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September 2023 Current Topics

  

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Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2023 (Full Report):
  • Part I: Sustainable Development Goals
  • Part II: Regional Trends and Tables
  • Part III: Dollar Price Wedge between Nominal and Real Global Value Chain Participation
  • Part IV: Stories Behind Data—Using Price Data and Statistics to Track Socioeconomic Development

Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific covers 49 economies: Afghanistan, Armenia, Australia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, China, Cook Islands, Fiji Islands, Georgia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kiribati, Republic of Korea, Kyrgyz Republic, Lao, Malaysia, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nauru, Nepal, Niue, New Zealand, Pakistan, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Samoa, Singapore, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Taipei, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Turkmenistan, Tuvalu, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu, and Viet Nam.

  

ADB

South Korea’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, Atmanirbhar Bharat, and the IPEF: Convergence and Commonality, August 2023. For some time now, the existing multilateral networks such as those of the United Nations (UN) system have been largely ineffective in providing good global governance and helping create resilience, especially among the emerging and developing economies. The latest example that highlights the inefficacy of the current system is the collapse of the Black Sea grain deal despite genuine UN efforts. As a result, the world order is experiencing a precarious transition. This has necessitated countries across the world to create newer cooperative multilateral mechanisms that are in tune with the times and can potentially give rise to a resilient strategic landscape, such as providing favorable conditions for economic security...

  

ISDP

Pivotal States, Global South and India-South Korea Relations, August 2023. In recent years, the term “Global South”—largely spanning countries in Africa, Central and Latin America, Asia, and the Caribbean—has gained tremendous geopolitical currency. One of the most salient drivers of this reclamation of the so-called emerging and developing world as a symbolic power has been India’s rising strategic and diplomatic prominence. As a vocal member of the community of diverse states, India has refocused its efforts to place the South and its concerns at center stage by coalescing with “like-minded” partners, which was effectively reflected during the 2023 G20 presidency. South Korea is an integral aspect of this global aim...

  

ISDP

Assessing the Development of Taiwanese Identity, August 2023. The subject of contemporary Taiwan inevitably evokes controversy concerning its political, national, and cultural identity, especially the fervent dispute regarding its sovereignty and global recognition. Should Taiwan be recognized as a sovereign and independent state under the name of the Republic of China (ROC), or should it be seen as an “inseparable part of one China,” as claimed by the People’s Republic of China (PRC)? Should the people in Taiwan be considered culturally Chinese, or should they be seen as a separate cultural entity? A compelling underpinning of Taiwan’s assertion of separate nationhood and statehood derives from its emphasis on a distinct historical narrative that diverges from that of the PRC...

  

ISDP

EU-U.S. Convergence on China Chip Sanctions: On Brittle Ground? August 2023. The United States unveiled new wide-ranging restrictions on China’s semiconductor industry in October 2022, unprecedented in scope and intent. Abandoning the Trump years’ erratic approach to individual Chinese tech companies, the Biden administration comprehensively targeted the entire semiconductor supply chain, including allied exports. Not only did the sanctions cut off access to advanced components containing U.S. technologies, but they also sought to end China’s access to the manufacturing equipment needed to produce such components in the first place. The European Union has since sought to find a balance in the new Sino-American tech war, culminating in the EU’s Economic Security Strategy of June 2023. This issue brief examines the motivations and impacts of the U.S. chips sanctions and how they have impacted transatlantic relations and European semiconductor priorities.

  

ISDP

Geopolitical Flux and the Future of International Relations, August 2023. The international political system is undergoing significant geopolitical and economic shifts brought about by fluctuations in the distribution of power among states. This brings into question the future of international cooperation amidst the continuous depletion of global resources and the proliferation of conflict. With the rise and strengthening of potential great and regional powers of the Global South, it is inevitable that the nature of multilateralism will also continue to evolve. However, such an evolution will not only be reliant on material power, but also on the variations in perceptions among states. While multilateralism will remain an undeniable component of international affairs, this issue brief posits that its characteristics will undergo significant reconfigurations based on the growing importance of the Global South and the coinciding interests of developing states to address international issues beyond traditional discourses and methods.

  

ISDP

North Korea’s Grey Huddle: A Reverse Perspective of its Analog Military, August 2023. Defense reform has been the keyword for South Korea’s military strategy for over 20 years and recently the country upgraded its strategic defense plan with the new name ‘Defense Innovation 4.0’ under the Yoon Suk-yeol administration. The core logic behind the reform is smaller but stronger manpower through technical advancement. However, there have been unprecedented drawbacks of fully automated weapon systems revealed in public recently and the fathers of Artificial Intelligence have warned about their errors against mankind. On the other hand, technically disadvantaged adversaries, especially North Korea, have honed their defense strategy with their old-fashioned analog military for decades. This issue brief analyzes the gap between the two sides—technically advanced and technically disadvantaged—in order to refine our technical prowess in the right direction with minimal reform.

  

ISDP

Australia’s North and Space, August 2023. This report examines opportunities for the development of sovereign space capability in the Northern Territory, Queensland, and Western Australia. Given that those northern jurisdictions are closer to the equator, there’s a natural focus in the report on the potential opportunities offered by sovereign space launch, particularly in the Northern Territory and Queensland. However, I also consider the potential for other aspects of space besides launch, including space domain awareness, the establishment of satellite ground stations, and space industry. I explore the potential for the co-location of space industry—domestic and international—within or close to launch sites, which would result in the development of ‘space hubs’ in strategic locations in Australia...

  

ASPI

Getting Regulation Right: Approaches to Improving Australia’s Cybersecurity, Published 2023. As well as having a global impact, Cybersecurity is one of the most significant issues affecting Australia’s economy and national security. On the one hand, poor cybersecurity presents a risk to the interconnected digital systems on which we increasingly rely; on the other hand, well-managed cybersecurity provides an opportunity to build trust and advantage by accelerating digital transformation. Cyber threats can originate from a diverse range of sources and require a diverse set of actions to effectively mitigate them. However, a common theme is that much better cyber risk management is needed to address this critical threat; the current operation of the free market isn’t consistently driving all of the required behaviours or actions...

  

ASPI

Incels in Australia: The Ideology, the Threat, and a Way Forward, August 2023. This report explores the phenomenon of ‘incels’—involuntary celibates—and the misogynistic ideology that underpins a subset of this global community of men that has become a thriving Internet subculture. It examines how online spaces, from popular social media sites to dedicated incel forums, are providing a platform for not just the expansion of misogynistic views but gender-based violent extremism. It raises key questions regarding Australian efforts to counter misogynistic ideologies within our nation. If there’s a continuum that has sexist, but lawful, views on gender at one end and gendered hate speech at the other, at what point does misogynistic ideology tip into acts of gendered violence? What’s needed to prevent misogynistic ideologies from becoming violent? And how do we, as a society, avoid the epidemic levels of violence against women in Australia...

  

ASPI

Trends in Southeast Asia 2023 #10: Consuming Digital Disinformation: How Filipinos Engage with Racist and Historically Distorted Online Political Content. Many current counter-disinformation initiatives focus on addressing the production or “supply side” of digital disinformation. Less attention tends to be paid to the consumption or the intended audiences of disinformation campaigns. A central concept in understanding people’s consumption of and vulnerability to digital disinformation is its imaginative dimension as a communication act. Key to the power of disinformation campaigns is their ability to connect to people’s shared imaginaries. Consequently, counter-disinformation initiatives also need to attend to these imaginaries...

  

ISEAS

Unbundling Regimes and Structural Transformation in Malaysia, August 2023. Technological changes have significant transformative effects on economic activities. The waves of technological innovations in transport and ICT have provided opportunities for globalisation. Malaysia has levied the first unbundling - enabled by lowering of transport costs - to industrialise for five decades. The ICT-driven second unbundling is proving to be more challenging for the country’s manufacturing competitiveness. Weaknesses in the linkages within the technology-services-GVC nexus is a structural weakness that needs to be overcome. This is crucial for effective participation in the third-unbundling.

  

ISEAS

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US Trade Policy Options for Pacific Islands States Require Washington’s Political Commitment, July 2023. The Pacific Islands have emerged as a zone of contestation in the ongoing rivalry between China and the United States. While the US has long been the dominant military power in the region, China is raising its profile through activities like port visits, military exercises, and establishing diplomatic and security ties with regional states like Kiribati and the Solomon Islands. In 2018, Chinese leader Xi Jinping visited Papua New Guinea for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. President Biden was supposed to visit PNG in May 2023, in the first ever visit of a sitting US president to the Pacific Islands, but that trip was scuttled due to the debt ceiling fiasco in Washington...

  

EWC

Sustaining Congressional Engagement with Southeast Asia, June 2023. As a representative institution whose members can outlast presidential administrations, Congress plays a vital role in sustaining long-term US foreign policy commitments. The perception of long-term commitment is particularly important in Southeast Asia, where most states seek to maximize their strategic autonomy by balancing relations among great powers. Thus, expectations about the future behavior of great powers can significantly affect foreign policy choices. Congress speaks through the exercise of its formal powers but also in more subtle ways. Congressional actions on foreign relations operate along three channels. The first channel is support for policies initiated by the executive branch, e.g., passing appropriations, making requested statutory changes, or, at the very least, not obstructing what an administration seeks to do...

  

EWC

Multiculturalism, Identity and Influence Project 2020–2023 Summary, July 2023. The Lowy Institute’s Multiculturalism, Identity and Influence Project (2020–2023), funded by the Department of Home Affairs, comprised three nationally representative surveys of the Australian population of Chinese heritage and three Lowy Institute Analysis papers. A key aim of the Project was to investigate the sentiments of Chinese-Australian communities in the context of growing tensions in bilateral ties between China and Australia. The cornerstone of the Project was the annual Being Chinese in Australia: Public Opinion in Chinese Communities survey report — with all three editions housed on a dedicated online platform. The three surveys conducted from 2020–2022 provide the most comprehensive study on public record of the perspectives of more than five per cent of the Australian population...

 

Lowy

De-risking Authoritarian AI - A Balanced Approach to Protecting Our Digital Ecosystems, July 2023. Artificial intelligence (AI)–enabled systems make many invisible decisions affecting our health, safety and wealth. They shape what we see, think, feel and choose, they calculate our access to financial benefits as well as our transgressions, and now they can generate complex text, images and code just as a human can, but much faster. So it’s unsurprising that moves are afoot across democracies to regulate AI’s impact on our individual rights and economic security, notably in the European Union (EU). But, if we’re wary about AI, we should be even more circumspect about AI-enabled products and services from authoritarian countries that share neither our values nor our interests. And, for the foreseeable future, that means the People’s Republic of China (PRC)...

  

ASPI

Informing Australia’s Next Independent Intelligence Review: Learning From the Past, June 2023. The Australian Government commissions a review of its intelligence community every five to seven years. With July 2023 marking six years since release of the last review’s report and, with funding already allocated in this year’s federal budget, the next one is likely to commence shortly. The best starting place for the forthcoming review is the work that precedes it, so reflection on 2017’s Independent Intelligence Review proves valuable. This report, Informing Australia’s next independent intelligence review, reflects on the experiences of the 2017 review and the implementation of its recommendations, and draws lessons to inform the terms of reference, approach and suggested focus of the next review...

  

ASPI

China in Eurasia: Revisiting BRI Amidst the Russia-Ukraine Crisis, July 2023. This paper discusses China’s trade and connectivity plans under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the Eurasian region and the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Chinese plans. The world order is once again in flux with the rather unpredictable geopolitical moves of Russia, Europe, the U.S., and the rest of the world, leading to a dynamic set-up for nations to evolve their foreign and regional political choices. Most significant of this has been the Russian invasion of Ukraine which has profoundly reconfigured global geo-economics. Geo-economics is the intersection of the global economy and geography that impacts the world in more than one way. One of the examples of this is also the infrastructure-based connectivity initiatives including China’s BRI. The economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis is making analysts question the stability of BRI.

 

ISDP

AUKUS, Advanced Capabilities and Defense Integration in the Indo-Pacific, July 2023. Nearly two years on from the inception of AUKUS in September 2021, the contours of this strategic partnership have begun to take a more concrete shape. Specifically, the roadmap for Pillar I, which aims to equip Australia with conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines (SSN) and develop a new class of SSN, has been released, and there have been further discussions on Pillar II, advanced capabilities. While both pillars support the overarching objective of AUKUS, which is to integrate the defense industrial bases of Australia, the UK, and the U.S., Pillar II in particular reveals its deeper motivation in competing for global pre-eminence in emerging technology. This issue brief examines the aims and strategic rationale of AUKUS, focusing on its pursuit of collective deterrence vis-à-vis China. In doing so, it evaluates some of the opportunities and challenges AUKUS faces moving forward, paying attention to its attempt to develop and equip partners with leading-edge military technologies under a minilateral institutional arrangement.

 

ISDP

EU-Japan-Taiwan Cooperation: Building a Blue Supply Chain, July 2023. The COVID-19 pandemic, the escalating trade war between the United States and China, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have exposed vulnerabilities and weaknesses in the global China-centric economic supply chain as democratic states have experienced significant economic pressures stemming from these external geopolitical occurrences. In this context, democratic states are increasingly falling victim to Chinese economic coercion and trade weaponization as the geopolitical stakes increase. This issue brief discusses the need to reduce dependence on the China-centric global supply chain and explores avenues and challenges that key democratic stakeholders like the EU, Japan, and Taiwan must acknowledge and consider to build a blue supply chain as an alternative to the authoritarian-centered red supply chain.

  

ISDP

South Asia’s Dual Dilemma: Climate Impacts Heighten Conflict Vulnerability, July 2023. South Asia has been confronted with a conflictual crisis for decades now. The arch of vulnerability that this region faces ascends from its long-rooted history of colonialism that left it with a traumatic past and is lingering to date. The conflicts created at that juncture and fortified over time have made this region vulnerable to any internal or external influence. The already declined state of South Asia’s security landscape has been further compromised under the looming climate emergency. With rising temperatures, melting glaciers, and depleting natural resources compounded by South Asia’s internal instability and external intimidations, the region is subject to a mounting dual dilemma. This issue brief looks into two areas of heightened vulnerability for the region—climate-induced migration coincided with conflict escalation and development-induced migration along with the rising energy crises that could become a potential hotspot for conflict in the region.

 

ISDP

Japan’s Indo-Pacific Strategy: The Link with Iran, July 2023. Japan’s “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy” is linked to the Persian Gulf region. Energy resources, concerns about China’s influence on the region’s energy and transit corridors, and the suitable consumption market have made this region and Iran have a special place in Japan’s Indo-Pacific policy. This issue brief discusses how Iran plays an important role by creating a delicate balance and maintaining a suitable distance from China. In addition to providing the energy needed by Japan and creating investment opportunities in the oil, gas and petrochemical industries and ports, Iran can obtain its technological needs from Japan and diversify its corridor routes by creating the North-South Corridor and connecting India to Central Asia and Europe as well. Such a move would ensure that India does not lag behind in the competition with China’s corridors; a move that is also welcomed by Tokyo.

 

ISDP

China’s Pursuit of Food and Energy Security in the Indian Ocean: Consequences for India’s Development, June 2023. China and India are still predominantly rising powers. They are strongly inclined to achieve food and energy security, two priority areas for any nation with a vast population. The possibility of geopolitical flare-ups has been highlighted by China’s ruthless pursuit of all kinds of resources. China’s engagement in the Indian Ocean is not just to have a strong foothold in the region but also to fulfil its domestic demands for energy, food, raw materials, minerals, crude oil, and other essential commodities. This issue brief discusses whether a relentless pursuit of food and energy security in the Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific regions by China will be a cause of concern for New Delhi and how it poses a strategic hindrance to the national and maritime security of India.

 

ISDP
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AUKUS and Critical Minerals: Hedging Beijing’s Pervasive, Clever and Coordinated Statecraft, June 2023. AUKUS has a heavy focus on R&D of military capabilities. A number of departments, including defence, foreign affairs and prime ministerial equivalents are engaged. The science and technology to deliver those capabilities must resolve issues of insecure supply chains. Currently, supply chains for processed critical minerals and their resulting materials aren’t specifically included. Yet all AUKUS capabilities, and the rules-based order that they uphold, depend heavily on critical minerals. China eclipses not only AUKUS for processing those minerals into usable forms, but the rest of the world combined. Without critical minerals, states are open to economic coercion in various technological industries, and defence manufacturing is particularly exposed to unnecessary supply-chain challenges...

  

ASPI

North of 26 Degrees South and the Security of Australia: Views From the Strategist, Volume 7, June 2023. The Northern Australia Strategic Policy Centre’s latest report, North of 26 degrees south and the security of Australia: views from The Strategist, Volume 7, is a series of articles published in The Strategist over the last six months. It builds on previous volumes by identifying critical intersections of national security, nation-building, resilience and Australia’s north. This issue, like previous volumes, includes a wide range of articles sourced from a diverse pool of expert contributors writing on topics as varied as critical minerals, rare earth, equatorial space launch, agriculture, advanced manufacturing, fuel and water security, and defence force posturing. Importantly, it addresses the Defence Strategic from a northern Australian perspective. It also features a foreword by the Honourable Madeleine King MP, Minister for Northern Australia...

  

ASPI

The Big Squeeze. ASPI Defence Budget Brief 2023–2024, May 2023. This is a very different year for the defence budget. We are in a time of significant change and upheaval. Uncertainty is rife, but some fundamentals can help in working through uncertainty, especially in the world of defence policy, planning, capability programming and budget. The order of those words is important. Defence budgets are not arbitrary. Capability requirements must drive budgets. It doesn’t mean that the budget is unlimited but it demands that governments consider proposals for what is required and assess what can be afforded. If budgets drive capability, it risks the true capability needs not being put to government which results in failure to ask of government what they are elected to do – make decisions based on all available information...

  

ASPI

Impactful Mateship: Strengthening the US–Australia Defence Relationship Through Enhanced Mutual Understanding, May 2023. AUKUS, and the Australian Government’s release of the 2023 report of the Defence Strategic Review (DSR), reinforce to Canberra and Washington DC that there’s an urgent need to continue strengthening the US–Australia alliance. Those efforts underpin allied cooperation within the Indo-Pacific, which is an increasingly complex security environment. This report highlights 9 opportunities for both US and Australian defence decision-makers at a vital time in the relationship as it develops in complexity and builds towards the ambitions of AUKUS over the coming decade. A series of ‘quick wins’ for the US DoD are recommended, including arranging more training for inbound DoD personnel and conducting allied-centric training for relevant US-based action officers and planners at US headquarters...

  

ASPI

Smooth Sailing? Australia, New Zealand and the United States Partnering in–and With–the Pacific Islands, May 2023. Australia, New Zealand and the United States should help create an ASEAN-style forum for Pacific island nations to discuss security and manage geopolitical challenges. The call for a dialogue, modelled on the ASEAN regional forum, is one of several recommendations to improve security partnerships and coordination in the region, reducing the risk that the three countries trip over one another and lose sight of the Pacific’s own priorities as they deepen their Pacific ties out of strategic necessity amid China’s growing interest. While focussing on those three countries, this report stresses that wider partnerships should be considered, including with France, India, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom and European Union...

  

ASPI

Southeast Asia Aid Map - Key Findings Report, June 2023. Official development finance plays an important role in financing Southeast Asia’s development, equivalent to around 10% of total government development spending in the region. China is Southeast Asia’s single largest development partner and leads infrastructure financing. Yet, implementation problems have seen the scale of China’s financing decline in recent years. Traditional development partners collectively still dominate development financing in Southeast Asia at 80% of the total. The multilateral development banks lead the way, followed by Japan, Europe, and South Korea. The United States and Australia are mid-sized players. India and the Middle East have become notable sources of non-traditional development finance, with the Islamic Development Bank playing an important role. Climate development finance is increasing, but Southeast Asia will need more support if it is to transition towards resilient, low-carbon development. Intraregional development cooperation is growing, but only makes up a small part of development finance in Southeast Asia.

  

Lowy

Chips, Subsidies, Security, and Great Power Competition, May 2023. Since 2008, government subsidies to industry have sharply increased in the European Union, China, and the United States, with particularly generous subsidies directed to the semiconductor industry. Rising subsidies in the big world economies and the entanglement of national security and commercial motives pose difficult policy issues for countries such as Australia, which cannot match the subsidies provided by the great powers. US–China competition over advanced semiconductors is an awkward instance of such entanglement of national security and commerce, of subsidies and export denials. Australia needs to find its own path between adhering to US views on controlling the sale of strictly military products and technologies, while resisting the inevitable pressure from the United States to extend controls on new commercial products and technologies.

 

Lowy

Digital Threats to Democracy Dialogue Summary Report, June 2023. The Lowy Institute convened the Digital Threats to Democracy (DTD) Dialogue on 12 October 2022. This Dialogue was funded by the New South Wales Department of Premier in Cabinet and was a day-long, closed-door session that brought together a distinguished group of diverse subject matter experts, government officials and civil society stakeholders to examine intersecting digital challenges to democracy. The aim of the Dialogue was to foster connections across subject matter and policy areas in order to spark new ideas and more coordinated approaches to meet these challenges. To foster frank discussion, the session was conducted under Chatham House rules. Therefore the comments and recommendations made during the Dialogue and reflected in this report are not attributed. Additionally, the summary of the Dialogue and recommendations for future consideration should not be taken as endorsed or agreed upon by all Dialogue participants but rather are a reflection of the ideas and topics discussed...

  

Lowy

Building the Australia-PNG Digital Ecosystem,  June 2023. The Covid-19 pandemic was a catalyst for increased digital connectivity globally. In the Pacific, digital transformations are gaining momentum. From a very low base, internet access and mobile phone use is increasing at a steady pace, along with government digital transformation projects spanning health, education, and financial data. There is increasing commercial activity online. Social media is playing a greater role in elections and in keeping people informed of international developments. Papua New Guinea (PNG) has a small, but rapidly growing digital footprint, with new mobile phone, internet, and social media users joining the digital realm every year. The PNG government has a Digital Transformation Policy, but it is stillstruggling to meet the digital infrastructure access needs and expectations of an increasingly digitally savvy youth. The country’s digital development is lagging behind that of other Pacific countries...

  

Lowy

What the Compact Impact Fairness Act Means for Compact Host Governments and Migrants, June 2023. The Biden-Harris Administration’s 2024 Department of the Interior (DOI) budget proposal supports passing the Compact Impact Fairness Act (CIFA). CIFA would restore federal benefits to migrants from three Pacific countries: Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), and the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). Support for CIFA is a welcome development for Compacts of Free Association (COFA) migrants and the US states and territories that host them. Yet, the budget proposal’s omission of funding support for host governments and uncertainty on implementation and prioritization for COFA migrants present acute issues that may linger for years ahead...

  

EWC

China’s 5G Mobile Technology in Asia: US Security Concerns and Regional Economic Priorities, May 2023. Seeing Chinese fifth generation, or “5G,” mobile communications technology as a potential security threat, the US government has been discouraging other countries from using Chinese 5G equipment despite its global popularity. Understanding this issue requires an explanation of American security concerns related to Chinese 5G technology and a review of the steps the US government has taken to ban Chinese equipment from US communications networks. The responses of several Asian countries to American calls for a prohibition against Chinese 5G equipment are varied. While close US allies generally follow the American call to avoid incorporating Chinese communications equipment, some less developed Asian nations have put economic considerations above security concerns...

  

EWC

Washington Declaration: Beyond Korea, What it Means for India? June 2023. In April 2023, South Korea and the United States released the Washington Declaration to reiterate and upgrade their treaty alliance. In outlining a joint nuclear deterrence strategy, the Declaration reaffirmed that South Korea would not pursue independent nuclear capabilities, and instead continue to rely on the alliance-based approach. This paper considers the strategic impact of the Washington Declaration beyond the U.S.-ROK nexus. Highlighting the importance of the agreement on security and stability in the broader Indo-Pacific region, the paper focuses on India’s stake in the new development. In particular, the paper emphasizes that despite its stated focus on the North Korean nuclear threat, the Washington Declaration in fact considers the Chinese and Russian threats in the region...

  

ISDP

A Possible Strategy for the Defense of Taiwan, June 2023. This issue brief examines the possibility of a People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) offensive to capture the island of Taiwan from a military perspective. It analyzes the military geography, the threat perception, and the capability of the PLA to launch an expeditionary force across the Taiwan Straits. It looks at the military capabilities of the ROC Defense Forces and suggests a possible military strategy for Taiwan to defend itself from a PLA attack. All this without the direct intervention of the U.S. and her allies in support of the ROC. It concludes that the planning, conduct, and execution of an expeditionary attack, given the present array of forces and indirect support from the U.S. and allies, will not be without significant costs to China...

  

ISDP

Drivers of U.S.-China Strategic Competition: Understanding the Chinese Perspective, June 2023. The relationship between the United States and China is one of the world’s most important and mutually beneficial bilateral relationships. Nonetheless, it is also complex and contentious, with both countries vying for geopolitical influence and economic dominance. This brief examines drivers of U.S.-China strategic competition from the perspective of Beijing incorporating the prism of Marxist-Leninist ideology, domestic politics in the U.S., China’s needed alignment with Russia, nationalism, technological advancements such as AI, the role of regional players such as ASEAN, Japan, and the E.U., and Comprehensive National Power (CNP). Understanding these analytical lens contributes to a deeper comprehension of China’s security anxieties and worldview that may provide insight to enhance engagement, resilience, and deterrence in bilateral relations with China.

  

ISDP

Awaiting a Pivotal Partnership? The Case of India and South Korea, June 2023. The shift toward showcasing South Korea as a proactive stakeholder in the global arena—beyond its foreign policy limitations that have thus far centered on Northeast Asian security—has unlocked the potential for wider regional engagement and the growth of ‘like-minded’ pivotal states with global ambitions such as Australia, India, France, Germany, and Japan. In this great transition phase in the global order, which is facing the ill-effects of a widening ideological divide, India has emerged as one of the most prominent states with a burgeoning global profile and hence a natural partner for the ROK. The new shift has fueled hopes of greater strategic autonomy in the ROK’s decision-making and greater strategic clarity as a pivotal state in the new geopolitical environment...

  

ISDP

Climate Security in the Indo-Pacific: Priorities and Challenges, May 2023. The climate vulnerabilities of the Indo-Pacific region have grown immensely with grave implications for regional, national, human, and ecological security. Climate action has been prioritized by most countries, including by integrating it into their national security strategies and reiterating the need for cooperation among the countries. Yet there are several impediments to effective collaborative climate action such as the lack of climate finance and geopolitical tensions. Against this backdrop, this issue brief locates climate security within the Indo-Pacific strategies of countries in the region (Australia, New Zealand, the U.S., India, Japan, and South Korea) as well as regional organizations (ASEAN and the Pacific Islands Forum or PIF) besides the European Union (EU), an extra-regional player, and the Quad...

  

ISDP

The Dalai Lama’s Succession: Strategic Realities of the Tibet Question, May 2023. The 14th Dalai Lama Tenzin Gyatso remains one of the most recognized and beloved spiritual leaders of contemporary times. By China, he is viewed in unflattering terms, ranging from being termed a “splittist” to a “wolf in sheep’s clothing”. The question over the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation reflects the larger polemic ideological and political debates about the Central Tibetan Administration (CTA) versus the Communist Party of China (CPC), religious freedom versus materialism, the sovereignty of Tibet versus China’s occupation of it, and history itself. The CPC has put strategies in place to manage the post-Dalai era: From temple/monastry management rules and education policy changes to restrictions on travel by Tibetans, the Party’s strategies have laid the foundation for preparations to mitigate uncertainties associated with the succession process...

  

ISDP

Trends in Southeast Asia 2023 #9: Bruneian Youths on Social Media: Key Trends and Challenges. Over the last decade, Brunei Darussalam has been experiencing a huge increase in Internet penetration and social media usage. As of January 2023, these stand at 98.1 per cent and 94.4 per cent, respectively. Instagram remains the platform with the potential to reach citizens by advertisements (60 per cent), followed by Facebook (57.6 per cent) and Twitter (21.9 per cent) (Kemp 2023). While indicating society’s high reliance on social media platforms for daily interactions and engagements, these statistics also point to these platforms being alternative sites for social engagements. With the proliferation of affordable mobile technology, mobile and fixed broadband availability, and high digital literacy, social media such as Instagram, Twitter and TikTok have become sites where young people share their everyday life experiences and their socio-cultural and religious practices, and create new discourses that effectively shape the nation’s socio-cultural, religious and political landscapes...

  

ISEAS

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June 2023

  

 

 

 

  

 

The Ukraine Effect: Demise or Rebirth of the Global Order? May 2023. Viewed from Western capitals, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is the most consequential event in world affairs since the fall of the Soviet Union in December 1991. On its outcome hang the survival of Ukraine as a sovereign state, the future of European security, the credibility of the West, and the preservation of the rules-based international order. But for much of the world, the Ukraine conflict does not portend the “epochal tectonic shift” described by Chancellor Scholz. It is not an elemental struggle between good and evil, but an unwelcome distraction that diverts attention from more pressing priorities, such as climate change, food insecurity, debt relief, and public health. Few non-Western leaders believe the fate of international order hinges on who wins and loses the war, even as they resent the instability this conflict has caused...

  

Lowy

Countering Chinese Economic Coercion: Enhanced Cooperation Between Australia and Europe, May 2023. China’s increasingly assertive, and at times belligerent, geopolitical positioning over the past decade has led many to conclude that challenging the economic, technological, and military superiority of the United States is now a major objective of the Chinese Communist Party under President Xi Jinping’s leadership. On a number of issues, notably the South China Sea and Taiwan, China has adopted a highly aggressive approach to projecting its interests. And by entering into its recent “no limits” partnership with Russia, China appears increasingly confident in aligning itself politically against the United States and the West...

  

Lowy

Gaming Public Opinion, April 2023. The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) embrace of large-scale online influence operations and spreading of disinformation on Western social-media platforms has escalated since the first major attribution from Silicon Valley companies in 2019. While Chinese public diplomacy may have shifted to a softer tone in 2023 after many years of wolf-warrior online rhetoric, the Chinese Government continues to conduct global covert cyber-enabled influence operations. Those operations are now more frequent, increasingly sophisticated and increasingly effective in supporting the CCP’s strategic goals. They focus on disrupting the domestic, foreign, security and defence policies of foreign countries, and most of all they target democracies...

  

ASPI

Korea Looks to Europe: Its Growing Military-Strategic Cooperation with NATO, May 2023. Korea is looking to Europe in the military-strategic dimension. It wants to boost ties with NATO even as strengthening relations with the AP4 (four Asia-Pacific partners) forms an important aspect of the NATO 2030 agenda. Korea has proactively joined this diplomatic effort, a foreign policy initiative that is unprecedentedly bold for Korea, which had been passively stuck in Northeast Asia. This series of political actions already bring Korea multiple consequences—both positive and negative—which will only increase in number and magnitude. This issue brief examines the Korean perspective and compulsion for strengthening ties with NATO as the world experiences a convergence of regions (Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic) and security dimensions (military, economy, technology, political regime) driven by the U.S., China, and other significant powers. Against this backdrop, Korea needs NATO much more than before given the four key factors—the U.S. push, the need for capable partners, commercial opportunity, and nuclear tripwire. And most likely vice versa.

  

ISDP

The Future of the ADMM-Plus in the Indo-Pacific, May 2023. Since its establishment, the ADMM-Plus has evolved into a valuable component of the regional security architecture. It facilitates not only dialogue among the region’s defense ministers and officials, but also practical initiatives involving the regional militaries to address transnational security concerns. It bears noting that the ADMM-Plus emerged and progressed during a time when circumstances were more conducive for multilateralism in the Indo-Pacific. These circumstances are now changing, with expected implications for regional multilateralism including the ASEAN-led groupings. Looking ahead, whether the ADMM-Plus would continue to retain its relevance in the regional security architecture would arguably depend on the development of three overlapping factors: (i) intra-ASEAN dynamics and the ADMM’s leadership; (ii) major power rivalry and the existence of competing options for multilateralism; and (iii) the attitudes towards practical cooperation under the ADMM-Plus framework. This brief reviews the evolution of the ADMM-Plus as a regional mechanism.

  

ISDP

International Journal of Korean Studies, Volume XXIV, Number 1, 2022  

IJKS

Satisfaction with Government's Handling of COVID-19 in Singapore, April 2023. This paper reviews Singaporeans’ satisfaction with the government’s COVID-19 pandemic management. It also examines perceptions of Singapore’s pandemic response in comparison with other countries or regions, and the importance of government satisfaction in predicting perceptions of Singapore’s pandemic response. Around 71 per cent felt that the restrictions in Singapore were adequate to deal with the pandemic, while 19 per cent felt that there could have been more restrictions implemented and 10 per cent felt that there could have been fewer restrictions implemented...

  

IPS

Asian Development Review, Vol. 40, No. 1, March 2023 (Full Report):
Studies using data from Thailand explore how income uncertainty and borrowing constraints affect children’s education in rural areas and look at how policies have influenced the pace of economic development. Among other topics explored are the factors that affect decisions by women in Bangladesh to engage in home-based work, and the impacts of formal registration on firms in Cambodia.

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