supply chain finance and the different policy issues under each...

 

APEC

Trade and Economic Growth: 25 Years of a Stronger Relationship within APEC, October 2014. The purpose of this Policy Brief is to explore the correlation between trade and the gross domestic product (GDP) within APEC and show the importance that trade plays in APEC’s economic growth vis-à-vis the rest of the world

 

APEC

APEC in Charts 2014. APEC in Charts was launched by the APEC Policy Support Unit in 2013 to provide a graphical overview of the APEC region’s economic, trade, investment and policy-related performance. This year’s issue is significant as 2014 marks 25 years since the founding of APEC...

 

APEC

Shaping the Future through an Asia-Pacific Partnership for Urbanization and Sustainable City Development, October 2014. This study presents arguments and a rationale for APEC member economies to engage in an Asia-Pacific partnership to shape the future of urbanization and sustainable city development. It discusses the challenges, policies, issues, and changes facing the development and management of cities...

 

APEC

Evaluation of Value Chain Connectedness in the APEC Region, October 2014. Part 3 of a 4-phase analysis of Value Chain Resilience in the APEC region, this report examines Value Chain Connectedness by using value-added trade data to map the activity of value chains, with particular reference to the Asia-Pacific region and uses sophisticated network analysis techniques to provide a quantitative evaluation of Value Chain Connectedness.

 

APEC

APEC's Bogor Goals Progress Report 2014. In general, the analysis of the information shows that progress has been uneven across APEC economies and across areas. It is clear that more work needs to be done...

 

APEC

APEC's Bogor Goals Dashboard 2014. The purpose of the Dashboard is to provide easy-to-understand figures to track the advances in areas critical to promoting greater regional economic integration, such as liberalization and facilitation of trade and investment...

 

APEC

Regulatory Reform - Case Studies on Promoting Innovation, October 2014. This report contains case studies that investigate the role of regulatory reforms and practices in the promotion of innovation. The case studies draw lessons and suggest policy recommendations based on APEC member economies’ experiences of implementing regulatory reforms to promote innovation...

 

APEC

2014 External Indicators Update for the Supply Chain Connectivity Framework Action Plan, October 2014. This report provides updates on Supply Chain Connectivity Framework Action Plan (SCFAP) progress related to the agreed external indicators with the goal of 10% improvement by 2015 in terms of time, costs and uncertainty.

 

APEC

Quantitative Analysis of Value Chain Strength in the APEC Region, July 2014. Part 2 of a 4-phase analysis of Value Chain Resilience in the APEC region, this report examines Value Chain Strength by combining qualitative and quantitative approaches to place APEC’s performance in a comparative perspective with other regional groupings...

 

APEC

Fiscal Policy and Growth in Developing Asia, October 2014. This paper traces the evolution of industrial policies in Indonesia from a global value chain (GVC) perspective. Using the mineral sector as a mini case study, the paper assesses the Indonesian Government’s recent effort to boost domestic value addition in the sector. It argues that the effectiveness of government policies in maximizing the gains from GVC participation depends not only on policy design, but also on policy consistency and coherence, effective implementation, and coordination.

 

ADB

Industrial Policy in Indonesia: A Global Value Chain Perspective, October 2014. This paper traces the evolution of industrial policies in Indonesia from a global value chain (GVC) perspective. Using the mineral sector as a mini case study, the paper assesses the Indonesian Government’s recent effort to boost domestic value addition in the sector. It argues that the effectiveness of government policies in maximizing the gains from GVC participation depends not only on policy design, but also on policy consistency and coherence, effective implementation, and coordination.

 

ADB

Fiscal Policy and Inclusive Growth in Latin America: Lessons for Asia, October 2014. Latin America’s experience with inclusive fiscal policy can offer valuable lessons for developing Asia in its new-found quest to leverage public spending and taxation to spread the benefits of growth to the broader population. Of particular interest is its generally successful experience with conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs. Overall, the evidence suggests that CCT programs can be an effective tool for inclusive growth in Asia, too. However, CCTs are not a panacea for poverty and inequality, and the ingredients for their success in Asia may differ from those in Latin America.

 

ADB

Sustainable Vocational Training Toward Industrial Upgrading and Economic Transformation, Published 2014. This report summarizes results of the workshop “Sustainable Vocational Training toward Industrial Upgrading and Economic Transformation” held from 2 to 5 December 2013 in Beijing and Guangzhou, the People’s Republic of China (PRC). A joint initiative of the PRC and the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the workshop—attended by more than 90 participants from 16 countries—is part of the annual PRC-ADB Knowledge Sharing Platform and was supported and organized by the Regional Knowledge Sharing Initiative...

 

ADB

Scrutinizing Urbanization Challenges in the Philippines through the Infrastructure Lens, October 2014. Managing urban growth in countries requires that leaders plan ahead using national physical plans that, among others, safeguard land for utilities and physical infrastructure decades ahead, deliberately configures transport networks (including strategic seaports, controlled expressways and, if necessary, railway extension to suburbs) in order to induce factor mobility, and actively targets the removal of slums and urban renewal...

 

PIDS

12th DPRM Advocates Labor, Industrial Reforms for Inclusive Growth, July-September 2014. The theme for this year, "Addressing the Jobs Challenge Toward Inclusive Growth", highlights the need for labor and industrial reforms for inclusive growth. It underscores the effect of labor policies such as the minimum wage-setting, the lack of more productive jobs, and issues in the education sector that have further contributed to persistent poverty and inequality...

 

PIDS

Minimum Wage: Should it be the Weapon of Choice for Inclusive Growth? September 2014. The minimum wage is a classic example of a price floor, the lowest price set by law with which to pay a commodity. The idea is to prevent wages from going too low. Historically, societies have used the minimum wage to achieve their social justice objectives. Internationally, there is no consensus on the effect of minimum wages on employment. In the Philippines, a study by Lanzona (2014) established a negative relationship between minimum wages and employment...

 

PIDS

How Should Income-based Grantees in Tertiary Education Be Chosen? October 2014. Helping poor but deserving students get a college degree is one way to break the cycle of poverty. The question, however, is how these scholars should be chosen. This Policy Note draws some insights from the PIDS research on the Students Grants-in-Aid Program for Poverty Alleviation (SGP-PA) implemented by the Commission on Higher Education and Department of Social Welfare and Development. The SGP-PA supports students unable to afford tertiary education. The program`s objective is to increase the number of higher education graduates among poor households and employ these graduates in high value-added occupations.

 

PIDS

The Need (or not) for Fiscal Incentives, October 2014. Fiscal incentives are one of the instruments in a country`s development and investment promotion strategies. In the Philippines, the bill on the rationalization of fiscal incentives for investments to further shore up government collections has been certified a priority measure by the Aquino administration. This bill aims to rationalize fiscal incentives across industries to improve transparency, further bolster revenues, and level the playing field. ..

 

PIDS

Clarifying the Jobs Challenge, September 2014. The jobs challenge is not simply the lack of job opportunities. A more nuanced view is the inability of the common person to earn a decent living through productive employment or self-employment. Viewing the issue as such reveals the other dimensions of the lack of job opportunities issue. This Policy Note clarifies the jobs challenge and its implications for policy based on Paqueo et al. (2014)...

 

PIDS

Is Growth Really Jobless? August 2014. The stellar economic growth in the country since 2012 has not been subsequently accompanied by a significant reduction in poverty or by increased employment. Is the country`s economic growth really jobless? The description about the Philippine economy being jobless stems from the seeming divergence in growth between economic growth and employment...

 

PIDS

Effects of Minimum Wage on the Philippine Economy, August 2014. This Policy Note presents the results of a study that explores the effects of labor policies on the industry. In particular, it examines the minimum wage policy by disentangling and controlling various factors that may confound the effects of minimum wages on employment. Using various econometric methods, the study finds that the minimum wage policy reduces employment in small firms. It causes small firms to reduce their production workers...

 

PIDS

Process, Nature, and Impacts of Irrigation System Rehabilitation, August 2014. Irrigation systems undergo rehabilitation to maintain developed irrigation service areas and close the gap between service areas and actual areas irrigated. A rapid appraisal of the government`s irrigation program was commissioned to the Philippine Institute for Development Studies to assess how well these goals have been achieved...

 

PIDS

Appraisal of Methodology in Estimating Irrigable Areas and Processes of Evaluating Feasibility of NIA Irrigation Projects, August 2014. This Policy Note highlights the key findings of a component study of the rapid appraisal of the irrigation program commissioned by the National Economic and Development Authority and the Department of Budget and Management to the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, to provide input to the budget process...

 

PIDS

Government Investment in Deep-well Pumps: Some Preliminary Notes for Policy, August 2014. Irrigation is a key component of the government`s strategy to improve agricultural productivity and attain food self-sufficiency. In recent years, the government has been investing in deep-well pumps as an option to develop more water sources amid the expansion of service areas...

 

PIDS

Analysis of Technical Assumptions and Processes of Evaluating Feasibility of Irrigation Projects, August 2014. This Policy Note presents the highlights of a component study of the rapid appraisal of the government`s irrigation program commissioned by the National Economic and Development Authority and the Department of Budget and Management to the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, as input to the budget process...

 

PIDS

Bridging the Digital Divide through Asia-Pacific Partnership, October 2014. The APEC Digital Opportunity Center (ADOC) Project is an ECOTECH (Economic and Technical Cooperation) initiative first proposed in the 2003 APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting. The main objective of ADOC project is to reduce digital divides in the APEC region by enabling people to overcome limitations due to age, gender, health, social or education status, and to enjoy the benefits of digitalization.

 

APEC

APEC Guideline to Tackle Antimicrobial Resistance in the Asia-Pacific Region, October 2014. It is primarily based on the strategic action plan to control and prevent AMR in the Asia-Pacific region from previous APEC projects...

 

APEC

Promoting APEC SME Innovation through Smart IPR Policy: How Smart IPR Policies Can Encourage SMMEs' Research and Development, September 2014. This report provides an overview and summary of the Promoting APEC SME Financing through Smart IPR Policy Seminar, held between the 17th –18th of September 2014 at the Sofitel Sukhumvit Hotel, Bangkok by the Office of Small and Medium Enterprises Promotion (OSMEP), on behalf of the APEC SME Working Group.

 

APEC

Journal of Bhutan Studies, Volume 28, Summer 2013 (Published 2014)  

Bhutan

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October, 2014

 

 

 

 

 

 

US-India Relations After the Modi Visit, October 2014. Rajesh Rajagopalan, Professor of International Politics at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, explains that "there has been a refreshing change on the Indian side in being willing to openly declare India's key strategic interests."

 

EWC

What Place for the Asia-Pacific in French Global Strategy? October 2014. Arnaud Leveau, Research Fellow at the ASEAN Studies Center (ASC) at Chulalongkorn University in Thailand, explains that "it is in the French interest to support and encourage the stabilizing role of the United States in the Asia Pacific, especially to guarantee freedom of navigation at sea and of overflight."

 

EWC

Feeling Disconnected: Exploring the Relationship between Different Forms of Social Capital and Civic Engagement in Japan, Published 2014. This paper analyzes the role of social connectedness in motivating citizens to take an active interest in society and to engage in communal activities. Japan is used as an example of a society which has been diagnosed with a weakening of social bonds, as well as with an increase in social inequality and precarity in recent years...

 

DIJ

Gender and Political Participation in Post-3/11 Japan, Published 2014. In the aftermath of the triple disaster of March 11, 2011, concerned parents throughout Japan formed over 300 social movement organizations nationwide for the protection of children from radiation. Especially mothers have become active within that organizational network. For many of them, it is their first time to become politically active...

 

DIJ

India: Redesigning Fiscal Federalism after the Global Financial Crisis, 2014. Partly as a result of the Fiscal Responsibility Act (passed in 2003) the gross fiscal deficits of both central and state governments were in good order. Indeed, both central and state governments were running primary surpluses in 2006-07 and 2007-08. Partly as result of the stimulus enacted to counter the effects of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) both central and state government have been running primary deficits since 2008-09 as a result of which gross fiscal deficits and debt have risen significantly...

 

ASARC

Caught between Theory and Practice: Government, Market, and Regulatory Failure in Electricity Sector Reforms, 2014. The world-wide electricity sector reforms of the early 1990s have revealed the complexities of introducing market driven reforms and making them work in network and infrastructure industries. This paper reflects on the experience to date with the process and outcomes of market-based electricity reforms in less-developed, transition and developed economies...

 

ASARC

Financing Post-2015 Development Challenges: Who are the Front-runners in the Asia and Pacific Region? October 2014. Adequate fiscal flexibility is a prerequisite for meeting the post-2015 development challenges. This paper proposes a composite fiscal flexibility index. Based on several important fiscal parameters, the index will identify countries in the Asia and Pacific region that are well-poised to meet the enhanced development financing requirements...

 

ADB

Industrialization and Global Value Chain Participation: An Examination of Constraints Faced by the Private Sector in Nepal, October 2014. This paper examines the constraints faced by Nepal, a least developed landlocked country, in participating in regional and global value chains. It analyzes key economic data, reviews recent and relevant publications, and draws on interviews with policy makers and stakeholders. The paper identifies behind-and beyond-the-border factors that reduce competitiveness and the ability of the private sector to participate and benefit from regional and global value chains. It also conducted case studies with two leading firms in Nepal...

 

ADB

New Evidence on the Gender Wage Gap in Indonesia, September 2014. Even though Indonesia has been experiencing impressive economic growth, urbanization could affect income inequality among workers. Using the 2010 National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas) in Indonesia, this paper examines how monthly wages are distributed between male and female workers. Empirical results indicate that urbanization tends to benefit male workers more favorably than female workers. It also shows that the gender wage gap in Indonesia is mainly due to gender discrimination. Thus, the paper proposes the implementation of laws to equalize opportunities and wages among workers, especially in the public sector...

 

ADB

Connecting South and Southeast Asia: Implementation Challenges and Coordination Arrangements, September 2014. With closer regional integration there is increasing interest within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and on the part of ASEAN's dialogue partners in the potential gains of closer connections between Southeast Asia and South Asia. The strategic positions of India, Myanmar, and Thailand provide the basis and scope for implementing multi-modal connectivity projects, for building upon and improving existing infrastructure and processes for cross-border connectivity in trade...

 

ADB

Research on Green Supply Chain Management of Yujiapu Financial District, September 2014. The publication looks into the green supply chain management in Yujiapu Financial District, APEC’s first Low-Carbon Model Town.

 

APEC

Cargo Preference and Restrictions Applying to Specific Trades, September 2014. This report looks into past and existing cargo preference along with specific trade policies within the APEC member economies. It also aims to analyze their implementation and policy effect.

 

APEC

APEC's Ease of Doing Business - Interim Assessment 2009-2013, September 2014. This report analyzes the accumulated progress by the APEC region during the period 2009-2013. The interim assessment confirms that APEC has been making continuous overall progress in the EoDB initiative since its inception. During the period 2009-2013, APEC’s combined improvement across the five EoDB priority areas was equal to 11.3 percent, but progress remained below the 2013 pro rata benchmark of 15 percent improvement. APEC will need to intensify its efforts to get closer to the 2015 target.

 

APEC

Study on the Reduction of Energy Consumption and Prevention of Harmful Exhaust Emissions from International Shipping in the APEC Region, August 2014. This project aims to achieve green growth and promote the development of clean and efficient transportation system in the APEC region by providing solutions to member economies for optimizing fuel consumption, using clean energy and reducing harmful exhaust emissions from ships while maintaining the sound and sustainable development of shipping.

 

APEC

APEC Marine Sustainable Development Report, August 2014. The report is the first APEC report on marine sustainable development, and aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the current status of marine sustainable development in APEC as well as review the progress made so far, and the related challenges.

 

APEC

Hong Kong: High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecasts Current Quarter Model: 2014Q4, October 2014. According to its High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecast, real GDP in 14Q3 is estimated to grow by 2.4% when compared with the same period last year. This is a downward revision from the previous forecast release of 3.7%. This revision mainly reflects the weaker-then-expected external demand for exports of services and the weaker-than-expected local demand. In 14Q4, real GDP growth is forecast to be 2.1% when compared with the same period last year...

 

HKU

Joko Widodo's Indonesia: Possible Future Paths, September 2014. This paper looks at the possible paths for policy and development in Indonesia under the leadership of the seventh president of Indonesia, Joko Widodo, who will take office in Jakarta on 20 October. The first part is a stocktake of the challenges that lie ahead. The stocktake assesses the state of play in five areas: the political system; economic challenges; government and administration; social issues; and foreign affairs...

 

ASPI

The Submarine Choice: Perspectives on Australia's Most Complex Defence Project, September 2014. In April this year ASPI staged a conference called The Submarine Choice. In this book you’ll find a summary of each of the talks that were given at the conference, and they contain a range of perspectives. As well, we’ve included some analytic insights from ASPI. Mark Thomson and Andrew Davies write on the complex suite of industrial options...

 

ASPI

Global Value Chains, Border Management and Australian Trade, September 2014. In this Lowy Institute Analysis, Nicholas Humphries examines how Australian Customs can increase Australia’s trade competitiveness at a time when goods and services are increasingly produced across borders in so- called ‘global value chains’ (GVC). This Analysis was written as a part of the Australian Customs and Border Protection Services Fellowship at the Lowy Institute...

 

Lowy

China's Shifting Perceptions of India: The Context of Xi Jinping's Visit to India, October 2014. Selina Ho, Senior Research Fellow at the Centre on Asia and Globalisation, National University of Singapore, explains that "The growing strategic proximity between China and India increases the potential for conflict but also for cooperation."

 

EWC

ISIL, a Growing Threat in Indonesia? September 2014. Gwenael Njoto-Feillard, Visiting Fellow at the Institute of South-East Asian Studies (ISEAS) in Singapore, explains that "Stronger cooperation between the state and all elements of Islamic civil society is needed to reinforce the relative resilience of Indonesian Islam to the growth of radicalism."

 

EWC

Asian Development Outlook 2014 UPDATE (Highlights, Full Report):  Asia in Global Value Chains  

ADB

Asia Bond Monitor, September 2014. Emerging East Asian local currency (LCY) bond markets continued to perform well as global financial conditions have remained relatively benign thus far in 2014. The region, however, should prepare for possibly tighter liquidity as United States (US) quantitative easing is expected to end in October. More expansionary monetary actions from the eurozone and Japan could offset some of the impact on liquidity conditions caused by the end of US quantitative easing...

 

ADB

Asian Development Review, Vol. 31, No. 2, 2014 (Full Report):   ADB

Connecting South Asia and Southeast Asia: A Bangladesh Country Study, September 2014. Economic integration is being inhibited by the poor state of transport connectivity between Bangladesh, and South Asia and Southeast Asia. This study reviews connectivity initiatives of Bangladesh and the two neighboring regions and proposes ways to deepen regional and interregional connectivity. Since the early 1990s, as a consequence of trade-led growth strategy, South Asia and Southeast Asia have emerged as important economic partners of Bangladesh both in terms of export destination and import sourcing...

 

ADB

Capital Flows during Quantitative Easing and Aftermath: Experiences of Asian Countries, September 2014. The United States quantitative easing (QE) triggered massive expansions of capital flow into developing Asia, raising concerns about financial instability consequences. The paper examines the effect of QE on capital flows and scrutinizes factors that influence the effect of QE tapering on financial instability. The findings suggest that QE did lead to large capital inflows which, with credit expansion, magnified the effect of the QE tapering announcement on the region’s financial instability. While there is no evidence that macroprudential policies directly reduced the effect of QE tapering, they can nevertheless be useful preemptive measures.

 

ADB

Energy Security in Asia: Prospects for Regional Cooperation, September 2014. This paper illustrates the consequences of the search for energy security and its relationship to regional trade and cooperation. It asserts three main ways regional cooperation can strengthen national policies on energy security: (i) information and knowledge sharing to create a sound evidence base for policies, (ii) agreement on common policies, and (iii) subregional development of electricity and gas markets. In the long term, the biggest impact of regional cooperation on national energy security will be creating regional networks; developing subregional markets will likely be the most effective approach.

 

ADB

Energy Efficiency Improvements in Asia: Macroeconomic Impacts, September 2014. The paper finds that energy efficiency policies in Asia are expected to have a positive impact on private consumption, government expenditures, and investment. Such policies would also lead to a significant rise in trade within the region while reducing trade outside. Without measures to improve efficiency, emissions would increase significantly in most countries studied.

 

ADB

Power Sector in Developing Asia: Current Status and Policy Issues, September 2014. The paper examines the current status and future prospects of the electricity sectors and key policy issues in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), India, Japan, and the Republic of Korea. In the PRC, the fuel mix and energy efficiency are key concerns, while raising efficiency of power plants and reducing transmission losses are main issues in India. In Japan, amid reductions in nuclear output, there are aims to diversify generation portfolio by expanding renewables. In the Republic of Korea, average electricity prices are below production costs, leading to overconsumption.

 

ADB

Diversification of Energy Supply: Prospects for Emerging Energy Sources, August 2014. This paper examines the status, future prospects, environmental implications, investment and infrastructure requirements, and risks of alternative energy sources such as solar resource, wind power, and unconventional gas. Solar resource is considered excellent across developing Asia, while the wind resource is strong in several economies. While shale gas is a fast-emerging unconventional gas, it may develop slowly in the region due to various limitations, including challenging geological conditions, lack of geological data, and dense populations in prospective areas.

 

ADB

Innovative Asia: Advancing the Knowledge-Based Economy - The Next Policy Agenda, Published 2014. This study outlines policy actions required in developing countries of Asia to advance as knowledge-based economies. The study uses the four pillars of the Knowledge Economy Index to benchmark the performance of developing economies in Asia against advanced economies of the world. It analyzes opportunities by which Asia’s middle and low income countries can tap new technology trends to move up global value chains and towards high-income levels.

 

ADB

Innovative Asia: Advancing the Knowledge-Based Economy - Country Case Studies for the People's Republic of China, India, Indonesia, and Kazakhstan. This report presents the case studies of the People’s Republic of China, India, Indonesia and Kazakhstan in their knowledge-based economy approaches. It identifies a range of policies and initiatives that these economies need to consider to strengthen innovation-led growth and make a transition from middle-income to high-income levels.

 

ADB

Urban Metabolism of Six Asian Cities, Published 2014. The urban metabolism framework maps the activities of cities from their consumption of materials, the different activities associated with those processes, and the wastes produced. Information generated provides a diagnostic tool for identifying high waste generating or inefficient activities and identifying potential points of policy intervention. A streamlined urban metabolism approach based on material flow analyses was applied to six Asian cities—Bangalore, Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City, Manila, Seoul and Shanghai...

 

ADB

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
 

  

 
 

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