2020 Highlights


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December, 2020

	Strengthening US-Japan-Southeast Asia Cooperation on Connectvity in the Indo-Pacific, November 2020. Connectivity is a bold economic pillar of the Indo-Pacific visions of both the United States and Japan. It presents a great opportunity and also a challenge for U.S.-Japan-Southeast Asia cooperation to shape the future of Indo-Pacific connectivity and economic governance. Japan`s Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) initially focused more on security cooperation, and has now become a comprehensive cooperation framework including regional connectivity with Quality Infrastructure Investments (QII). The U.S. FOIP is also a comprehensive framework, and its economic component appears to be a viable opportunity focusing on infrastructure connectivity, energy and the digital economy backed by the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) under the bipartisan BUILD Act of 2018...	EWC
	Balancing China in the Indo-Pacific: France Joins Hands with – India and Australia, November 2020. Balancing China’s unilateral authoritarian outreach is increasingly becoming a priority for democratic powers. Among European powers, France has taken the lead in shoring up defenses against China. France is also an Indo-Pacific power, and Paris has now joined hands with India and Australia to advance a trilateral that appears to be balancing out China. On September 09, 2020, India, France, and Australia launched a trilateral dialogue with the aim of boosting cooperation to ensure a “peaceful, secure, prosperous and rules-based Indo-Pacific.”1 The meeting marked the formal entrance of a leading European power, France, into an Indo-Pacific orbit and represents the first step of a major, cross-continent effort to question and check China’s autocracy in the region. As such, it may potentially have considerable ramifications, especially if other European powers are encouraged to engage in similar efforts...	ISDP
	Digital Authoritarianism, China and COVID, November 2020. The combination of retreating US leadership and the COVID-19 pandemic has emboldened China to expand and promote its tech-enabled authoritarianism as world’s best practice. The pandemic has provided a proof of concept, demonstrating to the CCP that its technology with ‘Chinese characteristics’ works, and that surveillance on this scale and in an emergency is feasible and effective. With the CCP’s digital authoritarianism flourishing at home, Chinese-engineered digital surveillance and tracking systems are now being exported around the globe in line with China’s Cyber Superpower Strategy. China is attempting to set new norms in digital rights, privacy, and data collection, simultaneously suppressing dissent at home and promoting the CCP’s geostrategic goals...	Lowy
	Submarines: Your Questions Answered, November 2020. Prime Minister John Howard famously coined the term ‘barbeque stopper’ to refer to a political controversy so hot that it was likely to make backyard diners stop mid-shrimp-sizzle to debate the big issue of the day. If ever the specialist world of defence procurement has produced a national barbeque stopper, it would be over the question of Australia’s future submarine. Why are they so expensive? Why do we need 12 of them? Why build them here? Why not nuclear propulsion? Why a French design? Why not an American, German, Japanese or Swedish design? Aren’t submarines obsolete, to be replaced by drones? Won’t technology make the oceans transparent? There are many questions and few, if any, easily accessible, plain-English explanations. This ASPI study attempts to answer the many questions that Australians pose when it comes to the design, acquisition, cost, operational service and strategic implications of submarines...	ASPI
	Trends in Southeast Asia 2020 #14: Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS): Unifier of the Ummah?. The Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS) is no stranger to coalition politics. It has a long history of working with others, both in government and in opposition. Up until 2018, it used the framework of tahaluf siyasi as the guide to forming coalitions. Under the pretext of tahaluf siyasi or political coalition, PAS joined the Barisan Nasional (BN) government in 1974. It was also a key player in the Angkatan Perpaduan Ummah (APU), Barisan Alternatif (BA) and Pakatan Rakyat (PR) opposition coalitions. But in the lead up to GE14, PAS decided to form the Gagasan Sejahtera coalition with much smaller parties—Berjasa and Ikatan. It dominated this coalition and the two partners were largely insignificant. After GE14, PAS decided to partner with UMNO in Muafakat Nasional, under the pretext of a new strategy called ta’awun siyasi or political cooperation. This is a looser partnership arrangement, in which the partners are not strictly bound to each other...	ISEAS
	Trends in Southeast Asia 2020 #13: Indonesia’s Ministry of Religious Affairs under Joko Widodo. Indonesia is the most populous Muslim country in the world, with 87.18 per cent of its 260 million population embracing the Islamic faith. However, Indonesia is neither an Islamic state nor a secular one. It adopts Pancasila as the state ideology but has a Ministry of Religious Affairs (MORA) overseeing six official religions. MORA has its genesis in Dutch colonial rule (1602–1942). It was strengthened during the Japanese occupation (1942–45) and then sustained by the post-independence Indonesian government (after 1945). The decision to keep MORA was to compensate those who had aspired for the enactment of the Jakarta Charter in the era of Sukarno but failed. MORA has always been the arena for contestation betweenthe traditionalist Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) and the modernist Muhammadiyah. Both organizations eye not only the minister post, or leadership positions in the bureaucracy, but also lower ranking positions.•This article examines how MORA...	ISEAS
	The BRI in Malaysia’s Port Sector: Drivers of Success and Failure. November 2020. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been characterised as a large-scale initiative to boost the movement of goods and services, capital, and people from China to Southeast Asia and beyond. Transport and logistics are a key aspect of this enterprise, with many projects focusing on railways, road networks, and ports receiving priority attention. However, BRI-related initiatives are often cast in binary terms, with agency and autonomy almost uniquely ascribed to China-based firms and funders, and very little attributed to host country agents or their interests. Since 2013, Malaysia has received substantial inflows of BRI-related funds for infrastructure, particularly railways and ports...	ISEAS
	The Vulnerability of Jobs to COVID-19: The Case of Malaysia, November 2020. Malaysia’s economy has been adversely affected by COVID-19 and the subsequent mobility restrictions implemented to flatten the curve of the pandemic. This study estimates the extent and distribution of jobs most vulnerable to COVID-19. It finds that about 64.5 percent of jobs in Malaysia cannot be performed from home, after adjusting for internet access while about 50.9 percent of jobs require high levels of physical proximity. These jobs are those that are most vulnerable to COVID-19, particularly if strict mobility restrictions are reinstated. Workers most at risk are primarily those that were already vulnerable before the crisis due to their relatively low education, low level of income and advanced or very young age. Jobs in less developed regions of Malaysia are also particularly vulnerable. Against this backdrop, the study argues that proactive social protection and jobs policies are needed to mitigate the employment impacts of COVID-19 in Malaysia...	ISEAS
	Monetary Authority of Singapore: Macroeconomic Review, Volume XIX, Issue 2, October 2020 (Full Report, Presentation Slides for Briefing): Monetary Policy Statement Chapter 1: The International Economy Chapter 2: The Singapore Economy Chapter 3: Labour Market and Inflation Chapter 4: Macroeconomic Policy Special Feature A Asian Monetary Policy Forum 2020 Special Feature B Issues and Challenges in the Fiscal Policy Response to COVID-19 Special Feature C Forecasting Singapore GDP Using SPF Data	MAS
	Information Paper on Culture and Conduct Practices of Financial Institutions, September 2020. Information on culture and conduct outcomes financial institutions should work towards in specific areas such as governance, hiring, communication channels and performance management. The paper also provides examples of good practices gathered from a thematic survey and dialogue sessions conducted by MAS with banks, insurers and capital market intermediaries.	MAS
	Latest APEC publications: APEC Conference on Cooperation Initiatives for Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) Prevention and Control, November 2020 Workshop on Manufacturing-Related Services and Environmental Services: Contribution to the Final Review of Manufacturing-Related Services Action Plan (MSAP) and Environmental Services Action Plan (ESAP), November 2020 Study of APEC Economies’ TBT and SPS Specific Trade Concerns: An Analysis from the APEC Cross Cutting Principles on Non-Tariff Measures, November 2020 Improving Networks of Community Mental Health Services in the Asia-Pacific Economies, November 2020 Final Review of APEC's Progress Towards the Bogor Goals, November 2020 APEC Connectivity Blueprint: The 2020 Mid-Term Review, November 2020 APEC Strategy for Strengthening Quality Growth (ASSQG): Final Assessment, November 2020 APEC in Charts 2020 Fact sheet: 2020 APEC Senior Officials' Report on Economic and Technical Cooperation, November 2020 2020 CTI Annual Report to Ministers, November 2020 APEC Senior Officials' Report on Economic and Technical Cooperation 2020, November 2020 2020 APEC Economic Policy Report, November 2020 Fact sheet: 2020 APEC Economic Policy Report, November 2020 APEC Regional Trends Analysis - New Virus, Old Challenges and Rebuilding a Better Asia-Pacific; APEC amid COVID-19: Navigating Risks and Opportunities toward Resilience, November 2020 Bridging the Gender Gap: Gender Mainstreaming and Women Empowerment as a Game Changer in Anti-Corruption Initiatives, November 2020 Roadmap for the Integration of Sustainable Energy and Transport in Small Islands, November 2020 Implementing Inclusion: APEC Case Studies on Inclusive Policies, November 2020	APEC
	Latest ADB Publications: Asia small and medium-sized enterprise monitor 2020: Volume II—COVID-19 Impact on Micro, Small, and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Developing Asia, November 2020 Trade and Maritime Transport Trends in the Pacific, November 2020 Putting People at the Heart of Policy Design: Using Human-Centered Design to Serve All, November 2020 Future of Regional Cooperation in Asia and the Pacific, November 2020	ADB
	Latest ADB Working Paper Series: Valuing Unpaid Care Work in Bhutan, November 2020	ADB
	Latest ADBI Working Paper Series: Rebalancing Subsidies in Market-Based Energy Sectors: Synergies and Obstacles in Developing and Transition Economies, November 2020 A Preliminary Evaluation of Marinized Offshore Charging Stations for Future Electric Ships, November 2020 Indonesia’s Financial Markets and Monetary Policy Dynamics Amid the Covid-19 Pandemic, Noveember 2020	ADB


November, 2020

	The Point of No Return: The 2020 Election and the Crisis of American Foreign Policy, October 2020. In his first term, President Donald Trump tried to overturn key principles of American foreign policy since the Second World War — alliances, free trade, and support for democracy and human rights. His effort was blunted by members of his own administration and Congress. But we are now at the point of no return. If Trump is re-elected, he will be vindicated and emboldened. He will surround himself with loyalists and will act without constraint. The world may be irrevocably altered — alliances may come to an end, the global economy could close, and democracy could go into rapid retreat...	Lowy
	2020 Asia Power Index Key Findings Report. The annual Asia Power Index — launched by the Lowy Institute in 2018 — measures resources and influence to rank the relative power of states in Asia. The project maps out the existing distribution of power as it stands today, and tracks shifts in the balance of power over time. The Index ranks 26 countries and territories in terms of their capacity to shape their external environment — its scope reaching as far west as Pakistan, as far north as Russia, and as far into the Pacific as Australia, New Zealand and the United States. The 2020 edition — which covers three years of data — is the most comprehensive assessment of the changing distribution of power in Asia so far. Among other things, it aims to sharpen the debate on the geopolitical consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic...	Lowy
	The East-West Center - October Asia Pacific Bulletins: New Delhi’s Quest for Quantum Technologies Measuring Shinzo Abe’s Impact on the Indo-Pacific Riparian Governance in South Asia: Many Rivers to Cross A Role Model for Water Governance in a Shared Basin: the Example of the Danube Lessons from Australia’s Intra-Country Transboundary Rivers Governance Stakeholder Engagement on Transboundary Water Management in Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam The Need to Move from Water Government to Water Governance Involving Civil Society Stakeholder engagement in the Mekong River: Relevant Findings from the Blue Peace Index Negotiating Transboundary River Governance in Myanmar United States-Canada Transboundary Water Governance Prioritizes Stakeholder Engagement From Transparent to Transparency: The Evolution of the Mekong River Commission's Prior Consultation Process Forward the Mekong-U.S. Partnership	EWC
	Next Steps for US-Japan Collaboration on Energy Infrastructure, October 2020. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has re-centered discussion of geopolitical competition in Asia around infrastructure. Responding both to BRI and the region’s well-known infrastructure gap, the United States has launched efforts to unlock US private investment for infrastructure. Japan’s engagements in the region emphasize high-quality infrastructure and best practices (an implicit criticism of China’s sometimes less rigorous standards). The foreign policy approaches of the United States and Japan dovetail nicely and have led to many new initiatives and institutional partnerships, as well as the quality-focused Blue Dot Network. But despite the two countries’ intentions to work collaboratively, their efforts have been held back by differences in organizational practices, the lengthy overhaul of US financing, and a lack of immediate movement from US-Japan consortia...	EWC
	Cyber-Enabled Foreign Interference in Elections and Referendums, October 2020. Over the past decade, state actors have taken advantage of the digitisation of election systems, election administration and election campaigns to interfere in foreign elections and referendums.Their activity can be divided into two attack vectors. First, they’ve used various cyber operations, such as denial of service (DoS) attacks and phishing attacks, to disrupt voting infrastructure and target electronic and online voting, including vote tabulation. Second, they’ve used online information operations to exploit the digital presence of election campaigns, politicians, journalists and voters. Together, these two attack vectors (referred to collectively as ‘cyber-enabled foreign interference’ in this report because both are mediated through cyberspace) have been used to seek to influence voters and their turnout at elections, manipulate the information environment and diminish public trust in democratic processes...	ASPI
	The Cost of Defence 2020–2021, Part 2: ASPI 2020–2021 Defence Budget Brief, October 2020. The big defence news in the past year was in the 2020 Defence Strategic Update (DSU) released by the Australian Government on 1 July. Despite the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the DSU ended speculation about the defence budget and reaffirmed the government’s commitment to the robust funding line presented in the 2016 Defence White Paper (2016 DWP). It also extended that funding line for a further four years. Part 1 of this year’s The cost of Defence focused on the DSU. It noted that the defence budget is projected to grow past 2% of GDP, and at a faster rate than before the Covid-19 pandemic hit, potentially to around 2.4% of GDP. Measured from a starting point in 2019–20, the budget is planned to grow by a remarkable 87.4% over the coming decade. Part 2 of The cost of Defence, this one, focuses on the 2020–21 defence budget, the release of which, along with the rest of the Budget, was delayed from May to October due to the pandemic...	ASPI
	Critical Technologies and the Indo-Pacific: A New India-Australia Partnership, October 2020. This report by ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre and India’s Observer Research Foundation argues that as the India-Australia bilateral relationship continues to grow and evolve, both governments should invest in the construction of a new India–Australia partnership on technology. The foundation for such a partnership already exists, and further investment areas of complementary interests could stimulate regional momentum in a range of key critical and emerging technology areas including in 5G, Artificial Intelligence, quantum technologies, space technologies and in critical minerals. The report contains 14 policy recommendations that will help build this new technology partnership...	ASPI
	Economic Coercion: Boycotts and Sanctions-Preferred Weapons of War, October 2020. This report argues that the growing use of economic coercion by both China and the United States is an emerging risk for business and undermines the world trading system. Australian businesses that have in good faith taken up the opportunities offered by the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement, signed in 2015, now find themselves facing the potential loss of market access as the Chinese administration retaliates over Australian government policies on a coronavirus inquiry and the next generation internet network. Australian businesses are not the targets of US sanctions, but US extra-territorial reach means they are at risk of serious collateral damage if they even inadvertently transact with any individual or organisation that is...	ASPI
	The Flipside of China’s Central Bank Digital Currency, October 2020. China’s central bank digital currency, known as ‘DC/EP’ (Digital Currency / Electronic Payment), is rapidly progressing and, if successful, would have major international implications that have not yet been widely considered by policymakers. DC/EP would have ramifications for governments, investors, and companies, including China’s own tech champions. It has the potential to create the world’s largest centralised repository of financial transactions data and, while it may address some financial governance challenges, such as money laundering, it would also create unprecedented opportunities for surveillance. The initial impact of a successful DC/EP project will be primarily domestic, but little thought has been given to the longer term and global implications. DC/EP could be exported overseas via the digital wallets of Chinese tourists, students and businesspeople...	ASPI
	Taiwan-Paraguay Relations: Convergent Trajectories, October 2020. Paraguay is Taiwan’s last remaining diplomatic partner in South America and one of a mere 15 states worldwide to still officially recognize the Republic of China (ROC). As Beijing’s efforts to reduce Taipei’s international space have grown, intense lobbying to review diplomatic policy has also been felt in Asunción. Especially after El Salvador cut ties with Taipei in 2018, concerns grew as to whether the days were also likely numbered for Taiwan’s only South American stronghold. Yet the administration of President Mario Abdo Benítez has remained committed to a diplomatic relationship with Taipei. Soon after Salvador’s realignment towards China, Taiwan’s Tsai Ing-wen met with Benítez during which the Paraguayan president referred to Taiwan as “an eternal brother.”...	ISDP
	Fijian Leadership in the Pacific: Charting a New Course? October 2020. Amidst a changing geopolitical environment, issues of domestic politics, social concerns, as well as climate change related risks, the Pacific island nation of Fiji has set out on a path to reconcile its troubled past with ambitions of achieving regional leadership. The message seems clear: Suva will neither recede from seeking a leading role in the Pacific region nor will it be a pawn in a game of great power competition despite the growing economic pressure it faces...	ISDP
	Trends in Southeast Asia 2020 #12: Federal-State Relations under the Pakatan Harapan Government. On 9 May 2018, Malaysia’s Barisan Nasional (BN) government lost the country’s 14th general election (GE14). Replacing it was the Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, made up of four parties, three of which had had experience cooperating with each other for a decade, namely Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), the Democratic Action Party (DAP) and Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah). The fourth was the new Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM) led by Dr Mahathir Mohamad. The election also saw equally significant changes at the state government level. PH now controlled seven states in total, up from two, while BN went from controlling ten states to retaining but two...	ISEAS
	Latest ADB Working Paper Series: Debt Buildup and Currency Vulnerability: Evidence from Global Markets, October 2020 Trajectories to High Income: Growth Dynamics in Japan, the People’s Republic of China, and the Republic of Korea, October 2020 The Impact of Vocational Training on Labor Market Outcomes in the Philippines, October 2020 Assessing the Impact of the United States–People’s Republic of China Trade Dispute Using a Multiregional Computable General Equilibrium Model, September 2020	ADB
	Latest ADBI Working Paper Series: Energy Infrastructure for Decarbonizing Other Energy Sectors through Renewable Electricity – A Spatio-Temporal Analysis from Useful Energy Demand to Renewable Energy Supply of Sector Coupling Pathways Based on the German Case, October 2020 Energy Efficiency in ASEAN: Trends and Financing Schemes, October 2020 What Drives International Stock Return Comovements? October 2020 Financing of Energy Efficiency in Public Goods: The Case of Street Lighting Systems in Indonesia, October 2020 Impacts of Wholesale Electricity Price under Varying Carbon Price Levels on Carbon Emissions and Economic Output in Australia, October 2020 Are Public–Private Partnerships a Solution to the Infrastructure Backwardness of Tajikistan? October 2020 Land Use Management Strategies for Equitable Infrastructure and Urban Development: Overview of Strategies and Tools, October 2020 Narrow Gender Earnings Gap in the Urban Areas of the People’s Republic of China: To What Extent Does Service Economy Matter? October 2020	ADB
	Latest ADB Publications: Financial Integration and Macrofinancial Linkages in Asia: Crises, Responses, and Policy Considerations, October 2020 The Future of Inclusive Finance: 3rd Asian Finance Forum Conference Proceedings, October 2020 Asia Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Monitor 2020 – Volume 1: Country and Regional Reviews, October 2020 Accelerating Climate and Disaster Resilience and Low-Carbon Development Through the COVID-19 Recovery, October 2020 2019 CAREC Transport Sector Annual Report, October 2020 Working Paper on Public Health Innovations for COVID-19: Finding, Trusting, and Scaling Innovation, October 2020 Key Management Issues for Low-Volume Rural Roads in Asia and the Pacific, Published 2020 Green Finance Strategies for Post-COVID-19 Economic Recovery in Southeast Asia. Greening Recoveries for People and Planet, October 2020 The Potential for Foreign Investment in a Domestic Credit Rating Agency in Viet Nam, September 2020	ADB
	Latest APEC publications: Renewed APEC Agenda for Structural Reform (RAASR) - Final Review Report, October 2020 Manual on Domestic Innovation Systems and Networks, October 2020 Summary Report: Second APEC Low-Carbon Model Town (LCMT) Symposium, October 2020 Women-Owned Business in Cross-Border E-Commerce: A Diagnostic Toolkit, October 2020 Food Security Response Measures to COVID-19, September 2020 Research on Forms of Low-Carbon Energy System and Best Practices for APEC Sustainable Cities, September 2020 Trade Facilitation by Ensuring a Safer Food Supply through Cross-border E-commerce, September 2020	APEC


October, 2020

	High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecasts Current Quarter Model: 2020Q4, October 2020. Disrupted by the COVID-19, Hong Kong’s economy dropped by 9% in the first half of 2020. With the arrival of the third wave of pandemic in 20Q3, Hong Kong’s real GDP is estimated to remain subdued, but with a lesser drop of 6.5%, compared to the same period last year.With the pandemic receding recently and with continued government stimulus packages, the drop is expected to narrow further. The economy is estimated to drop by 4.5% in 20Q4. Unemployment rate is expected to slightly worsen to 6.4% in 20Q4, from the estimated 6.2% in 20Q3. Hong Kong’s GDP is expected to shrink by 7.2% for the year 2020 as a whole, representing a 1.7 percentage points downward revision from our previous forecast...	HKU
	China's Pandemic Policy, September 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic threatened to damage China’s international reputation just as the Chinese government under Xi Jinping was peaking in its promotion of China as a model political system and superior international citizen. Beijing launched a massive diplomatic effort aimed at both foreign governments and foreign societies. The goal was to overcome initial negative publicity and to recast China as an efficient and heroic country in the eyes of international public opinion. The crisis created an opening for China to make gains in its international leadership credentials as the world saw the superpower United States falter. Ultimately, however, Chinese pandemic diplomacy contributed to a net decrease in China’s global prestige, largely because domestic political imperatives motivated behavior that generated international disapproval and distrust for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) government...	EWC
	The United States and Fiji Reaffirm Security Assistance Cooperation, September 2020. The United States and Fiji continue to strengthen security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region. Ties between the regional partners endured throughout Fiji’s 2006 military takeover and resultant domestic political challenges. During this period Washington’s engagement with Suva included humanitarian assistance/disaster response, maritime security, law enforcement cooperation, counter-narcotics, and anti-trafficking of vulnerable populations. The United States also supported Fiji’s participation in existing United Nations Peacekeeping Operations. In turn Fiji continued to support U.S. initiatives regarding United Nations General Assembly resolutions and kept doors open for development aid and private sector investment opportunities...	EWC
	Japan’s Counter-Strike Debate Amid the Post-Prime Minister Abe Leadership Race, September 2020. Japanese Defense Minister Taro Kono on June 15 announced the cancellation of the planned procurement of two Aegis Ashore systems from the United States. The cancellation, which reportedly was discussed and decided only by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga in advance, left a gap in the country’s missile defense against the growing missile threats from its neighbors. The Aegis Ashore decision prompted the government to revise the National Security Strategy (NSS) within 2020. As the NSS is the basis for the National Defense Program Outline (NDPO), the latter is also being revised. Kono in the Lower House Committee on Security on July 8 testified that policy considerations by the government would include possession of “enemy base strike capabilities.”...	EWC
	The Australia-India Strategic Partnership: Accelerating Security Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, September 2020. After five decades of testy or distant strategic relations, India and Australia began in the early 2000s to forge an increasingly cooperative defence and security partnership. The primary drivers were similar concerns about China’s rise, behaviour, and assertiveness, as well as converging views about the regional strategic landscape. The decreasing salience of their divergences — Cold War-era geopolitics, India’s nuclear status, strained people-to-people ties, and shallow economic and trade links — also helped create more favourable conditions. Starting slowly in 2000, and accelerating in 2006 and 2014, the Australia–India strategic relationship began to involve policy dialogues, military exercises, defence exchanges, and security arrangements of greater frequency and sophistication...	Lowy
	Ensuring a Trusted 5g Ecosystem of Vendors and Technology, September 2020. 5G will be the next generation of mobile telecommunications. There are differing views on how quickly it will become commonplace and exactly what form it will take, but it will ultimately transform much of what we do and how society functions. The trustworthiness, security and resilience of 5G networks will therefore be critical. A key part of this will be the partnerships that network operators form with vendors to provide and maintain the network infrastructure. There’s now a good understanding that 5G will underpin critical national infrastructure in a way that previous telecommunication technologies don’t, and that supply-chain trust and security are key national security issues. Australia and some other countries have eliminated specific vendors from their 5G supply chains, but the space is globally contested and there is no consensus on what happens next...	ASPI
	After COVID-19: Australia, the Region and Multilateralism (Volume 2), September 2020. The global Covid-19 crisis continues to dominate the international strategic environment, fuelling uncertainty about the future. The only thing that’s certain is that this pandemic will be with us for some time yet, meaning that Australia, like other nations, needs to be prepared to manage its response to the pandemic while simultaneously focusing on the future.This volume of After Covid-19 builds on volume 1 and identifies some of the future challenges and opportunities as they relate to Australia’s role in the region and the multilateral system.	ASPI
	Covid-19 Disinformation & Social Media Manipulation, September 2020. A range of actors are manipulating the information environment to exploit the COVID-19 crisis for strategic gain. ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre is tracking many of these state and non-state actors online, and will occasionally publish investigative, data-driven reporting that will focus on the use of disinformation, propaganda, extremist narratives and conspiracy theories by these actors. The bulk of ASPI’s data analysis uses our in-house Influence Tracker tool - a machine learning and data analytics capability that draws out insights from multi-language social media datasets. This new tool can ingest data in multiple languages and auto-translate, producing insights on topics, sentiment, shared content, influential accounts, metrics of impact and posting patterns...	ASPI
	TikTok and WeChat: Curating and Controlling Global Information Flows, September 2020. While most major international social media networks remain banned from the Chinese market in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Chinese social media companies are expanding overseas and building up large global audiences. Some of those networks—including WeChat and TikTok—pose challenges, including to freedom of expression, that governments around the world are struggling to deal with. The Chinese ‘super-app’ WeChat, which is indispensable in China, has approximately 1.2 billion monthly active users worldwide, including 100 million installations outside of China. The app has become the long arm of the Chinese regime, extending the PRC’s techno-authoritarian reach into the lives of its citizens and non-citizens in the diaspora...	ASPI
	The Chinese Communist Party’s Coercive Diplomacy, September 2020. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is increasingly deploying coercive diplomacy against foreign governments and companies. Coercive diplomacy isn’t well understood, and countries and companies have struggled to develop an effective toolkit to push back against and resist it. This report tracks the CCP’s use of coercive diplomacy over the past 10 years, recording 152 cases of coercive diplomacy affecting 27 countries as well as the European Union. The data shows that there’s been a sharp escalation in these tactics since 2018. The regions and countries that recorded the most instances of coercive diplomacy over the last decade include Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand and East Asia....	ASPI
	Chinese Investments in Industrial Parks: Indonesia and Malaysia Compared, September 2020. Indonesia and Malaysia are keen to use Chinese investments in industrial parks to foster industrial development in their respective countries. This paper seeks to compare Chinese investments in two industrial parks. Specifically, it analyses changes made in the investment climate in each country to facilitate inflows of Chinese investments for the development of the Indonesian-Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP) and the Malaysia-China Industrial Park (MCKIP). Investment climate refers to the FDI institutions in a country that are used for facilitating foreign investments. For Chinese investments in industrial parks, a pertinent question to ask is whether these investments are privileged in terms of FDI institutional arrangements and their differences from the existing investment institutional arrangements in a country. The paper finds that Indonesia and Malaysia made special arrangements to facilitate Chinese investments in the two parks although differences also abound in the way FDI is facilitated.	ISEAS
	COVID-19 and the Poor, September 2020, September 2020. COVID-19 not only highlights existing inequalities, it exacerbates them. Not only do the poor have higher COVID-19 infection and mortality rates, they suffer disproportionately from curtailment measures. As governments try and flatten the infection curve, the misery curve measuring the loss of incomes, livelihoods and lives has been rising. These costs tend to accelerate the longer the lockdown is in place, contributing to an increase in violations that can reduce the effectiveness of the measure itself. In countries without broad-based safety nets, it is no longer a choice between lives and livelihoods because they are the same for the poor. While developed nations debate the trade-off between saving lives and destroying livelihoods, poor countries must consider the trade-off between lives lost through destroyed livelihoods and lives lost to the virus. These ground realities suggest that targeted, time-bound measures rather than prolonged general lockdowns should be considered in poor countries, should infections start rising, while increasing targeted testing.	ISEAS
	Xi Jinping and the Administrative Hierarchy and Subdivisions in China, August 2020. China’s leadership under Xi Jinping has witnessed fundamental changes in its administrative hierarchy and subdivisions with a major focus on centralization. Xi’s consolidation of power and marginalization of factional voices within the government through initiatives such as the anti-corruption campaign have so far proven to be potent. His efforts to reassert central control are driving the administration to usher into a new era of industrialization and urbanization, enabling China to modernize and fulfil its two centenary goals of (a) establishing a moderately prosperous society by 2021 and (b) establishing a “strong, affluent and modern country” by 2049. At the same time, Xi’s efforts to focus on urbanization and industrialization is supporting economic development, which is allowing China to attain its core objectives, and the overarching goal often described as the “Chinese Dream” of national rejuvenation...	ISDP
	Xi Jinping and Constitutional Revisions in China, August 2020. The Party Constitution of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the “un-written” State Constitution of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) determine the legal developments that take place in the country while accentuating the already blurred lines between State and Party. How does the CPC, and President Xi Jinping, serve as the drivers of constitutionalism and transcend the theoretical and political powers of the State? This Focus Asia paper seeks to answer this question and offers an overview of the amendments to the State Constitution, while also highlighting changes made to the Party Constitution that have taken place under Xi Jinping, who serves as the General Secretary of the CPC, Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), and the President of the PRC. The paper attempts to review the nuances attached to such revisions that are emblematic in an authoritarian system to uphold regime stability...	ISDP
	U.S.-North Korea Denuclearization Negotiations: An Irresolvable Issue? June 2020. This essay is part of an ongoing series by ISDP’s Korea Center to provide different perspectives on peacebuilding on the Korean Peninsula. In so doing, it recognizes that peacebuilding is a long-term process and involves different dimensions, from the diplomatic and military to economic and societal. Despite previous efforts, the North Korean nuclear issue has remained unresolved for six decades since the country, with the assistance of the Soviet Union, began constructing nuclear facilities at Yongbyon in the early 1960s. Over the past decades, each U.S. administration, from Clinton to Trump, has concluded its own agreement either bilaterally or multilaterally with Pyongyang: notably the Agreed Framework of 1994, the Joint Statement of September 19 of the Six Party Talks in 2005, the short-lived “Leap Day Deal” of February 29, 2012, and the latest Singapore Joint Statement in June 2018. Despite these achievements, after extensive negotiations and partial implementation, eventually all past agreements collapsed...	ISDP
	Latest APEC publications: Handbook on Obligations in International Investment Treaties, Published 2020 APEC Energy Overview 2019 Changing LNG Market Dynamics – Implications on Supply Security in the APEC Region, September 2020 APEC Young Enterpreneurs Kick off, September 2020 Coordinating Standards for Cool Roof Testing and Performance, September 2020	APEC
	Latest ADBI Working Paper Series: Analysis of Brexit and Its Policy Lessons for Asian Integration, September 2020 Electricity Cross-Subsidies in the People’s Republic of China: Equity, Reverse Ramsey Pricing, and Welfare Analysis, September 2020 Green Taxes, R&D Investments, and Emission Abatement, September 2020 The Viability of Green Bonds as a Financing Mechanism for Green Buildings in ASEAN, September 2020 Energy Prices and the Economic Feasibility of Using Hydrogen Energy for Road Transport in the People’s Republic of China, September 2020 The Impact of Infrastructure on Trade in Central Asia, September 2020 Off-Balance-Sheet Equity: The Engine for Energy Efficiency Capital Mobilization, September 2020 Quantifying the Economic Impact of Disasters on Businesses Using Mobility Data, September 2020 Reevaluating the Economic Benefits of the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR)–People’s Republic of China High-Speed Rail and Its Implications for Fiscal Stability of the Lao PDR, September 2020 Estimating Causal Effects of BRI Infrastructure Projects Based on the Synthetic Control Method, September 2020 Does Infrastructure Facilitate Trade Connectivity? Evidence from ASEAN, August 2020 The People’s Republic of China Connecting Europe, August 2020 Unleashing Market-Based Approaches to Drive Energy Efficiency Interventions in India: An Analysis of the Perform, Achieve, Trade (PAT) Scheme, August 2020 What Are the Determinants of Fuel Subsidies in Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Countries? August 2020 Understanding Gas Pricing Mechanisms: Implications for the Asian Market, August 2020 Blue Economy and Sustainable Tourism Management in Coastal Zones: Learning from Experiences, August 2020 The Evolution of the European Stability Mechanism: Lessons for Asian Integration, August 2020 The Role of Fiscal Incentives in Promoting Energy Efficiency in the Industrial Sector: Case Studies from Asia, August 2020	ADB
	Latest ADB Publications: Asia Bond Monitor, September 2020 The Bond Market in Hong Kong, China An ASEAN+3 Bond Market Guide Update, September 2020 Aging Asia and the Pacific: Singapore's Long-Term Care System-Adapting to Population Aging, Published 2020 ADB’s Rapid COVID-19 Response in Southeast Asia, September 2020 How COVID-19 Is Changing the World: A Statistical Perspective, Volume II, Published 2020 COVID-19 Recovery: A Pathway to a Low-Carbon and Resilient Future, Published 2020 Reviving Tourism amid the COVID-19 Pandemic, September 2020 Renewable Energy Tariffs and Incentives in Indonesia: Review and Recommendations, September 2020	ADB
	Asian Development Review, Vol. 37, No. 2, 2020 (Full Report): It covers topics that include reducing arsenic poisoning, borrowing versus saving among migrant workers, the role of knowledge transfers in promoting balanced growth, and trade volatility. ADB COVID-19 Policy Database: A Guide Evaluating Strategies to Reduce Arsenic Poisoning in South Asia: A View from the Social Sciences Does the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce Align Private Firms with the Goals of the People’s Republic of China’s Belt and Road Initiative? The Borrowing Puzzle: Why Do Filipino Domestic Workers in Hong Kong, China Borrow Rather than Dissave? Impacts of an Information and Communication Technology-Assisted Program on Attitudes and English Communication Abilities: An Experiment in a Japanese High School Analyzing the Sources of Misallocation in Indian Manufacturing: A Gross-Output Approach Trade Volatility in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Plus Three: Impacts and Determinants Could Weather Fluctuations Affect Local Economic Growth? Evidence from Counties in the People’s Republic of China Human Capital as Engine of Growth: The Role of Knowledge Transfers in Promoting Balanced Growth within and across Countries	ADB
	Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2020 (Full Report, and Special Supplement): Part I: Sustainable Development Goals Part II: Regional Trends and Tables Part III: Global Value Chains Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2020 covers 49 economies: Afghanistan, Armenia, Australia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, China, Cook Islands, Fiji Islands, Georgia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kiribati, Republic of Korea, Kyrgyz Republic, Lao, Malaysia, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nauru, Nepal, Niue, New Zealand, Pakistan, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Samoa, Singapore, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Taipei, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Turkmenistan, Tuvalu, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu, and Viet Nam.	ADB
	Asian Development Outlook 2020 Update: Wellness in Worrying Times (Full Report. Theme Chapter and Highlights). As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to disrupt global economic activity, developing Asia's gross domestic product is now expected to contract by 0.7% in 2020. GDP is projected to grow by 6.8% in 2021. This is the region's first recession in nearly 6 decades. Excluding high-income newly industrialized economies, regional GDP is expected to contract by 0.5% this year before growing by 7.2% next year. Softening demand and subdued food prices will keep inflation benign. The inflation forecast is revised down from 3.2% to 2.9% for 2020 and maintained at 2.3% for 2021. The threat of a prolonged COVID-19 pandemic and a return to more stringent containment measures is the main risk to the outlook. While economies in developing Asia remain resilient, continued policy support is needed to underpin recovery...	ADB


September, 2020

	Japan’s Demographic Shifts and Regional Security Challenges Ahead, August 2020. Japan is one of the first major countries in the contemporary world to experience population decline. Today there are about one and a half million fewer Japanese than a decade ago, a decline in population that will dramatically intensify in the coming years; declining roughly eight million in the 2020s and ten million in the 2030s alone. Some, such as Brad Glosserman in Peak Japan: The End of Great Ambitions, argue that Japan’s changing demographics will lead to a more inward-looking Japan in the coming years...	EWC
	Are America’s East Asia Allies Willing and Able to Host U.S. Intermediate-Range Missiles? August 2020. Washington’s withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in early August 2019 frees it to deploy long-range, ground-launched missiles for the first time since 1988, when the now-defunct treaty entered into force. Russian violations prompted the U.S. to withdraw from the INF Treaty, but China’s unconstrained development of nuclear and conventional missiles played a supporting role in the U.S decision. As the United States and China sink deeper into confrontation and competition, debates over U.S. deployment of missiles in East Asia will become more pressing...	EWC
	Mongolia’s Response to Increasing U.S.-China-Russia Rivalry in Asia, August 2020. In the midst of heightened tensions generated by renewed U.S.-China-Russia rivalry in Asia, the sparsely populated, landlocked state of Mongolia demonstrates creativity and flexibility in crafting its national strategies. But this is an old story for Mongolia. Historically, Mongolia was viewed as a pawn whose fate was determined by the nature of the Sino-Russian relationship. When its Soviet Union protector dissolved at the end of the Cold War, it had to define new national priorities beyond reliance on just one state and one ideology. It embraced a multi-pillared foreign policy called the “Third Neighbor” to balance its relations with border neighbors Russia and China by reaching out to other democracies, including the U.S., Japan, European Community, and South Korea, for political and economic support...	EWC
	Cambodia’s State of Emergency Law and its Social and Political Implications, August 2020. Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Cambodia passed a law which will have huge social and political ramifications for the country, its people, and its political development. The country reported its first confirmed COVID-19 case on January 27. Two months later the number of confirmed cases rose to around 100 and then quickly reached 122, and then no new cases were confirmed for five weeks between April 22 and May 20. By the end of May, Cambodia had three active cases but zero reported deaths from COVID-19. However, cases have spiked since then. As of August 4, there were 241 confirmed cases and no deaths from COVID-19. Of those confirmed, 200 patients (66%) have recovered...	EWC
	US-Japanese Strategic Dissonance and Southeast Asian Infrastructure Finance, July 2020. U.S. policy in Asia under the Trump administration has sought to compete with China. This is particularly evident in the realm of development finance policy and energy infrastructure development in Southeast Asia. New initiatives include the BUILD Act, which reconfigured the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) as the Development Finance Corporation (DFC), the AsiaEDGE agenda, and the Blue Dot Network. Multilateral efforts such as the Japan-US Strategic Energy Partnership (JUSEP) and Japan-US Mekong Power Partnership (JUMPP) have continued to promote a discourse of ‘quality infrastructure’ in Southeast Asia in accordance with G20 and OECD principles...	EWC
	The Costs of Covid: Australia’s Economic Prospects in a Wounded World, August 2020. Australia is emerging from the pandemic sooner and at less economic cost than widely expected, but with higher unemployment and elevated debt. As the pandemic recedes, it is evident that global output and demand will recover slowly and unevenly. Major advanced economies have sharply increased government debt and their central banks have driven interest rates to rock bottom while buying big shares of additional government debt. At the same time, the US–China quarrel has become more intense, and Australia’s relationship with China has deteriorated. All these changed circumstances, much amplified and extended from their pre-pandemic appearances, limit Australia’s choices...	Lowy
	The World Trade Organization: An Optimistic Pre-Mortem in Hopes of Resurrection, August 2020. For decades, multilateral trade rules operated to keep government protectionist impulses in check. They provided a foundation of openness for international commerce, as well as a framework for liberalisation and integration. With the trade rules as a guarantor, capital and value chains spread across the globe. The creation of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995 saw these rules reinforced with a feature that is nigh unheard-of in international law: binding and non-optional dispute settlement. For the first time, an international panel of legal experts would have the final say on the legality of trade measures, whether those implementing them liked it or not. On 10 December 2019, a procedural blockade by the world’s largest economy, the United States, culminated in that 24-year experiment being put on hold, perhaps permanently...	Lowy
	Global Order in the Shadow of the Coronavirus: China, Russia, and the West, August 2020. The coronavirus pandemic has thrown a harsh spotlight on the state of global governance. Faced with the greatest emergency since the Second World War, nations have regressed into narrow self-interest. The concept of a rules-based international order has been stripped of meaning, while liberalism faces its greatest crisis in decades. Western leaders blame today’s global disorder on an increasingly assertive China and disruptive Russia. Yet the principal threat lies closer to home. Western governments have failed to live up to the values underpinning a liberal international order — a failure compounded by inept policymaking and internal divisions. The actions of Donald Trump, in particular, have undermined transatlantic unity, damaged the moral authority of the West, and weakened global governance...	Lowy
	Keeping Indonesia’s Economy Afloat Through the COVID-19 Pandemic, July 2020. Indonesia faces one of the most difficult outlooks in Asia amid the economic pandemic unleashed by COVID-19. The principal economic problem is not the old one of capital flight, but about funding the fiscal response necessary to address a massive once-in-a-lifetime shock. With little on offer from the international system, Indonesia is rightly looking to find its own way, including by having taken the unorthodox step of allowing the central bank to directly finance part of the budget deficit. To enable this, the central bank could establish a clearly defined policy of yield curve stabilisation — buying government bonds in the primary and secondary markets to stabilise bond yields close to ‘normal’ market rates, while providing a readily scalable amount of budget financing...	Lowy
	Emerging from COVID: Policy Responses to the Pandemic, June 2020. Lowy Institute experts provide policy recommendations for Australia to address issues that are critical to the nation's — and the world's — successful emergence from the pandemic. Table of Contents: Changing Australia’s conversation about Chinese economic coercion Shaping the US approach to China and the rules-based international order Maintaining Australia's security as American power recedes Strengthening the WHO by giving it legal teeth Curing the G20's irrelevance Forming a coalition of competent middle powers to lead on global health problems Managing Australia's economic recovery Assisting Indonesia through the economic pandemic Stepping up in Southeast Asia Helping the Pacific recover from COVID Reviving Australia's aid program Revaluing Australia's diplomacy	Lowy
	Biodata and Biotechnology: Opportunity and Challenges for Australia, August 2020. This new ASPI report canvasses the extraordinary recent developments in genome sequencing and genetic engineering, which will transform all biological enterprises, including healthcare, among the most important parts of the global economy. It argues that there is a once-in- generation opportunity for Australia to play a leading role in a major economic and revolution with digital deliverables, capitalising on our high quality biomedical science, agricultural R&D and healthcare systems The report identifies a number of elements for Australia to realize this opportunity. First and foremost, a national strategic and action plan is required for the collection and integration of genomic, clinical and smart sensor data for healthcare, and the development of advanced analytical software and point-of-care reporting systems, which can be exported to the world. This plan needs to be resourced by the Australian government, as a major public good infrastructure project...	ASPI
	Covid-19 Disinformation & Social Media Manipulation, August 2020. A range of actors are manipulating the information environment to exploit the COVID-19 crisis for strategic gain. ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre is tracking many of these state and non-state actors online, and will occasionally publish investigative, data-driven reporting that will focus on the use of disinformation, propaganda, extremist narratives and conspiracy theories by these actors. The bulk of ASPI’s data analysis uses our in-house Influence Tracker tool - a machine learning and data analytics capability that draws out insights from multi-language social media datasets. This new tool can ingest data in multiple languages and auto-translate, producing insights on topics, sentiment, shared content, influential accounts, metrics of impact and posting patterns...	ASPI
	Discovering Opportunities in the Pandemic? Four Economic Response Scenarios for Central Asia, July 2020. The COVID-19 crisis represents not only an unprecedented economic disruption but also an opportunity for Central Asia. A specific economic policy response may trigger either game-changing reforms that can facilitate the development of full-fledged market institutions or lead to a protracted crisis that would jeopardize almost 30-year long market economy transition progress. As it is rather unclear where the recovery pendulum will make its final swing, the current situation provides fruitful soil for various assumptions. This paper proposes and examines four scenarios of economic response strategies for the region as a whole, and for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in particular, that result in unique development trajectories...	ISDP
	The Landscape of Pricing and Algorithmic Pricing, August 2020. Algorithmic pricing is the practice of setting prices using computer programs. Understanding the foundations of pricing practices is fundamental to an assessment of the nature and potential of algorithmic pricing. Prices can be set in a number of ways and the practice of price setting has been examined from different and sometimes overlapping disciplinary perspectives – economics, marketing and operations research. The three key activities in price setting are data collection, demand analysis and optimization. Computer algorithms are used in these activities but they may not be fully integrated in practice. The organizational adoption of algorithmic pricing may assume different forms depending on the cost-benefit calculus across different components of price-setting activities...	ISEAS
	Enhancing Robustness of Enterprise-Wide Risk Assessment on Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing, August 2020. MAS conducted thematic inspections on enterprise-wide risk assessment on money laundering and terrorism financing (EWRA) in 2020. This paper highlights inspection observations and MAS’ supervisory expectations of effective EWRA frameworks and processes that financial institutions should benchmark themselves against.	MAS
	Latest APEC publications: APEC Economic Study on the Impact of Cruise Tourism: Fostering MSMEs' Growth and Creating Sustainable Communities. April 2020 Government Strategies To Encourage Ethical Business Conduct: A Resource Guide for Economies from the Business Ethics for APEC SMEs Initiative, August 2020 2019 Report on Code of Ethics Implementation by APEC Biopharmaceutical Industry Associations, August 2020 2019 Report on Code of Ethics Implementation by APEC Medical Device Industry Associations, August 2020	APEC
	Latest ADB Publications: ASEAN+3 Bond Market Guide: Inter-Bank Bond Market in the People's Republic of China, August 2020 Asian Development Bank and the United States: Fact Sheet, August 2020 Vegetable Production and Value Chains in Mongolia, August 2020 Tackling the COVID-19 Youth Employment Crisis in Asia and the Pacific, August 2020	ADB
	Latest ADB Working Paper Series: The Rise of Robots and the Fall of Routine Jobs, August 2020 Spatial Dynamics and Driving Forces of Asian Cities, August 2020	ADB
	Latest ADBI Working Paper Series: Effects of Infrastructure Projects on Government Revenue: The Case of Expressway Projects in the Northern Midland and Mountainous Area of Viet Nam, August 2020 Review of Voluntary Agreements on Energy Efficiency: Implications for ASEAN Countries, August 2020 FinTech Development in the People’s Republic of China and Its Macroeconomic Implications, August 2020 Reflections on Fiscal Coordination and Integration in Europe, August 2020 Leveraging the Participation of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Global Value Chains of the Automotive Industry: Insights from Maruti Suzuki India, July 2020 Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Nepal: Examining Constraints on Exporting, July 2020 Fintech and Financial Inclusion: Opportunities and Pitfalls, July 2020 Tourism and SME Development: Performance of Tourism SMEs in Coastal Tourist Destinations in Southern Sri Lanka, July 2020 The Nexus of Safe Asset Shortage, Credit Growth, and Financial Instability, July 2020 Public–Private Partnerships in Georgia and Impact Assessment of Infrastructure, July 2020 Drivers of Blue Economy in Asia and Pacific Island Countries: An Empirical Investigation of Tourism and Fisheries Sectors. July 2020	ADB


August, 2020

	Southeast Asia’s Small Businesses Need Regional Readiness Boost in COVID-19 New Normal, July 2020. Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, ASEAN’s micro, small and medium-sized businesses have faced significant impact and are critical to economic recovery. The ASEAN Coordinating Committee on Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (ACCMSME) and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) recently released a Policy Insight on boosting the resilience of MSMEs which is a critical and commendable effort to support small businesses in the region. The Policy Insight highlights how ASEAN can gain from sharing information and best practices in supporting MSMEs...	EWC
	Tracking COVID-19 in the Age of AI and Tech Wars, July 2020. On June 15, 2020, in the midst of the COVID-19 outbreak, 11 founding members – Australia, Canada, the European Union, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, New Zealand, Singapore, Slovenia, the United Kingdom, and the United States – came together to launch the first ever global regulatory regime on artificial intelligence (AI) called the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence (GPAI), hosted by the OECD as the Secretariat. The contactless environment propelled by the COVID-19 pandemic has clearly broken the ice on a long-awaited conversation. The launch, in the absence of China, came amid brewing tensions across the Atlantic in the digital realm...	EWC
	Planning the Future of Korea's New Southern Policy, July 2020. In November 2017, South Korea declared the New Southern Policy (NSP) centered on the 3P: People, Prosperity, and Peace. President Moon Jae-in has visited all 10 ASEAN Member States (AMS) and India in the two and a half years since his inauguration. It is the first time that the Korean President has visited all 10 AMS and India within his term. Last November, the ASEAN-ROK Special Summit and the 1st Mekong-ROK Summit were successfully completed, presenting a cooperation blueprint with ASEAN for the next 30 years...	EWC
	Korea's New Southern Policy: Diversifying Economic and Strategic Portfolios, July 2020. In recent years, Korea has found itself facing more foreign policy challenges than ever. These challenges include North Korea’s nuclear provocations, US-China geopolitical competition in Asia, and rising protectionism and uncertainty in the world economy. Upon taking office in 2017, President Moon Jae-in chose to meet those challenges with new and bold foreign policy initiatives, including the formulation of the New Southern Policy (NSP) toward the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Incorporating ASEAN into Korea’s foreign policy agenda is not new, having been attempted by preceding administrations as well...	EWC
	A Need to Rethink Peace Cooperation in Korea's New Southern Policy, July 2020. In November 2019, the leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and South Korea gathered in Busan, South Korea to commemorate the 30th anniversary of the ASEAN-South Korea relationship. The summit not only reflected on ASEAN-South Korea cooperation over the past three decades, but also highlighted achievements over the past two years of Korea’s New Southern Policy (NSP) launched in November 2017. The Korean government is now preparing the second stage of the NSP, which will guide its approach to so-called ‘new southern countries,’ ASEAN and India, in the second half of Moon Jae-in’s government...	EWC
	Korea's New Southern Policy: Progress, Problems, and Prospects, July 2020. Korea’s New Southern Policy (NSP) of the Moon Jae-in government is the country’s first diplomatic initiative focused on Southeast Asia and India. Previously, Korea’s Asia initiatives were either Northeast Asia-focused or encompassed all of Asia. The NSP aims to elevate Korea’s ties with Southeast Asia and India to the level of its ties with the United States, China, Russia, and Japan — the four countries that have traditionally been most important to Korea. Despite high levels of economic ties and people-to-people exchanges, Korea’s relations with Southeast Asia and India receive disproportionately less recognition, both within Korea’s foreign policy hierarchy and in the public’s view...	EWC
	China's Western Opportunities, June 2020. As the starting point for the novel coronavirus, China has faced unprecedented global criticism. Now, however, China is also emerging from the pandemic’s first wave to restart its economy before much of the rest of the world. In tandem, these circumstances have led Beijing to pursue an unusually aggressive diplomatic posture, counterpunching its critics and pressing its economic advantages. However, China’s current approach is unlikely to pay quick dividends in much of the developed world, especially in Western Europe or East Asia. Beijing’s approach is better placed to work in the regions on its western horizon, across the vast sweep of continental Eurasia that runs through parts of South and Central Asia, into the Middle East, and up to Europe’s doorstep...	EWC
	The Risks of China’s Ambitions in the South Pacific, July 2020. Over the last two decades China has been steadily building its influence in the South Pacific. Many perceive this expansion to be growing at a rate much faster than what could be considered a natural reflection of China’s growing economic and geopolitical clout. This has left many analysts in the West to ask, what is China’s ambition in the South Pacific, and what risks does this create? In the past three years, China’s footprint in the South Pacific has become so large, and its behavior in other parts of the world so much more assertive, that alarm bells have started to sound in capital cities of the South Pacific’s traditional partners...	Lowy
	China's Deep State: The Communist Party and the Coronavirus, July 2020. The emergence of a new, deadly virus in Wuhan in late December 2019 triggered multiple, cascading crises in China, from a collapse in the economy in early 2020 to a wave of foreign criticism of Beijing’s handling of the outbreak. Equally important, but less examined, has been how the ruling Communist Party managed the emergency — both internally and, once infections began falling in China, overseas — to corral its critics and limit any backlash at home and abroad. Democracies across the world have come under scrutiny over their capacity to enforce lockdowns, protect health systems, and manage their economies through sharp downturns after the virus spread within their borders...	Lowy
	Demanding the Future: Navigating the Pacific's Youth Bulge, July 2020. In the Pacific Islands region, high population growth has generated a corresponding increase in the number of young people: at least half the region's population is aged under 23.[1] Of all the challenges the region faces, this ‘youth bulge’ will be one of the most significant. It will affect employment, health outcomes, and sustainable urbanisation, as well as peace and security. The impact of COVID-19 will only exacerbate the predicament. The associated political and social pressures are likely to be particularly acute in the most populous Melanesian island states of Papua New Guinea (PNG), Solomon Islands, and Fiji...	Lowy
	Clean Pipes: Should ISPs Provide a More Secure Internet? July 2020. One of the largest online challenges facing Australia is to provide effective cybersecurity to the majority of internet users who don’t have the skills or resources to defend themselves. This paper explores the concept of ‘Clean Pipes’, which is the idea that internet service providers (ISPs) could provide security services to their customers to deliver a level of default security. The Australian Government looks to be implementing a version of Clean Pipes: on 30 June 2020 the Prime Minister announced a funding commitment to ‘prevent malicious cyber activity from ever reaching millions of Australians across the country by blocking known malicious websites and computer viruses at speed...	ASPI
	Taiwan-Japan (Unofficial) Relations: In a Sea of Troubles, June 2020. Taiwan (The Republic of China, ROC)* and Japan have had a long and vacillating history of engagement mostly consisting of peaceful periods of cooperation yet beset by the Japanese colonial rule of Taiwan from 1895-1945 as well as the atrocities committed during the Second World War. The Taiwan-Japan relationship is a complex one unequivocally entwined with China (The People’s Republic of China, PRC), a country which has been trying to drive a wedge between them. Overall Taiwan-Japan relations remain positive, although they are both constrained by a reluctance to provoke China, which arguably is the single most important external actor in the bilateral relationship. This paper aims to take a closer look at the history of the bilateral and trilateral relations between the states mentioned and to examine in which way China has, and will continue to, influence relations between Taiwan and Japan...	ISDP
	The Case for Multilateralism: The Korean Peninsula in a Regional Context, June 2020. The Korean Peninsula remains an enduring conflict hotspot and security challenge. Since the end of the Korean War in 1953, efforts to build a sustainable peace have been thwarted amidst a long history of tension, aggression, and broken promises; this despite periods of temporarily improved relations and détente. Conflict resolution impulses have been further hampered by the complexities of geostrategic tensions and power rivalry in the wider Northeast Asian region amidst the enduring absence of any formal regional security structure. With the exception of the ultimately failed Six-Party Talks (2003-09), the main focus of nuclear-related negotiations and agreements have been bilateral in nature, notably the 1994 Agreed Framework and the short-lived so-called 2012 Leap Day Deal between North Korea and the United States. However, breakthroughs have often failed to survive political transitions, geopolitical shifts, and the challenges of implementation...	ISDP
	Trends in Southeast Asia 2020 #11: Renewable Energy: Malaysia’s Climate Change Solution or Placebo?. Malaysia pledged to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 45 per cent by 2030 in relation to its 2005 GDP figure. The sectors listed as the main focus of this effort included: energy, industrial processes, waste, agriculture, land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF). Several initiatives under myriad governments have been launched to reduce Malaysia’s climate change impacts; among those has been the emphasis on renewable energy (RE). Malaysia’s current energy mix relies heavily on coal and natural gas. Long-entrenched subsidies on these energy sources, coupled with greatly depreciating prices make it difficult for new RE producers to enter the market and increase their market share. This is in spite of positive developments in RE infrastructure and reduced RE material costs...	ISEAS
	Trends in Southeast Asia 2020 #10: Why Did BERSATU Leave Pakatan Harapan?. The Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition won Malaysia’s 14th general election on 9 May 2018, the first time a regime change took place in the country. However, it lost its majority in late February 2020, when Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (BERSATU) left the coalition. The four parties in PH had very different ideologies, especially when it comes to issues of race and religion. But despite taking various steps to create a coalition agreement, the more fundamental differences were never reconciled during the coalition’s time in power. PH won GE-14 with a relatively low level of support from the ethnic Malays, who perceived it to be a coalition dominated by the mainly Chinese DAP. Fearmongering about how PH and the DAP were a threat to Malay privileges further weakened PH while in government...	ISEAS
	Changes in the Demographic Structure and Economic Growth, July 2020. The population of East and Southeast Asia has been ageing rapidly and will begin to decline ahead of other regions by 2040. By 2060, the elderly will comprise 40% of their total population, thus making them ‘super-aged’ societies. These regions are undergoing major demographic structure changes due to a rapid decline in birth rate and extension of life expectancy. While increased life expectancy and a lower percentage of youth population will have a positive impact on the economic growth in the short and long terms, a higher percentage of older people will have a negative impact in the long term. Additionally, growth in the labour force has a positive impact on the short-term and long-term economic growth. While ageing population will slow down economic growth in the long term, it is possible that this decline could be balanced by a higher labour force growth rate. Surviving in a super-aged society requires policies that proactively enhance economic growth...	ISEAS
	Latest APEC publications: Stock Take of APEC Economies’ Existing Measures on Withdrawal of Subsidies in Cases Where There Has Been a Determination of IUU Fishing, July 2020 Standards and Process-Based Approach to Enhancing Cybersecurity, June 2020 Research Outcomes: Summary of Research Projects 2019, July 2020 Supporting MSMEs' Digitalization Amid COVID-19, July 2020 Research on Cloud-based Sharing Platform of Multi-Energy Microgrids for APEC Economies, July 2020 Workshop on Innovative Regulatory Policy Development: APEC Economies’ Approaches on Sharing Economy, July 2020 APEC Regional Trends Analysis, Update: Deeper Contraction Calls for Decisive Action, July 2020	APEC
	Virginia Review of Asian Studies 2020	VRAS
	Latest ADB Working Paper Series: Demographic Change, Technological Advances, and Growth: A Cross-Country Analysis, July 2020 Urban Agglomeration and Firm Innovation: Evidence from Asia, July 2020	ADB
	Latest ADBI Working Paper Series: Feeling the Heat: Climate Risks and the Cost of Sovereign Borrowing, June 2020 Measuring Impacts and Financing Infrastructure in Kazakhstan, June 2020 Financial Market and Capital Flow Dynamics During the COVID-19 Pandemic, June 2020 Proposing Regulatory-Driven Blue Finance Mechanism for Blue Economy Development, June 2020 Leveraging Islamic Banking and Finance for Small Business: Exploring the Conceptual and Practical Dimensions, June 2020 Managing the Risks of Public Infrastructure Financing: Toward Sustainability, June 2020 Fintech and Financial Literacy in Viet Nam, June 2020 Impact of Global Value Chains on Performance of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Sri Lanka: Evidence from Sri Lanka, June 2020 Determinants of Export Performance of SMEs in the Kyrgyz Republic, June 2020 Marine Tourism for Sustainable Development in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, June 2020 Connecting Cambodia’s SMEs to Regional Value Chains: The “Bridging Gap” and “Missing Link”, June 2020	ADB
	Latest ADB Publications: Pacific Economic Monitor, July 2020 ADB Green Bonds Newsletter and Impact Report 2020 Reforms, Opportunities, and Challenges for State-Owned Enterprises, July 2020 The COVID-19 Impact on the Philippine Business: Key Findings from the Enterprise Survey, July 2020 Green, Social, and Sustainability Bond for Asia and the Pacific, July 2020 Quality in Urban Health Care Services in India, July 2020 COVID-19 Exposes Asian Banks’ Vulnerability to US Dollar Funding, July 2020 Mongolia’s Economic Prospects: Resource-Rich and Landlocked between Two Giants, June 2020	ADB


July, 2020

	Religion and the Secular State in Kyrgyzstan, June 2020. Since independence, religion has become ever more important as an identity marker in Kyrgyzstan, with increased practical relevance in the everyday lives of many citizens. This religious revival poses challenges for a state that, like the other Central Asian states, has remained secular after the fall of communism. For this Muslim-majority state, the challenge has been to sustain the secularism of the state that was instituted during Soviet times, while replacing the anti-religious prejudice that characterized the militantly atheist socialist system with tolerance and respect for all religions. How has this played out in the past three decades? In the early years of independence, the government took a liberal approach to religion, and the number of mosques and religious schools expanded rapidly. Foreign sources of religious influences, including ideological and financial, met few restrictions and could flow into the country from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the Indian Subcontinent...	ISDP
	Religion and the Secular State in Turkmenistan, June 2020. Since gaining its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Turkmenistan has seen an increased presence of religion in everyday life. Islam has been a continuous cornerstone of Turkmen identity for centuries and is even more so in the post-Soviet period. Turkmeniçilik (Turkmen identity) and Musulmançilik (Muslim identity) are correlated. Similar to what is found in several Central Asian countries, Turkmenistan distinguishes between traditional and non-traditional religious practices. In Turkmenistan, the state actively privileges a form of traditional Islam. That is, the leadership mobilizes the faith in its construction of a post-Soviet, national Turkmen identity. Yet, Turkmenistan is an officially secular country with constitutional provisions for the separation of state from religion. What does this mean for religious practice in that Muslim-majority country? What is the role of the state in mobilizing religious practices even as it curtails others? And why are there so few external influences on worship in Turkmenistan...	ISDP
	A Steady Hand: The EU 2019 Strategy & Policy Toward Central Asia, November 2019. The launch of a new EU Strategy for Central Asia in June 2019 marked a milestone in the gradual development of relations between the EU and the region. The Strategy’s launch coincides with considerable change in and around the region. Internally, Central Asia has experienced a renewed commitment to reform and regionalism; meanwhile, the region has seen a greater engagement by neighboring powers, most immediately through large-scale Chinese and Russian initiatives, but also in the shape of a growing interest on the part of Asian powers as well as the United States. A closer analysis of the EU’s engagement with Central Asia paradoxically indicates a sort of parallel evolution: both the EU and the Central Asian states are products of the post-cold war era, and their relations have intensified along with their own internal evolution into ever more solid entities on the international scene...	ISDP
	Hong Kong: High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecasts Current Quarter Model: 2020Q3, July 2020. Affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, Hong Kong’s economy underwent an unprecedented collapse with a drop of 8.9% in 20Q1. As the disruption from the disease slowly receded, Hong Kong’s real GDP is estimated to have a lesser drop in 20Q2 by 6.4%, compared to the same period last year. With the biggest stimulus package ever unveiled by the Hong Kong government, Hong Kong’s economy is expected to pick up for recovery from the impact of the coronavirus. Although a full output has not yet been resumed, the economy is estimated to improve in the latter half and drop by 4.3% in 20Q3. Unemployment rate is expected to improve slightly to 5.5% in 20Q3, from the estimated 5.8% in 20Q2. Hong Kong’s GDP is expected to shrink by 5.5% for the year 2020 as a whole, representing a 2.5 percentage points downward revision from our previous forecast...	HKU
	Taking Stock of United States-Vietnam Relations 45 Years After the Fall of Saigon, June 2020. In April President Donald Trump tweeted a thank you note for Vietnam’s shipment of protective suits. Since then, Vietnam has sent about half a million personal protective equipment (PPE) items to the United States. This is how far U.S.-Vietnam relations have come on the 45th anniversary of the dramatic day (April 30) known in Vietnam as Saigon Liberation, or the Fall of Saigon. “I cannot think of two countries that have worked harder, done more, and done better to try to bring themselves together and change history, to change the future, to provide a future for people that is very, very different" - said then Secretary of State John Kerry in 2013 – the year when the two became comprehensive partners. As a young soldier, Kerry had fought and later opposed the war in Vietnam...	EWC
	The New in the “New Normal” for the Post-COVID Pacific Islands, June 2020. Finding a “new normal” has become a ubiquitous catchphrase expressing the hope that the instability and uncertainties of the Covid-19 pandemic will end soon. The concept describes either a temporary transitional state on the way back to an old pre-Covid normal or the altered reality of a transformed post-Covid order. For the Pacific Community’s 21 Pacific Island countries and territories (PICTs), their post-Covid options will be determined more by the choices made elsewhere than by their own preferences. Ironically, their new normal is likely to be business as usual for the PICTs. External influences have limited the extent to which they can control own their fate for centuries...	EWC
	Regional Rivalry in the Indo-Pacific: Vietnam’s Role as the 2020 Chair of ASEAN, April 2020. With rivalry escalating between the US and China, the stability of the Indo-Pacific region is under threat. As a newly elected non-permanent member of the UN Security Council and the 2020 chair of ASEAN—the Association of Southeast Asian Nations—Vietnam will have an opportunity to help maintain peace and stability. At the same time, as one of the smaller countries, Vietnam will look for ways to use regional rivalries to promote its own national interest. Vietnam’s perception of the balance of power between the US and China determines its foreign policy toward these two countries and toward ASEAN. In response to the China-US rivalry, Hanoi supports further US engagement in the region, not only to offset Beijing’s influence but also to leverage the role of ASEAN and avoid any extreme outcomes. Keywords: Vietnam, US, China, ASEAN, Indo-Pacific region, South China Sea...	EWC
	Going Digital, Going Green: Changing Value Chains and Regimes of Accumulation in the Automotive Industry in China, December 2019. This paper analyzes the changes in production and innovation networks in the automobile industry in China that have resulted from the transition to new-energy vehicles and digital driving technologies. This transformation is seen as a fundamental break with the present “neo- Fordist” regime of accumulation in the car industry and a rise of new forms of network-based mass production, comparable to the IT industry since the 1990s. The paper traces the complex politics of this transition embedded in different modes of regulation in the Chinese automotive sector, its impact on work and regimes of production, and the perspective of a broad-ranging “Foxconnization” of car manufacturing...	EWC
	'Ike Pono—Designing the Political and Economic Systems of the Internet Generation, May 2019. Like the Open World Movement, ‘Ike Pono itself is written using the principles of collaboration, transparency, sharing and empowerment. The stories and ideas in this introductory paper are, in effect, crowdsourced from numerous intellectuals into a single document. "'Ike Pono" is the Hawaiian term for certain knowledge. It is the shorthand I am using here for this dynamic collection of work by thought leaders that explains this movement, reveals its foundations, examines its tool, and provides a vision of what the political and economic systems of the internet generation will look like...	EWC
	Thailand’s Strategic Drift: Domestic Determinants Amidst Superpower Competition, June 2020. After more than five years of military-authoritarian government following its 13th successful coup in May 2014, Thailand’s most recent elections on 24 March 2019 yielded a controversial parliament and a fractious post-election coalition government, headed by incumbent Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha. This report argues that despite the challenges of domestic political preoccupations and the Covid-19 pandemic crisis, Thailand’s strategic role in the Indo-Pacific is too important to be marginalized and that the country is an indispensable piece of the regional jigsaw puzzle in an era of global power shifts and transitions. The current Sino-US competition involves far-reaching battleground between democracy and authoritarianism, and Thailand – one of America’s oldest treaty ally with increasingly close ties with China – is strategically consequential. The report explains the complexity of Thai’s foreign policy and implications for Australia.	ASPI
	Covid-19 Disinformation & Social Media Manipulation, June 2020. A range of actors are manipulating the information environment to exploit the COVID-19 crisis for strategic gain. ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre is tracking many of these state and non-state actors online, and will occasionally publish investigative, data-driven reporting that will focus on the use of disinformation, propaganda, extremist narratives and conspiracy theories by these actors. The bulk of ASPI’s data analysis uses our in-house Influence Tracker tool - a machine learning and data analytics capability that draws out insights from multi-language social media datasets. This new tool can ingest data in multiple languages and auto-translate, producing insights on topics, sentiment, shared content, influential accounts, metrics of impact and posting patterns...	ASPI
	A Pacific Disaster Prevention Review, June 2020. Disaster risk reduction is a global policy issue. Reducing the likelihood and severity of damage and related cascading and cumulative impacts from natural hazards has become central to all nations and has triggered the evolution of international cooperation, multilateral responses and humanitarian aid efforts over many years. The nexus between natural hazards and vulnerability is central to appreciating the scale of the damage caused by large disasters and resultant sociotechnical impacts. Multilateral efforts to mitigate the impacts of weather and climate hazards have progressed over time. The Yokohama Strategy for a Safer World: Guidelines for Natural Disaster Prevention, Preparedness and Mitigation was a harbinger for the Hyogo Framework for Action, which emphasised building the resilience of communities and nations to the effects of disasters, and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction as the current flagship of unified effort...	ASPI
	From Concentrated Vulnerability to Distributed Lethality—or How to Get More Maritime Bang for the Buck With Our Offshore Patrol Vessels, June 2020. This report proposes a way for the Australian Government to acquire maritime war-fighting capability quickly and affordably while promoting Australian industry and the continuous Naval Shipbuilding Program. It would deliver substantial new maritime capability in the next few years, in contrast to the current investment program, and it would introduce a transformative force structure for the price of one or two traditional large multi-role platforms. This would address key challenges faced by the ADF by enabling it to transition more quickly to a force structure that better supports operating concepts employing distributed lethality and greater use of autonomous systems and human–machine teaming.	ASPI
	Trends in Southeast Asia 2020 #9: Advocacy in a Time of Change: Business Associations and the Pakatan Harapan Government in Malaysia, 2018–20. There are at least 80–100 business associations (such as chambers of commerce or industry-specific bodies) in Malaysia today, representing over 600,000 firms. In February–April 2020, a range of chamber leaders and officers were interviewed to record their experiences of the recent Pakatan Harapan (PH) administration, and any future lessons for business associations in post GE-14 Malaysia. Few Malaysian chambers have had experience in dealing with changes of government, creating challenges when PH took office. Most associations were able to build effective working relationships with the new administration. Compared to Barisan Nasional (BN) ministers, PH ministers emphasized greater policy rigour, more evidence-based arguments, lower tolerance for corruption, and enhanced public accountability. Criticisms of PH include an early focus by some ministers on seemingly trivial issues, an initial distrust of some parts of the public service, and an inability to have all parts of the federal government work cohesively...	ISEAS
	Trends in Southeast Asia 2020 #8: Party Mergers in Myanmar: A New Development. Party mergers are a new development in Myanmar politics. Given that such mergers often assist the consolidation of new democratic regimes, some broader system-wide effects may also occur. Myanmar’s ethnic parties consistently choose merger strategies over other forms of pre-electoral coalition. This highlights a transition from a focus on questions of authoritarianism and democracy to one on the creation of a federal system of government with a stronger cleavage between competing Bamar and ethnic nationalisms. Despite cooperation among political parties outside the electoral process, pre-electoral coalitions such as constituency-sharing or campaigning for allies have generally not been successful. Five of the six mergers among ethnic parties attempted prior to the 2015 general election failed. However, between 2017 and 2019, five mergers involving parties representing the Chin, Kachin, Kayah, Kayin or Karen, and Mon ethnicities, achieved success...	ISEAS
	When Does Trade Reduce Poverty? Revisiting the Evidence for East Asia, June 2020. East Asia’s openness to trade is often credited as one of the main drivers behind the region’s impressive gains in economic growth and poverty reduction. In this paper, we examine the literature to determine whether there is a sound theoretical and empirical basis for this presumed relationship between trade and poverty reduction. Like many other studies on this topic, we find that the linkages are not automatic; the impact of trade on poverty is highly context-specific, and many factors come into play. Complementary policies are necessary to maximise trade’s potential impact on poverty reduction. We also explore the role of Aid-for-Trade in addressing specific trade-related capacity constraints which prevent developing countries from maximising the benefits from trade.	ISEAS
	Asian Development Outlook 2020 Supplement: Lockdown, Loosening, and Asia’s Growth Prospects, June 2020. This publication provides updated economic forecasts for Asia and the Pacific, taking into consideration the impact of coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Developing Asia is now projected to grow by only 0.1% in 2020, which would be the lowest regional growth outcome since 1961. Contraction is expected in all subregions except in East Asia. Growth will rebound to 6.2% in 2021 but composite GDP next year will remain below its pre-crisis trend, so the recovery will not be V-shaped. Excluding newly industrialized economies, regional growth is forecast at 0.4% in 2020 and 6.6% in 2021. Regional inflation is expected to remain benign at 2.9% in 2020 and 2.4% in 2021.	ADB
	Asia Bond Monitor, June 2020. This edition of the Asia Bond Monitor reviews developments in emerging East Asian local currency bond markets and discusses how the financial sector can help fund the fight against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Local currency bonds outstanding in emerging East Asian markets climbed to USD16.3 trillion in the first quarter of 2020. Risks remain heavily tilted to the downside given uncertainty about the effects of COVID-19. A section on the financial sector and COVID-19 discusses the use of pandemic bonds and social bonds to mobilize resources and of fintech to support inclusive growth and pandemic resilience. A chapter on financial architecture and innovation examines whether banks or equity and debt markets are more conducive to innovation. It finds that a market-based financial system is more conducive.	ADB
	Three Decades of International Financial Crises: What Have We Learned and What Still Needs to be Done? June 2020. This paper highlights lessons from the Asian Financial Crisis, the Global Financial Crisis, and the Eurozone Debt Crisis to identify what more can be done to strengthen financial systems. Fragility that periodically erupts into a full-blown financial crisis appears to be an integral feature of market-based financial systems despite the emergence of sophisticated risk-management tools and regulatory systems. This paper compares the three major crises of the past 3 decades to distill the lessons they offer and to identify what remains to be done. Its findings are especially pertinent as policy makers tackle the financial impacts of coronavirus disease (COVID-19).	ADB
	Latest ADBI Working Paper Series: Infrastructure Development and Public–Private Partnership: Measuring Impacts of Urban Transport Infrastructure in Pakistan, June 2020 Land Readjustment in Denpasar, Indonesia: Effects on Land Management, the Spatial Distribution of Land Prices, and the Sustainable Development Goals, June 2020 What Matters for the GVC Entry and Exit of Manufacturing SMEs in the Philippines? June 2020 Policy and Regulatory Changes for a Successful Startup Revolution: Experiences from the Startup Action Plan in India, June 2020 The Startup Environment and Funding Activity in India, June 2020 Earned Income Tax Credit Experiments in the People’s Republic of China, June 2020 The Impact of Involvement in the Global Value Chain on Coffee Farmers in Indonesia: Case Study of Margamulya Coffee Producer Cooperative and Mitra Malabar Cooperative, Bandung, Indonesia, June 2020	ADB
	Latest ADB Publications: The Impact of COVID-19 on Tourism Enterprises in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic: An Initial Assessment, June 2020 Asia and the Pacific Renewable Energy Status Report, Published 2019 Environmental, Social, and Governance Investment: Opportunities and Risks for Asia, Published 2020 Post-2020 Poverty Reduction Policy Options for the People's Republic of China, Published 2020	ADB
	Latest APEC publications: COVID-19, 4IR and the Future of Work, June 2020 Promoting Consumer Protection in Digital Trade: Challenges and Opportunities, June 2020 Capacity Building to Promote Trade of Products that Replace those with Mercury to Reduce Marine Pollution, June 2020 Capacity Building on Global Marine Debris Monitoring and Modeling: Supports Protection of the Marine Environment, June 2020 Prospect Analysis for Sustainable Development of Tourism in Remote Areas of APEC Economies – Phase I, June 2020 APEC Compendium of Best Practices: Women in Agriculture and Fisheries, June 2020 3rd APEC Low Carbon Model Town Symposium, June 2020 APEC Low Carbon Model Town Project Dissemination Phase 2 - Da Lat City, Viet Nam, June 2020 APEC Low Carbon Model Town Project Dissemination Phase 2 - Davao City, Philippines, June 2020 Reducing Risks and Coping with Climate Change Along Coastal Areas: Workshop on Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change and the Role of Public-Private Collaboration, June 2020 Guideline of Products with Added Mercury, June 2020 APEC Public-Private Dialogue on Sharing Economy and Digital Technology Connectivity for Inclusive Development, June 2020	APEC


June, 2020

	MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters, June 2020. The Singapore economy contracted by 0.7% in Q1 2020 compared with the same period last year, slightly less than respondents’ forecasts of a 0.8% decline in the previous survey. In the current survey, the respondents expect the economy to contract 11.8% year-on-year in Q2 2020...	MAS
	Monetary Authority of Singapore: Macroeconomic Review, Volume XIX, Issue 1, April 2020 (Full Report, Presentation Slides for Briefing): Monetary Policy Statement Chapter 1: The International Economy Chapter 2: The Singapore Economy Chapter 3: Labour Market and Inflation Chapter 4: Macroeconomic Policy Special Feature A Asia’s Electronics Supply Chains and Global Trade Corridors Special Feature B Regulation, Technology and the Banking Sector Special Feature C Privacy, Trust in Banks, and Use of Cash	MAS
	Trends in Southeast Asia 2020 #7: From Tao Guang Yang Hui to Xin Xing: China’s Complex Foreign Policy Transformation and Southeast Asia. This article traces China’s foreign policy transformation from 2013 to the present. It also examines Deng Xiaoping’s doctrinal response to the political crises of 1989–91 and compares it to current Chinese foreign policy doctrines. From the early 1980s until the 2010s, China’s foreign policy has generally focused on keeping a low profile. Deng’s Tao Guang Yang Hui foreign policy doctrine is characterized by its “No’s”, while Xi Jinping’s Xin Xing is marked by its “New’s”. The move from Tao Guang Yang Hui to Xin Xing is a major doctrinal shift in China’s foreign policy. Since the 19th Party Congress in 2017, Xi’s “new” narratives have seemingly dominated Chinese foreign policy. However, old principles, particularly that of “non-interference” or “no hegemony”, are still alive, albeit in a different form...	ISEAS
	Defending the Maritime Rules-Based Order: Regional Responses to the South China Sea Disputes, Published 2020. The seas are an increasingly important domain for understanding the balance-of-power dynamics between a rising People’s Republic of China and the United States. Specifically, disputes in the South China Sea have intensified over the past decade. Multifaceted disputes concern overlapping claims to territory and maritime jurisdiction, strategic control over maritime domain, and differences in legal interpretations of freedom of navigation. These disputes have become a highly visible microcosm of a broader contest between a maritime order underpinned by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and challenger conceptions of order that see a bigger role for rising powers in generating new rules and alternative interpretations of existing international law. This issue examines the responses of non-claimant regional states—India, Australia, South Korea, and Japan—to the South China Sea disputes...	EWC
	Pyongyang’s Foreign Relations: Amidst a Diplomatic Standstill, Will Old Friendships Fade Away? May 2020. North Korea’s tumultuous path over the past few years from nuclear standoff to summit diplomacy put a spotlight on Pyongyang’s bilateral relations across the Indo-Pacific. The February 2017 assassination of Kim Jong Un’s exiled half-brother at the Kuala Lumpur airport dramatized the malign aspects of North Korea’s overseas presence, and presaged Southeast Asia’s role as an important front in the incipient U.S.-led maximum pressure campaign against Pyongyang. As maximum pressure transitioned to engagement with North Korea, U.S.-DPRK summits in Singapore and Vietnam raised hopes that North Korea could follow the examples of these host nations, and move forward on a more hopeful path toward economic development and reconciliation with old adversaries...	EWC
	The Strengths and the Opportunities of the New Silk Road Strategy in the Middle East, May 2020. The Middle East is situated at the heart of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The new Silk Road strategy is one of the most ambitious infrastructure projects in modern history, and has the potential to reconfigure and optimize global trade routes. Hence, China seeks to develop its relationships with Middle Eastern states for the need to secure its energy imports, to secure its exports via routes that pass through the Middle East and, in the longer term, to increase its regional influence and displace the United States in the region. BRI has become the main focus of China’s foreign policy in the Middle East. The weaknesses of China’s BRI can be turned into strengths and opportunities as long as Beijing faces them squarely and responds positively...	EWC
	Same Game, No Winners: COVID-19, U.S.-China Rivalry, and Southeast Asian Geopolitics, May 2020. The COVID-19 outbreak has spawned a plethora of commentaries forecasting the geopolitical consequences of the pandemic. For some observers the virus has caused a decisive shift in the balance of influence, with China emerging as the paramount power (especially in the Indo-Pacific) and America teetering on the brink of losing its status as global hegemon. Other pundits have offered less paradigm-shifting assessments: that COVID-19 is unlikely to upend the existing international order but may catalyze existing global trends. Four months into what is very likely to be a long and wrenching crisis it is, of course, very difficult to make predictions. However, we believe that at least in Southeast Asia, what we are witnessing thus far is less a rupture event and more an amplification of the current geopolitical dynamics...	EWC
	The United States and Japan’s Semiconductor Supply Chain Diversification Efforts Should Include Southeast Asia, May 2020. Responding to oncoming U.S.-China commercial friction in recent years, firms operating in the complex, dense semiconductor ecosystem centered on the United States and Northeast Asia began a gradual evaluation of whether and how to reshape their supply chains and investments, and still maximize profit. As a foundational industry for maintaining economic competitiveness and national security, semiconductors serve as a keystone in U.S. and Japanese technological leadership. Against the backdrop of nascent U.S.-China technology competition and the standstill from the coronavirus, adjustments to enhance resiliency and mitigate disruption through developing semiconductor supply chains and investments outside of China, including in Southeast Asia, should be supported...	EWC
	U.S., Japan, and Southeast Asia Cooperation: Building a Data Governance Blueprint, April 2020. Data is the new oil. And as the latest and most valuable resource on the planet, whoever harnesses its currency will dominate the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The United States and Japan are at the forefront of advocating for the free flow of data across the world, while other states such a China and India support localizing data. As the vanguards of the current rules-based international order that embraces cross-border data flow, it is imperative for the United States and Japan to advance a collective vision toward data governance. However, to achieve this, they must work in unison with like-minded states along with diverse stakeholders, especially in Southeast Asia—where there are also conflicting views toward data governance. Such partnerships must be based on mutual interests supported by credible initiatives to bring forth concrete and equitable outcomes...	EWC
	Assessing the Quad: Prospects and Limitations of Quadrilateral Cooperation for Advancing Australia’s Interests, May 2020. After a ten-year hiatus, the Australia-India-Japan-US Security Quadrilateral Dialogue — informally known as the Quad — was resurrected in 2017 with the aim to support a ‘free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific Region’. While there are important differences among the four countries on threat perceptions, military capability, strategic priority, capacity to bear the costs of potential retaliation, strategic culture and constitutional imperatives, these differences place limitations on Quadrilateral cooperation, but do not preclude it. All four countries have common interests in maintaining a stable balance of power in the region, freedom of the seas, an open rules-based economic order, to counter debt-trap diplomacy and to limit the use of coercion by a state to assert territorial claims. Under the leadership of President Xi Jinping, China has become more assertive and ambitious, vigorously pressing its claims in the East and South China seas and promoting its BRI. Concerned to preserve the existing liberal rules-based order, the Quad states have already responded by increasing their cooperation...	Lowy
	After COVID-19: Australia and the World Rebuild (Volume 1), 2020. This Strategy report offers policy-focused analysis of the world we will face once the pandemic has passed. At a time when all our assumptions about the shape of Australian society and the broader global order are being challenged, we need to take stock of likely future directions. The report analyses 26 key topics, countries and themes, ranging from Australia’s domestic situation through to the global balance of power, climate and technology issues. In each case we asked the authors to consider four questions. What impact did Covid-19 have on their research topic? What will recovery mean? Will there be differences in future? What policy prescriptions would you recommend for the Australian government?	ASPI
	National Security Agencies and the Cloud: An Urgent Capability Issue for Australia, May 2020. This new ASPI report, argues for the development of a national security cloud. If the community doesn’t shift to cloud infrastructure, it’ll cut itself off from the most powerful software and applications available, placing itself in a less capable position using legacy software that vendors no longer support. The report’s authors argue that if this need isn’t addressed rapidly and comprehensively, Australia will quite simply be at a major disadvantage against potential adversaries who are using this effective new technology at scale to advance their own analysis and operational performance. The report identifies four significant obstacles that stand in the way of Australia’s national security community moving to cloud infrastructure...	ASPI
	North of 26° South and the Security of Australia: Views From the Strategist Vol. 2, May 2020, is a new report by ASPI’s The North and Australia’s Security Program. The report builds on Volume 1 by presenting an all new series of articles by a range of trusted and up and coming authors exploring the continued importance of Northern Australia to national security and defence strategy. Northern Australia had become key political, military and economic terrain in a new era of major-power competition. Despite those developments, Australian policymakers have struggled to develop a cohesive northern Australia strategy. While Australia has a long-term defence capability plan, we need to continue to test our assumptions about the defence of northern Australia and the north’s significance to national security. In December 2019, Defence had finished the first draft of its internal review of Australia’s 2016 Defence White Paper...	ASPI
	Cybercrime in Southeast Asia, Published 2020. Cybercrime is a serious threat facing Australia and the world, but this criminal activity is often wrongly viewed as a near invisible online phenomenon, rather than a ‘real world’ concern. Behind every attack sits one or more people in a physical location. Those people are products of particular socio-economic conditions, which influence the types of regional and local cybercrime activity they specialise in. Cybercrime isn’t evenly distributed around the globe, but is centred around hotspots, which offer potential breeding grounds or safe harbours from where offenders can strike. This is true in Australia’s own region, where some Southeast Asian countries are emerging as bases for serious regional, and even global, cybercrime threats. We’re not proactively tackling the locations where the cybercrime threat develops and matures...	ASPI
	Terrorism Is Terrorism: The Christchurch Terror Attack From an Israeli CT Perspective, May 2020. This report by Professor Boaz Ganor examines the different phases of the Christchurch terror attack, its similarities to and differences from Islamic jihadist terror attacks, and the lessons to be learnt for preventing, thwarting and managing such attacks, based on Israeli counter-terrorism experience. Lone-wolf attacks have become a widespread phenomenon in many countries, some have ended with a limited number of casualties. The 2019 Christchurch terror attack resulted in dozens of casualties. This report rigorously examines each phase of the attack to assess where points of intervention may have been overlooked and what can be learned from this experience to evolve counter-terrorism strategy and methods...	ASPI
	Running on Empty? a Case Study of Fuel Security for Civil and Military Air Operations at Darwin Airport, May 2020. Most Australians have no idea how quickly they’ll be running on empty if fuel supplies from overseas are cut in a crisis. For decades, the nation has relied on risky, “just in time” deliveries of the fuel necessary for transport systems, industry, policing and individual motoring needs—and even the operations of the Australian Defence Force. This report describes how this situation is so fraught, and the national reserve so small, that during major military exercises and actual operations such as the search for the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, fuel stocks have reached critically low levels.	ASPI
	Economic Corridors in Southeast Asia: Success Factors, Impacts and Policy, May 2020. Economic corridors have gained popularity as a potentially important instrument in the development and transformation of low and middle income economies. But why have some countries had more success with them than others? What role does governance, institutions, finance and policy frameworks play in determining their success? How can we measure their impacts? We try and answer these questions by looking closely at, and drawing lessons from, two case studies of successful corridors in Asia – Malaysia and Thailand. A key conclusion is that economic corridors are more likely to succeed with greater domestic spillovers when the physical and policy infrastructure are conducive.	ISEAS
	Latest APEC publications: Laboratory Guide: Methodologies for Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing, May 2020 APEC Regional Trends Analysis - What Goes Around Comes Around: Pivoting to a Circular Economy; Uncertainty Tests APEC’s Resilience amid COVID-19, May 2020 Leveraging the Digital Economy to Promote an Inclusive Tourism Industry: Workshop Summary Report, May 2020 Blood Screening and Processing Centralization through Development of Center of Excellence, May 2020 Export Restrictions and Food Security in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic, May 2020 The Role of Standardization in Promoting Employment Related to the Silver Economy, May 2020 2019 PSU Annual Report, May 2020 Workshop on Best Practices Sharing to Improve Application of the APEC Non-Binding Principles for Domestic Regulation of the Services Sector, May 2020 Research on Promoting Trade in Services by SMEs and Women Entrepreneurs, May 2020 Capacity Building Workshop Series on APEC e-Instruments Utilization: Series 1 on APEC MSMEs Marketplace Utilization, May 2020 Promoting Trade in Medical Goods to Tackle COVID-19 Challenges, April 2020 Overview of the SME Sector in the APEC Region: Key Issues on Market Access and Internationalization, April 2020 Aligning Conformity Assessment Efforts for Energy Efficiency Regulations of Motors in the APEC and ASEAN Regions, April 2020 Recommendations for Implementation of Smart Sustainable City Information and Communication Technology Infrastructures in the APEC Region, April 2020 Survey for Review of Chemical Management Regulatory Systems Worldwide, April 2020 Survey for Review of Chemical Management Regulatory Systems Worldwide - Summary, April 2020 APEC Cross-Border E-Commerce Training (CBET) Workshop: Enabling APEC SMEs to Access Global Market, April 2020 APEC in the Epicentre of COVID-19, April 2020 Workshop on Technological Challenges and Opportunities to Supply Flexibility to Electric Systems, April 2020	APEC
	Latest ADBI Working Paper Series: Human Capital and Participation in Global Value Chains: Evidence from Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Indonesia, May 2020 Revisiting the Public Debt Stability Condition: Rethinking the Domar Condition, May 2020 Disintegration of the EU and the Implications for ASEAN, May 2020 Digital Transformation: Some Implications for Financial and Macroeconomic Stability, May 2020 Global Value Chain Participation and Firms’ Innovations: Evidence from Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Viet Nam, May 2020 Europe and Northeast Asia – Different Responses to Financial Crises, May 2020 Embracing Responsible Innovation and Empowering Consumers in the Digital Age, May 2020 Is International Monetary Policy Coordination Feasible for the ASEAN-5 + 3 Countries? May 2020 Swedish Economic Integration into the European Union as a Latecomer: Policy Recommendations for Asian Economic Integration, May 2020 Nonlinear Tail Dependence between the Housing and Energy Markets, May 2020 Does Fintech Contribute to Systemic Risk? Evidence from the US and Europe, May 2020 Macroeconomic Challenges and the Resilience of Emerging Market Economies in the 21st Century, May 2020 Trade, Global Value Chains, and Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Thailand: A Firm-Level Panel Analysis, May 2020 Strategic Environmental Regulation and Inbound Foreign Direct Investment in the People’s Republic of China, May 2020	ADB
	Latest ADB Publications: An Updated Assessment of the Economic Impact of COVID-19, May 2020 Reforming the Personal Income Tax System in the People's Republic of China (Observations and Suggestions), Published 2020 ADB Annual Report 2019 (Main Report. Financial Report) Enhancing Women-Focused Investments in Climateand Disaster Resilience, May 2020 Irrigation Systems for Climate Change Adaptation in Viet Nam, Published 2020	ADB


May, 2020

	West Papua: The Issue That Won't Go Away for Melanesia, May 2020. West Papuan grievances with Indonesian rule, including human rights abuses, militarisation and frustrations about self-determination, have attracted increasing international attention and concern, particularly in neighbouring countries of Melanesia. The Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) comprising Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and New Caledonia’s Kanaks, is the appropriate regional grouping to promote the issue, but struggles to do anything. A rising Indonesia is gaining in influence throughout the region, countering support for West Papuan independence aims, and MSG members have become divided over West Papua. But recent flare-ups between West Papuans and security forces, combined with steady international support for the West Papuan struggle, and the emergence of the United Liberation Movement for West Papua (ULMWP), foreshadowed a looming regional diplomatic wrestle...	Lowy
	Eyes Wide Open: Managing the Australia-China Antarctic Relationship, April 2020. Given recent broader tensions in the China–Australia relationship, China’s global ambitions, lack of progress on key Antarctic policy initiatives and the potential for significant geopolitical consequences for the future of Antarctica and for Australia’s strategic interests, it’s important that Australian policymakers reconsider our long-term Antarctic policy settings. The report found no clear evidence that China is violating the Antarctic Treaty. But it argues we should apply a more sharply focused assessment of the costs and benefits of cooperation, given China’s more assertive international posture and increasing interests in Antarctica...	ASPI
	Returning to Work During the Pandemic: Testing, Surveillance, Apps and Data as Our Near Term Future, April 2020. National Cabinet is meeting to begin the pathway to get Australia back to work and school. That's while we are still in the midst of 'flattening the curve' and in a world without a vaccine or even effective therapeutic treatment to reduce death rates from the virus. So, how might Australia return to work without getting back on the elevator of exponentially growing infection and deaths? This Strategic Insight sketches out that path, with the answers involving mass testing, and companies funded and supported to do rapid testing, data collection and analysis. It will rely on smartphone apps for data collection to enable outbreak suppression and contact tracing. Critically, national cabinet must communicate how this new approach will work alongside the existing social distancing restrictions, which will need to remain in place for months to come...	ASPI
	Automation Challenges in Southeast Asia, April 2020. Trends around much of the world toward greater automation are accelerating, with significant implications for workers. In 2018, McKinsey & Co. released a document claiming that, by 2030, up to 375 million people worldwide may forfeit their current jobs due to automation and technological disruption. ASEAN is especially likely to be affected. According to the International Labor Organization (ILO), the impact of technological disruption on ASEAN will be profound. Automation will result in the obsolescence of jobs in industries ranging from textiles to automotive manufacturing. Southeast Asia’s labor force and economic growth must address this challenge head on...	EWC
	The Strategic Imperatives of Modi’s Indo-Pacific Ocean Initiative, April 2020. The concepts of ‘strategic autonomy’ and ‘inclusiveness’ have been core to India’s Indo-Pacific policies. Without taking a defined position on the contested power politics in the Indo-Pacific, India has largely maintained cordial relations with most countries and stakeholders in the region. As a corollary to this, the rubric of Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) advances India’s maritime diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific, reflecting India’s desire to manage maritime security and governance in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s proposition to establish the Indo-Pacific Ocean Initiative (IPOI) at the 14th East Asia Summit (EAS) on November 4, 2019, primarily draws on this assertion...	EWC
	Trends in Southeast Asia 2020 #6: The Free and Open Indo-Pacific Beyond 2020: Similarities and Differences between the Trump Administration and a Democrat White House. American Indo-Pacific policy will be driven by its China policy, regardless of whether there is a second-term Donald Trump administration or a first-term Joe Biden administration. The Republicans will continue to frame the major challenge as “balancing” against Chinese power and “countering” the worst aspects of Beijing’s policies. Establishment or moderate Democrats under Biden will choose the softer language of seeking a favourable “competitive coexistence” in the military, economic, political and global governance realms, and the reassertion of American leadership and moral standing...	ISEAS
	Trends in Southeast Asia 2020 #5: Malaysia’s Student Loan Company: Tackling the PTPTN Time Bomb. The Malaysian National Higher Education Fund Corporation (PTPTN) was set up in 1997. Since then, it has accumulated a massive debt amounting to RM40 billion in principal plus RM13 billion in interest. All these are guaranteed by the Malaysian government. It is now the biggest provider of student loans in the country and continues to play a very important role in catalysing socio-economic mobility, especially among the ethnic Malays which is the majority community in the country. However, the business model employed by PTPTN is irrational and unsustainable. It borrows from the financial market at, on average, 4 to 5 per cent, and lends to students at 1 per cent. No serious effort has been made to revamp this model, and all public discussions around it have been driven by political populism...	ISEAS
	Asian Development Outlook 2020 Full Report and Highlights. Growth in the region is expected to slow sharply to 2.2% in 2020 under the effects of the current health emergency and then rebound to 6.2% in 2021. Excluding Asia’s high-income newly industrialized economies, growth will drop from 5.7% to 2.4% this year before recovering to 6.7% next year. Headline inflation accelerated in 2019 as food prices edged up but remained low by historical standards. Inflation will climb further to 3.2% in 2020, but declining food prices in the latter half of the year will set the stage for easing inflation in 2021. Downside risks to the outlook are severe, most notably from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In these difficult times, when challenges to growth abound, innovation is critical to inclusive and environmentally sustainable growth. While some economies in developing Asia are near or at the global innovation frontier, many others lag behind.	ADB
	Latest ADBI Working Paper Series: The Real-Time Impact on Real Economy—A Multivariate BVAR Analysis of Digital Payment Systems and Economic Growth in India, April 2020 The Effects of Privatization and Corporate Governance of SOEs in Transition Economy: The Case of Kazakhstan, April 2020 Creation and Evolution of European Economic and Monetary Union: Lessons for Asian Economic Integration, April 2020 Peer Effect, Political Competition, and Eco-Efficiency: Evidence from City-Level Data in the People’s Republic of China, April 2020 Assessing Macroeconomic Uncertainties for an Emerging Economy, April 2020 Evolution of ASEAN Financial Integration in the Comparative Perspective, April 2020 Regulatory Frameworks for Reforms of State-Owned Enterprises in Thailand and Malaysia, April 2020 Reflections on the Development of Regional Financing Arrangements: Experience from Europe, April 2020 Role of Regional Cooperation and Integration in Improving Energy Insecurity in South Asia, April 2020 Firm Size and Participation in the International Economy: Evidence from Bangladesh, April 2020 Driving Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Participation in Global Value Chains: Evidence from India, April 2020 Foreign-Currency Exposures and the Financial Channel of Exchange Rates: Eroding Monetary Policy Autonomy in the Asia and Pacific Region? April 2020 The Determinants of Participation in Global Value Chains: A Cross-Country, Firm-Level Analysis, April 2020 Financing of Tech Startups in Selected Asian Countries, April 2020 Belts, Roads, and Regions: The Dynamics of Chinese and Japanese Infrastructure Connectivity Initiatives and Europe’s Responses, April 2020 Loans from My Neighbors: East Asian Commercial Banks, Banking Integration, and Bank Default Risk, April 2020 The Quiet Revolution in Women’s Human Capital and the Gender Earnings Gap in the People’s Republic of China, April 2020 Credit Risk Database for SME Financial Inclusion, April 2020 Time to Look East: Lessons from Revisiting Asian Economic Integration, April 2020 Economic Integration in Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Member Countries: Financing Economic Corridors and Sovereign Bonds Market, April 2020 Comparative Study on the Legal Framework on General Differentiated Integration Mechanisms in the European Union, APEC, and ASEAN, April 2020 Trade Impact of Reducing Time and Costs at Borders in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Region, April 2020 Exploring Community-Based Financing Schemes to Finance Social Protection, March 2020 Household Economic Prudence in Thailand, March 2020 Deintegration in the European Union and Lessons for Asia, March 2020	ADB
	Latest ADB Working Paper Series: Limited Impact of Business Development Programs on Profitability in the Presence of Ambiguity Aversion, April 2020	ADB
	Latest ADB Publications: Basic Statistics 2020 Advancing the K-12 Reform from the Ground: A Case Study in the Philippines, April 2020 Enhancing Productivity for Poverty Reduction in India, April 2020 Futures Thinking in Asia and the Pacific: Why Foresight Matters for Policy Makers, April 2020 ADB’s Comprehensive Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Policy Paper, April 2020 Global Shortage of Personal Protective Equipment amid COVID-19: Supply Chains, Bottlenecks, and Policy Implications, April 2020 Managine Infectious Medical Waste during the COVID-19 Pandemic, Published 2020 Office of Anticorruption and Integrity 2019 Annual Report Office of Anticorruption and Integrity 2019 Annual Report Highlights Macroeconomic Update: Nepal, April 2020 Bioengineering for Green Infrastructure, Published 2020 Building the Future of Quality Infrastructure, Published 2020 Crowdfunding with Music Securities: A New Approach to Impact Investing, March 2020	ADB
	Latest APEC publications: Workshop on Distributed Energy Resources Regulation and Rate Design, April 2020 Study on Optimal Use of Small-scale Shallow-draft LNG Carriers and FSRUs in the APEC Region, April 2020 Role of Management Capability in SMEs, April 2020 Intellectual Property Commercialization for SMEs, April 2020 Plant Back Better Toolkit, April 2020	APEC


April, 2020

	Hong Kong: High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecasts Current Quarter Model: 2020Q2, April 2020. Ravaged by the COVID-19 outbreak, Hong Kong’s domestic and external demand is expected to collapse in 20Q1. Hong Kong’s real GDP is estimated to plunge by 8.3% in 20Q1 when compared with the same period in 2019. The instant spread of the pandemic disease likely drags developed economies into recession. Clouded by the coronavirus, trade tension and oil-price war, the output decline is expected to continue and drop by 5.2% in 20Q2, when compared with the same period in 2019. Unemployment rate is expected to worsen to 4.5% in 20Q2. Hong Kong will confront with difficult challenges amid the adverse economic condition in 2020. Hong Kong’s GDP is expected to shrink by 3% for the year 2020 as a whole, representing a 3.4 percentage points downward revision from our previous forecast, and is the largest decline since the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis...	HKU
	The Path of Least Resilience: Autocratic Rule and External Powers in the Middle East, March 2020. Almost a decade since the Arab uprisings promised democratic revival in the Middle East, most countries in the region remain firmly in the grip of autocrats. External powers, from Russia and China to the United States and Europe, have either helped the region’s dictators stay in power, or have shaped their policies toward the region in the expectation that such regimes will persist. In effect external powers have made a bet on authoritarian resilience, not least because it has seemed an easier way to secure their respective interests. But a closer look at two countries, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, where authoritarianism is often said to have been revived, underlines the way regimes are struggling to find a new basis for popular legitimacy. As a result, both regimes are becoming even more reliant than usual on repression, bringing with it risks of new explosions of civil unrest. External powers may have hoped they were making a safe wager on continued authoritarian rule in the Middle East. But the Saudi and Egyptian cases suggest that they have chosen instead the path of least resilience.	Lowy
	Uyghurs for Sale, March 2020. The Chinese government has facilitated the mass transfer of Uyghur and other ethnic minority citizens from the far west region of Xinjiang to factories across the country. Under conditions that strongly suggest forced labour, Uyghurs are working in factories that are in the supply chains of at least 83 well-known global brands in the technology, clothing and automotive sectors, including Apple, BMW, Gap, Huawei, Nike, Samsung, Sony and Volkswagen. This report estimates that more than 80,000 Uyghurs were transferred out of Xinjiang to work in factories across China between 2017 and 2019, and some of them were sent directly from detention camps. The estimated figure is conservative and the actual figure is likely to be far higher. In factories far away from home, they typically live in segregated dormitories, undergo organised Mandarin and ideological training outside working hours, are subject to constant surveillance, and are forbidden from participating in religious observances. Numerous sources, including government documents, show that transferred workers are assign minders and have limited freedom of movement.	ASPI
	Counterterrorism Yearbook 2020. his year’s Counterterrorism Yearbook draws upon 19 contributing authors, each a renowned thought leader in their field, to promote practical counterterrorism solutions by reviewing a global range of terrorism developments and counterterrorism responses. ASIO’s Director General, Mike Burgess commends the publication for its ‘valuable contribution to the public discourse on counterterrorism’. While maintaining its geographic focus, the Yearbook now includes thematic chapters on mental health, strategic policing, the media, the terror–crime nexus and terrorist innovation. These new thematic chapters have been included to encourage governments to consider more proactive CT agendas that move beyond the current focus on disrupting plots and discouraging people from joining and supporting terrorist groups. The focus here has been on promoting new thinking on how to deal with emergent areas of concern, such as comorbidity of mental health, use of gaming platforms, and artificial intelligence.	ASPI
	A United States-Kiribati Compact of Free Association Would Yield Mutual Dividends, March 2020. A Compact of Free Association (COFA) with the Republic of Kiribati would strengthen the U.S. strategic posture in the Pacific, win the moral high ground in the global climate change debate, and strengthen Washington's diplomatic footing in Pacific regional architecture, while giving Kiribati strong defense guarantees, generous immigration terms, and modest development assistance. Kiribati is a Pacific Micronesian country, as are Nauru and the Freely Associated States (FAS), consisting of Palau, Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands...	EWC
	New Zealand Picks up on the Indo-Pacific, March 2020. The United States should, I have argued, pursue the “Pacific Principle.” The main features of this principle are power, purpose, and commitment to access and engagement across the region in all dimensions from security to public diplomacy. These actions matter more than what the United States calls the region running from our west coast to the eastern coast of Africa. The Pacific Island countries (PICs) and region (PIR) are crucial for many reasons; and not only because of China’s rising activities there. Four Indo-Pacific contests, over the balance of power, order, relations, and narratives, are having particular impacts on the PIR...	EWC
	Trends in Southeast Asia 2020 #4: Deepening the Understanding of Social Media’s Impact in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asia’s Internet users are far more diverse than usually reported. They range from the urban youth with laptops and high-speed Wi-Fi, to the older generation semi-rural and rural users with affordable mobile phones for Facebook and WhatsApp.Southeast Asians generally trust social media platforms more than in Western societies. This trust in social media reflects a lack of trust in local mainstream media and official sources of information. What campaign information (and disinformation) is being spread and which ones are most successful are essential for understanding how voters in Southeast Asia use and trust social media...	ISEAS
	Industry 4.0 Policies in Thailand, February 2020. The Thai government has implemented a number of policies to harness the potential of the fourth industrial revolution (Industry 4.0). These policies can be categorized into three broad categories, namely, digital infrastructure, skill formation, and target industries. As is often observed for other policies in Thailand, the policy coverage for Industry 4.0 is too broad. Many aspects are included without a clear prioritisation. There is no effective mechanism to assess these policies and their implementation largely depends on government agencies’ preferences. The existing assessment mechanism induces these agencies to undertake easy-to-achieve activities such as training...	ISEAS
	Latest APEC publications: Comprehensive Review of Potentially Anti-Competitive Laws and Regulations, March 2020 APEC Guidelines and Best Practices for the Adoption of Global Data Standards, March 2020 APEC Workshop on Promoting Renewable Energy Integration and Energy Efficiency, March 2020 Supporting Women in Starting Online Business Program, March 2020 Update of 2009 APEC Report on Economic Costs of Marine Debris to APEC Economies, March 2020 APEC Energy Handbook 2017, March 2020 APEC Energy Statistics 2017, March 2020 Path to Inclusive Energy Transition in the APEC Region: How to Enhance Women’s Empowerment in the Energy Field, March 2020 Rural Development through the Lens of Indigenous Communities and their Agribusinesses, March 2020 Guidebook on SME Embracing Digital Transformation, March 2020 Local Innovation Ecosystem Best Practices, March 2020 Follow-Up Peer Review on Energy Efficiency in Peru, March 2020 Lessons Learned from Promotion Mechanisms Focused on Boosting Energy Solutions in Remote Areas, March 2020 APEC Workshop on Improving Electric Grid Resilience to Natural Disasters, March 2020 Trends and Developments in Provisions and Outcomes of RTA/FTAs Implemented in 2018 by APEC Economies, March 2020 Summary Report of the Regional Workshop on Lung Cancer Prevention and Control, March 2020 Regulations, Policies and Initiatives on E-Commerce and Digital Economy for APEC MSMEs' Participation in the Region, March 2020	APEC
	The Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak on Developing Asia, March 2020. A new coronavirus disease, now known as COVID-19, was first identified in Wuhan, People’s Republic of China (PRC), in early January 2020. From the information known at this point, several facts are pertinent. First, it belongs to the same family of coronaviruses that caused the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003 and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak in 2012. Second, the mortality rate (number of deaths relative to number of cases), which is as yet imprecisely estimated, is probably in the range of 1%–3.4%—significantly lower than 10% for SARS and 34% for MERS, but substantially higher than the mortality rate for seasonal flu, which is less than 0.1%...	ADB
	Asia Bond Monitor, March 2020. This issue of the Asia Bond Monitor reveals that the COVID-19 pandemic and deepening global economic uncertainty are weighing heavily on local currency bond markets of emerging East Asian economies. Apart from emerging East Asia, government bond yields have also declined in major advanced economies and select European markets between 31 December 2019 and 29 February 2020. Local currency bonds outstanding in emerging East Asia totaled $16 trillion at the end of December 2019, up 2.4% from September 2019 and 12.5% higher than December 2018. Bond issuance in the region totaled $1.44 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2019, a 9.5% decline from September last year...	ADB
	Innovate Indonesia: Unlocking Growth through Technological Transformation, March 2020. Indonesia is the world’s fourth most populous nation and its tenth largest economy. It is by far the largest country by both measures in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It has sustained average economic growth rates above 5% since 2000 and made significant strides in reducing poverty. Yet economic analyses point to a number of factors constraining Indonesia’s growth potential, notably tepid productivity growth and slowing expansion in the labor force and manufacturing industries. Technology has a key role to play in overcoming these constraints and boosting future growth. Internationally, advanced and developing economies alike see emerging technologies offering sustainable growth...	ADB
	Work and Social Protection in Asia and the Pacific during the Fourth Industrial Revolution, March 2020. The universal right to social protection remains elusive in Asia and the Pacific, as in the rest of the world. In developing Asia and the Pacific, most new entrants to the labor market do so informally; beyond the informal economy, the nature of work in the region is often in temporary contracts. Regular, full-time employment in the formal economy encompasses a minority of labor market participants, so the majority of those working are usually without social protection, which has been traditionally associated with labor market participation...	ADB
	Handbook on High-Speed Rail and Quality of Life, Published 2020. Since the origin of the railways in the United Kingdom in the early 19th century, “high-speed” has been a time-relative concept. The 56-kilometer (km) Liverpool–Manchester Railway was the world’s first commercial passenger railway developed for intercity transport. The 50 km per hour (km/h) speed record achieved by the steam-powered “Rocket” locomotive in 1830 represented a truly high speed for its time. Soon, with the changes in technology, passenger rail travel would see tremendous upgrades in speed. The German diesel trains achieved 215 km/h in 1939 and the French electric-powered Train à Grande Vitesse (TGV) holds the current record on steel rails at 574 km/h (set in 2007)...	ADB
	Asian Development Review, Vol. 37, No. 1, 2020 (Full Report): This edition discusses current economic, environmental, and development issues in Asia such as poverty, migration, and financial spillovers. It features research studies in Pakistan, the People's Republic of China, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Studies presented in this edition also provide data and information about trends in seasonal poverty and seasonal migration across Asia as well as analyses of financial spillovers between emerging Asia and advanced economies across regions.safe working environment in Viet Nam's manufacturing firms. Seasonal Poverty and Seasonal Migration in Asia Wage Differential between Rural Migrant and Urban Workers in the People’s Republic of China Household Debt and Delinquency over the Life Cycle Financial Spillovers in Asian Emerging Economies Green Trade Pattern and the Transboundary Transmission of Greenhouse Gas Emissions The Effects of Formalization on Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Tax Payments: Panel Evidence from Viet Nam Measuring the Ecological Efficiency of Thermal Power Plants: Evidence from Pakistan Understanding Households' Choice of Cooking Fuels: Evidence from Urban Households in Pakistan	ADB
	Latest ADB Working Paper Series: Determinants of Peer-to-Peer Lending Expansion: The Roles of Financial Development and Financial Literacy, March 2020 Bank Efficiency and the Bond Markets, March 2020 Taking Education to the Next Level: What Can Be Learned from Benchmarking Education across Economies? March 2020	ADB
	Latest ADBI Working Paper Series: The European Union’s Role in Regional, Social, and Economic Integration, March 2020 An Empirical Analysis of Factors Responsible for the Use of Capital Market Instruments in Infrastructure Project Finance, March 2020 FinTech, Financial Literacy, and Consumer Saving and Borrowing: The Case of Thailand, March 2020 The Role of Central Banks in Scaling Up Sustainable Finance: What Do Monetary Authorities in Asia and the Pacific Think? March 2020 Building Financial Resilience through Financial and Digital Literacy in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, March 2020 Financial Literacy and Poverty Reduction: The Case of Indonesia, March 2020 Does Renewable Energy Increase Farmers’ Well-being? Evidence from Solar Irrigation Interventions in Bangladesh, March 2020 Financial Literacy and Fintech Adoption in Japan, March 2020 Persistent Current Account Imbalances: Are they Good or Bad for Regional and Global Growth? March 2020 Do Women Benefit from FDI? FDI and Labor Market Outcomes in Cambodia, March 2020 Economic Burden of Neurological Disorders in an Aging Society (Japan): A Panel Data Analysis, March 2020 Returns to Education of Manufacturing Workers: Evidence from the People’s Republic of China Employer–Employee Survey, March 2020 Regional Institutions in Europe and Southeast Asia: Lessons for Economic Integration in South Asia, March 2020 Time-Varying Interactions between Geopolitical Risks and Renewable Energy Consumption, March 2020 Measuring the Effect of Environmental, Social, and Governance on Sovereign Funding Costs, March 2020 Digital Economy for ASEAN Economic Integration, March 2020 The Energy–Pollution–Health Nexus: A Panel Data Analysis of Low- and Middle-Income Asian Nations, March 2020 Energy Insecurity and Renewable Energy Policy: Comparison between the People’s Republic of China and Japan, March 2020 Analyzing the Factors Influencing the Demand and Supply of Solar Modules in Japan, March 2020 Sustainable Finance in Japan, February 2020 Revisiting Development of the Green Bond Market: Evidence of the AHP Approach, March 2020	ADB
	Journal of Bhutan Studies, Volume 40, Summer 2019	Bhutan


March, 2020

	Emerging Giant Shaking up the EU? Impacts, Challenges and Implications of China’s Investment Frenzy in Europe, March 2020. Chinese Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has experienced an exponential surge globally over the past decade, challenging the traditional norms of international investment. This phenomenon is the result of a long series of policies formulated by the Chinese government, that have ushered in key reforms driving China’s economic liberalization and its integration into the global economy. While initial reforms launched under the aegis of Deng Xiaoping in the 1970’s, were conceptualized as a tool to attract foreign capital and know-how, the onset of the millennium marked a new phase in China’s internationalization strategy, with Chinese multinationals staggeringly expanding their presence abroad and conquering global markets...	ISDP
	Cyber Risk Surveillance: A Case Study of Singapore, February 2020. Cyber risk is an emerging source of systemic risk in the financial sector, and possibly a macro-critical risk too. It is therefore important to integrate it into financial sector surveillance. This paper offers a range of analytical approaches to assess and monitor cyber risk to the financial sector, including various approaches to stress testing. The paper illustrates these techniques by applying them to Singapore. As an advanced economy with a complex financial system and rapid adoption of fintech, Singapore serves as a good case study. We place our results in the context of recent cybersecurity developments in the public and private sectors, which can be a reference for surveillance work.	MAS
	Private Banking Sales and Advisory Practices, February 2020. Singapore has established itself as one of the leading global private banking and wealth management centres. High-net-worth individuals and accredited investors choose Singapore because of its sound financial regulation and strong rule of law, amongst other factors. MAS expects financial institutions operating in the private banking industry in Singapore (referred to as “PBs” henceforth) to uphold high standards of market conduct and transparency in their dealings with clients, so as to safeguard clients’ interests and Singapore’s reputation as a leading wealth management hub...	MAS
	Trends in Southeast Asia 2020 #3: Terrorism in Indonesia after “Islamic State". The emergence of the Islamic State (IS) movement in Indonesia in 2014 re-energized violent extremism in Indonesia. As a result of effective counterterrorism policing, however, IS networks have been decimated and the structure of jihadism in Indonesia has shifted from organizations to autonomous networks and cells, increasingly organized via the Internet. Although support for violent extremism in Indonesia remains marginal, cells of IS followers maintain a low-level capacity to conduct lethal attacks against civilian and government targets. Most IS operations in Indonesia are sporadic and low-level attacks against the Indonesian police. Religious minorities have also been high-profile targets, as in the Surabaya church suicide bombings of 13 May 2018. There are some indications, however, of militants’ renewed interest in attacking foreign targets, such as tourists on the resort island of Bali...	ISEAS
	Trends in Southeast Asia 2020 #2: The Hand that Rocks the Cradle: Nurturing Exclusivist Interpretations of Islam in the Malaysian Home. As an increasingly conservative wave of Islam engulfs the globe, literalist Salafi interpretations of the faith have become prevalent in Malaysia. While there are several Islamic schools of thought in the country, including those deemed “deviant”, the loudest voices are always the more extreme. Over the past year, there has been increasing recognition of women’s roles as recruiters, financiers and influencers for radical Islamic groups. More women have been arrested for their support for and involvement in the Islamic State (IS), but much of the focus has been on their desire to marry a jihadi soldier or channel funds to the cause. In Malaysia, these women (including returnees from IS) are seen to be followers, not decision-makers or active agents in extremist action. While Malay-Muslim women were both economically and socially active prior to colonization, patriarchal norms are now commonplace because of Islamic and Western conventions, as well as increasing conservatism in society...	ISEAS
	Trends in Southeast Asia 2020 #1: The Vietnam-US Security Partnership and the Rules-based International Order in the Age of Trump. Vietnam-US relations have kept strengthening since bilateral normalization in 1995, including in the defence and strategic domains. This has turned the two countries into increasingly important security partners for each other. The shared perception of the China threat, especially in the South China Sea, provided the strongest momentum towards bilateral strategic rapprochement in recent years despite the strategic uncertainties generated by the Trump administration. Such strategic dynamics also shaped Vietnam’s supportive view of the US-led regional and global orders. In the short to medium term, challenges for bilateral relations include the further improvement of mutual trust and the building up of Vietnam’s capacity to participate in more substantive defence cooperation initiatives with the United States. In the long run, how to balance its strengthening ties with Washington and the troubling yet important relationship with Beijing remains a challenge for Hanoi...	ISEAS
	Taiwan Flashpoint: What Australia Can Do to Stop the Coming Taiwan Crisis, February 2020. A major strategic crisis is brewing across the Taiwan Strait, one which threatens to be significantly more serious than earlier crises of the 1950s and mid-1990s. Current tensions between China and Taiwan, and the fear that a major conflict could erupt, are generally attributed to Beijing’s growing assertiveness. However, these tensions are ultimately the product of changes in the dynamics of the triangular relationship between China, Taiwan and the United States and, most importantly, the balance of military power underpinning those ties. These tensions have sparked renewed debate in Australia over whether conflict would trigger Australia’s obligations under the ANZUS alliance...	Lowy
	Taiwan’s 2020 Election and Its Implications for the New Southbound Policy, February 2020. The elections in January 2020 marked a new era for Taiwan, clearly demonstrating citizens’ resistance to China. The results showed that incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen, leader of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), was re-elected with a landslide victory of 8.17 million votes (57.1%) which is higher than the previous record high of 7.65 million votes obtained by the Kuomintang (KMT) President Ma Ying Jeou in 2008. Although KMT presidential candidate Han Kuo-Yu failed to win the election, he also obtained 5.5 million votes (38.6%), surpassing the 3.81 million votes obtained by the KMT’s Zhu Lilun in 2016...	EWC
	America’s “Pacific Principle” in an Indivisible Pacific Islands Region, February 2020. The United States should, I have argued, pursue the “Pacific Principle.” The main features of this principle are power, purpose, and commitment to access and engagement across the region in all dimensions from security to public diplomacy. These actions matter more than what the United States calls the region running from our west coast to the eastern coast of Africa. The Pacific Island countries (PICs) and region (PIR) are crucial for many reasons; and not only because of China’s rising activities there. Four Indo-Pacific contests, over the balance of power, order, relations, and narratives, are having particular impacts on the PIR. An emerging feature is the increasing indivisibility of the region; that is, the declining significance of the colonial-era, sub-regional delineations of Micronesia, Melanesia, and Polynesia. These trends provide a basis for framing America’s policy approach to the PIR...	EWC
	Ict for Development in the Pacific Islands, February 2020. Information and communication technologies (ICTs) as an invisible driver of socio-economic change have long captured the imagination of politicians, policymakers and aid professionals alike. Since the first fibre-optic submarine cable connected Fiji 20 years ago, many reports and studies have been written about the potential that the introduction of ICTs in the South Pacific would bring for reaching targets of poverty reduction and economic growth. The internet, mobile devices and e-commerce have already penetrated the Pacific, configured to the political, economic and sociocultural context of the various island nations. Fiji was the first island to get linked up to the global network of submarine communications cables in 2000. In 2020, all major islands in the region are connected through one or more domestic and international fibre-optic cables. The region is connected...	ASPI
	Australia's Implementation of Women, Peace and Security: Promoting Regional Security, February 2020. Australia’s implementation of women, peace and security examines the benefits of Australia strengthening its implementation of the women, peace and security agenda to bolster its regional stability and national security efforts. Since its formal establishment by the UN Security Council in October 2000, the women, peace and security agenda has become the central framework through which to advocate for women’s participation across all peace and security decision-making processes, to promote the rights of women and girls in conflict and crisis settings, and for the integration of gender perspectives into conflict prevention, resolution and post-conflict rebuilding efforts and throughout disaster and crisis responses. The agenda, when implemented holistically, can also complement states’ national security efforts and strategies aimed at promoting regional stability...	ASPI
	Latest ADB Working Paper Series: Over Land and Over Sea: Domestic Trade Frictions in the Philippines, February 2020 Exchange Rates and Insulation in Emerging Markets, February 2020 Conditions for Effective Macroprudential Policy Interventions, February 2020 Attraction or Repulsion? Testing Coagglomeration of Innovation between Firm and University, February 20	ADB
	Latest ADBI Working Paper Series: The Fate of Job Creation in the Philippines Amid the Automation Revolution: A Firm-Level Analysis, February 2020 Networking with Peers: Evidence from a P2P Lending Platform, February 2020 Blockchain and Tokenized Securities: The Potential for Green Finance, February 2020 Analyzing the Falling Solar and Wind Tariffs: Evidence from India, Februay 2020 Greenfield Investments as a Source of Sustainable Green Finance? On the Relationships between Greenfield Investments, Environmental Performance, and Asian Economic Growth, February 2020 Effectiveness of Foreign Development Assistance in Mitigating Natural Disasters’ Impact: Case Study of Pacific Island Countries, February 2020 The Impact of the Green Energy Infrastructure on Firm Productivity: Evidence from the Three Gorges Project in the People’s Republic of China, February 2020 Millennial Mobile Payment Users: A Look into Their Personal Finances and Financial Behavior, January 2020 Green Bonds for Financing Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency in Southeast Asia: A Review of Policies, January 2020 Regulating Green Bonds in the People’s Republic of China: Definitional Divergence and Implications for Policy Making, January 2020 State-Owned Enterprise Reform in Viet Nam: Progress and Challenges, January 2020 Enhancing the Transparency and Accountability of State-Owned Enterprises, January 2020	ADB
	Latest ADB Publications: Not Business as Usual: Mega-Trends and the Need for New City Building Approaches in the People’s Republic of China, February 2020 Streamlining Pension Contributions in the People's Republic of China, Published 2020 A Comparative Analysis of Tax Administration in Asia and the Pacific: 2020 Edition Improving Tax Compliance: Establishing a Risk Management Framework, Published 2020 ASEAN+3 Multi-Currency Bond Issuance Framework: Implementation Guidelines for the Philippines, February 2020 Skills Gaps in Two Manufacturing Subsectors in Sri Lanka: Food and Beverages, and Electronics and Electricals, January 2020 Potential Exports and Nontariff Barriers to Trade: India National Study, January 2020 Innovative Approaches for the Management of Labor Migration in Asia, Published 2020	ADB
	Latest APEC publications: Outcomes and Outlook 2019/2020 Guidebook on Best Practices in Monitoring and Supervising Effective Corporate Compliance Programs, February 2020 Applying Digital Technology and Standards to Respond to the Impacts of Climate Change on Infrastructure, February 2020 APEC Cross-Border Privacy Rules System Fostering Accountability Agent Participation for Participants, Developing Economies, and MSMEs Benefit Workshop, February 2020 APEC Financing Opportunities Fair for Women-led MSMEs, February 2020 Protecting Minority Investors in Privately Held Companies in APEC, January 2020 Study on APEC's Non-binding Principles for Domestic Regulation of the Services Sector, January 2020 Do Public Capital Investments Have an Impact on Economic Growth? January 2020 Knowledge Transfer Best Practices between APEC Economies, January 2020 Managing Port Data via a Single APEC Port Community Platform, January 2020 Circular Economy: Don’t Let Waste Go to Waste, January 2020	APEC


February, 2020

	Australia's Next Cybersecurity Strategy: Views From the Strategist, February 2020. Back in 2016, Australia launched a new national cybersecurity strategy. The strategy covers a four-year period to 2020, and given the changes in the security environment, an update is now clearly warranted. To that end, the government has just released a discussion paper to kick off the public consultation. The closing date for submissions on the discussion paper is 1 November. To complement the public submission process, ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre is initiating a public debate on what should be included in the next cybersecurity strategy. Contributions will be compiled into a report that we will deliver to the Department of Home Affairs to inform the strategy’s development...	ASPI
	Four Factors that Could Shape Southeast Asia in the Coming Decade, January 2020. Southeast Asia is witnessing major changes to its political, strategic and economic fabric. Some of these, such as the rise of China, have been anticipated for some time, while others, such as the US-China trade dispute, the growing prominence of the Indo-Pacific as a strategic concept, and the Trump administration’s retreat from liberal internationalism, have unfolded rapidly and disruptively during the past few years...	EWC
	Has U.S. Government Angst over the China Danger Diminished? January 2020. The so-called “truce” in the trade war with the signing of the phase one U.S.-China trade agreement on January 15 comes amid indicators that the intense U.S. government consensus pushback against a wide range of perceived challenges posed by China may be subsiding. The American government’s hardening policies toward China emerged somewhat erratically following publication of the surprisingly tough Trump administration national security and national defense strategies at the turn of 2017-2018. Both strategies identified China as America’s top international danger...	EWC
	Addressing China’s Exported Emissions, December 2019. Once known as the world's top carbon polluter, China has recently recommitted itself as a leader in sustainability and renewable energy. Moving to fill the gaps left by the United States at the Paris Climate Talks, China has ramped up its renewable energy commitments, including plans to cap its CO2 emissions, drastically increase forest stocks, and expand its non-fossil fuel market share to 20 percent, all by 2030. This move has been highly favorable for Chinese diplomatic relations with its Southeast and Pacific Island neighbors who have labeled climate change as a top priority...	EWC
	Thailand’s Response to the United States on Labor Rights, December 2019. The United States has suspended Thailand’s trade privileges under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), emphasizing the inadequate protection of worker rights in Thailand as the reason for its judgement. Washington suggests Thailand has not done enough to improve working conditions for both Thai and migrant workers despite numerous domestic reforms in recent years...	EWC
	Cooperation Between the United States and Pakistan: What is the Future? January 2020. Within the Indo-Pacific region, the United States and Pakistan have sharply divergent strategic objectives. While American objectives have changed over time, focusing in recent years on rivalry with China, Pakistan’s strategic objective has remained constant—to maintain a balance of power with India. Yet Pakistan retains close strategic and economic ties with China, and the United States considers India an important strategic partner. Nevertheless, the two countries have worked together for nearly two decades toward two tactical goals—achieving a political settlement in Afghanistan and eliminating terrorism in South Asia. There is potential for them to cooperate more broadly, for example, increasing direct foreign investment to Pakistan and helping Islamabad balance its relations with the United States and China. Washington’s willingness to expand such cooperation will depend on Pakistan’s cooperation in fighting terrorism in the region.	EWC
	Women, Leadership, and Asian Economic Performance, January 2020. In an era of slowing economic growth, Asian countries face an imperative to boost productivity. One possible source of economic revitalization would be to make better use of women in the labor force. Although female representation in corporate leadership has been rising gradually over time, as of 2017, women comprised only 16 percent of executive officers and 11 percent of board members in publicly listed firms in Asia. Research shows that Asian firms with female executive officers and board members perform better in terms of net profit margin and return on assets than firms that lack females in leadership positions. Public policy can improve this gender gap. For one thing, countries that produce large numbers of female college graduates in fields such as law, business, or economics tend to generate more female corporate executives.	EWC
	Determinants of E-Commerce Adoption and Utilisation by SMEs in Thailand, January 2020. This study empirically investigates the factors and barriers which hinder e-commerce adoption and utilisation levels by Thai SMEs in the food and beverage and retail industries. Older SMEs are likely to have lower levels of e-commerce utilisation. Larger SMEs are more likely to adopt e-commerce. Social media and website are significantly drivers of e-commerce utilisation levels. Food delivery platforms are crucial in enhancing higher e-commerce utilisation levels in the food and beverage industry. Smartphones are found to be a cost-effective tools for e-commerce transactions. The most significant barriers which can hinder the e-commerce adoption are customers’ knowledge of e-commerce and internet security...	ISEAS
	MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters, December 2019. The December 2019 Survey was sent out on 21 November 2019 to a total of 27 economists and analysts who closely monitor the Singapore economy. This report reflects the views received from 22 respondents (a response rate of 81.5%) and does not represent MAS’ views or forecasts. The Singapore economy expanded by 0.5% in Q3 2019 compared with the same period last year, higher than the 0.3% projected by respondents in the previous survey. In the current survey, year-on-year growth in Q4 2019 is expected to come in at 1.0%...	MAS
	2018 Singapore Asset Management Industry Survey, September 2019. 2018 was a challenging year for global financial markets and the asset management industry. Global assets under management (“AUM”) declined by 4% to US$74 trillion, compared to an increase of 12% in 2017, weighed down by uncertain global growth prospects. Global net inflows for 2018 also slowed to US$944 billion, below the record high of US$2.2 trillion in 2017, reflecting investors’ cautious stance amidst the uncertain outlook. In contrast, Singapore’s asset management industry registered a relatively good expansion of 5.4% to S$3.4 trillion, or US$2.5 trillion. Singapore continues to serve as the Global-Asia gateway for asset managers and investors to tap the region’s growth opportunities, with 75% of AUM sourced from outside of Singapore in 2018. 67% of total AUM was invested in the Asia Pacific, of which more than a third of Asia Pacific AUM were investments into ASEAN countries...	MAS
	Latest APEC publications: Reference Guide for Peer Review and Capacity Building on APEC Infrastructure Development and Investment, December 2019 FTAAP Capacity Building Workshop on E-commerce Elements in FTAs/RTAs, December 2019 Report of the APEC Vision Group – People and Prosperity: An APEC Vision to 2040, December 2019 Letter from the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC) on a Post-2020 Vision for APEC, August 2019 Report of the PECC Task Force on APEC Beyond 2020: A Vision for APEC 2040, Published 2019 APEC's Bogor Goals Dashboard, December 2019 Manual for Competition Assessment of Regulations in the Philippines, December 2019 Analysis of the Impacts of Slow Steaming for Distant Economies, December 2019 APEC Marine Sustainable Development Report 2: Supporting Implementation of Sustainable Development Goal 14 and Related Goals in APEC, December 2019 APEC Women's Participation in the Mining Industry, December 2019 APEC Oil and Gas Security Exercise in Chile, December 2019 Exchange and Training on Clean Coal Technology and Clean Energy Policy, December 2019 Current Energy Efficiency Requirements for Electric Motors in the APEC and ASEAN Regions, December 2019 Research on Integrated Multi-energy System to Improve Energy Efficiency and Enhance Technological Progress of Renewable Energy in the APEC Region, October 2019 Quality Assurance of Online Learning Toolkit, Published 2019 Asia-Pacific Cross-Border Higher Education Provider Mobility: Report on a Survey of Policy and Practice, December 2019	APEC
	Latest ADB Working Paper Series: Education, Skill Training, and Lifelong Learning in the Era of Technological Revolution, January 2020 Global Bitcoin Markets and Local Regulations, January 2020 Propagation of Positive Effects of Postdisaster Policies through Supply Chains: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, January 2020 Impacts of Natural Disasters on Households and Small Businesses in India, December 2019	ADB
	Latest ADBI Working Paper Series: Naïve or Sophisticated? Information Disclosure and Investment Decisions in Peer-to-Peer Lending, January 2020 State-Owned Enterprises in Uzbekistan: Taking Stock and Some Reform Priorities, January 2020 Enhancing Financial Connectivity between Asia and Europe: Implications for Infrastructure Convergence between the Two Regions, January 2020 Human Capital, Economic Growth, and Public Expenditure, January 2020 Designing Central Bank Digital Currencies, December 2019 How Does Population Aging Affect the Effectiveness of Monetary and Fiscal Policies? December 2019 Different Paths to Economic Integration in Europe and Asia December 2019 Economic Integration and Network Trade: A Comparison of East Asia and the European Union December 2019 Why Is There No Asian Monetary Fund? December 2019 Reforms and Crises in Government Statistics: The Case of Japan, December 2019 Does Regulation Promote Sustainable Development Outcomes? Empirical Evidence from the Indian Electricity Sector, December 2019 Energy Insecurity in Turkey: Opportunities for Renewable Energy, December 2019 Reform and Privatization of State-Owned Enterprises in India, December 2019 Reforming SOEs in Asia: Lessons from Competition Law and Policy in India, December 2019 Is the Management Evaluation System of State-Owned Enterprises in the Republic of Korea a Good Tool for Better Performance? December 2019 Framework for Public Transport Integration at Railway Stations and Its Implications for Quality of Life, December 2019	ADB
	Latest ADB Publications: Ways to Achieve Green Asia, Published 2020 Trade Adjustment in Asia: Past Experiences and Lessons Learned, Published 2020 Water Insecurity and Sanitation in Asia, Published 2019 Aging Societies: Policies and Perspectives, Published 2019 Cambodia’s Property Tax Reform: Policy Considerations Toward Sustained Revenue Mobilization, January 2020 Asian Development Bank and the United States: Fact Sheet, January 2020 Asia's Journey to Prosperity: Policy, Market, and Technology Over 50 Years, Published 2020 Growing Old Before Becoming Rich: Challenges of an Aging Population in Sri Lanka, December 2019 Agriculture Development in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program Member Countries: Review of Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities, December 2019 Carbon Dioxide-Enhanced Oil Recovery in Indonesia: An Assessment of its Role in a Carbon Capture and Storage Pathway, December 2019 The Demographic Dividend in Bhutan: Taking Advantage of Transition, Published 2019 Developing National Student Assessment Systems for Quality Education: Lessons from the Republic of Korea, December 2019 Inclusive Growth in the People’s Republic of China: A Deep Look at Men and Women’s Work Amid Demographic, Technological, and Structural Transformations, December 2019 Pacific Energy Update 2019 Why Pakistan’s Economic Growth Continues to Be Balance-of-Payments Constrained, December 2019 Reforming Pension Insurance in the People’s Republic of China, December 2019 Toward High-Quality Development in the People’s Republic of China, December 2019 Promoting Old-Age Vitality in the People’s Republic of China, December 2019 Maintaining Social Cohesion in the People’s Republic of China in the New Era, December 2019 Ecological Civilization in the People’s Republic of China: Values, Action, and Future Needs, December 2019 Population Aging and Its Economic Consequences for the People’s Republic of China, November 2019 Economic Update: Maldives 2019 Pacific Economic Monitor, December 2019 Pacific Transport Update 2019	ADB
	Latest Philippine Institute for Development Studies - Policy Notes: Examining the Implementation of PBB Scheme in the Public Sector, January 2020 Issues and Concerns in the Implementation of Pbb at Deped, December 2019 Challenges in the Implementation of the PBB Scheme in NGAs, December 2019 Improving Human Resource Through Mutual Recognition in Asean, December 2019 Effects of TRAIN Fuel Excise Taxes on Goods and Prices, October 2019 Impacts of TRAIN Fuel Excise Taxes on Employment and Poverty, October 2019	PIDS
	Philippine Institute for Development Studies - Research Paper Series: Facilitating Structural Transformation through Product Space Analysis: The Case of Philippine Exports, Published 2019 Obstacles of Philippine SMEs' Participation in Global Value Chains, Published 2019	PIDS
	Philippine Institute for Development Studies - Development Research News, October-December 2019	PIDS


January, 2020

	Hong Kong: High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecasts Current Quarter Model: 2020Q1, January 2020. Hong Kong’s real GDP is estimated to drop by 3.3% in 19Q4 when compared with the same period in 2018, extending the downward trend of a 2.9% drop in 19Q3. Hong Kong’s economy is expected to shrink by an annual 1.3% for 2019, representing a 1.3 percentage points downward revision from our previous forecast. Global economic slowdown and prolonged protests brought by the anti-extradition bill have hampered consumer confidence and discouraged investments, leading to a higher unemployment rate. In 20Q1, contraction of real GDP is expected to continue to drop by 2.8%, when compared with the same period in 2019. With the government’s supportive stimulus measures, the situation is expected to stabilize in the latter half of 2020. Hong Kong’s annual GDP growth for 2020 is forecast to be a mild 0.4%...	HKU
	China’s Economic Choices: Where to from Here? December 2019. China’s economic progress is slowing. A rapidly ageing population means its demographics are becoming increasingly unfavourable, and China has reached the limits of its traditional reliance on investment and exports to fuel rapid economic growth. The key question is what comes next. Continuing with the same approach risks a further decline in the pace of growth. This would create major difficulties for its highly leveraged economy, disappoint the growth expectations of its populace, and add to the internal and external economic risks that are already evident. Deep reforms will be required just to sustain a trajectory of 5–6 per cent growth over the coming decade. Beijing’s current policy strategy, with its focus on domestic innovation and protecting the privileged status of state-owned enterprises, is unlikely to prove sufficient...	Lowy
	Rethinking Taiwan Policy: History, Politics, Ideology, December 2019. The issue of Taiwan has long been one of the most intractable and multilayered in regional political, defence, foreign affairs, trade and security policy. Taiwan is claimed by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as part of its territory, and, under its official title of the Republic of China (ROC), Taiwan is limited by Beijing to a marginal position in the international system. Political relations between Taipei and Beijing are fractious, but the Taiwan Strait is at the same time a critical link in global supply chains, carrying hundreds of billions of dollars of cross-strait trade in goods and services and investments every year. Hanging over this political and economic relationship is the constant threat of military action from Beijing...	ASPI
	Augmenting Maritime Domain Awareness in Southeast Asia: Boosting National Capabilities in the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia, December 2019. Promoting maritime domain awareness (MDA) has become an increasingly high priority area for many Southeast Asian states. The rising salience of a regional maritime ‘disorder’ that’s increasingly being shaped by the influence of so-called ‘grey area’ phenomena, combined with a growing awareness that these non-state challenges can be dealt with only through a whole-of-government approach, has prompted several regional countries to create multiagency operational fusion centres (FCs) to mitigate these dangers...	ASPI
	Ocean Horizons: Strengthening Maritime Security in Indo-Pacific Island States, December 2019. The report examines how Pacific island countries (PICs) and Indian Ocean island states (IO island states) are managing and prioritising their maritime security challenges. These islands, which we call the ‘Indo-Pacific island states’, face an intricate offshore tapestry. In particular, this report suggests that most of the maritime threats and risks facing the Indo-Pacific island states are increasing. That’s in part because of the general lack of effective maritime security identified in this report. The report describes the current geopolitical environment of the Indo-Pacific island states and how we should understand maritime security in the context of island states...	ASPI
	How the Geopolitical Partnership Between China and Russia Threatens the West, November 2019. We’re in an era when the risks of major-power conflict are growing. The most likely contenders are China, the rising power, and the US, the formerly dominant power that’s now in relative decline. The other worrying contingency is conflict between Russia and US-led NATO. But what about the third possibility: the prospect of China and Russia collaborating to challenge American power? The most dangerous scenario for America would be a grand coalition of China and Russia united not by ideology, but by complementary grievances. This paper examines Russian and Chinese concepts of great-power war in the 21st century, their views of the West and its military capabilities, and what risks they might both take to regain lost territories...	ASPI
	Trends in Southeast Asia 2019 #18: The Belt and Road Initiative: Environmental Impacts in Southeast Asia. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is expected to be the largest infrastructure development scheme of the twenty-first century. There is escalating concern over BRI’s potential environmental impacts in Southeast Asia, a global biodiversity hotspot and a focus area of BRI development. Case studies of Indonesia, Myanmar, Lao PDR and Malaysia show that the success of BRI in bringing about sustainable growth and opportunities depends on the Chinese government and financiers, as well as the agencies and governments involved when BRI investments take place. The adoption of best environmental practices is critical in ensuring that growth is sustainable and that bad environmental practices are not locked in for decades to come...	ISEAS
	Trends in Southeast Asia 2019 #17: "Old" and "New" Chinese Business in Cambodia’s Capital. China’s influence over economic and political affairs in Cambodia is undisputed. It is the biggest investor in Cambodia, adding nearly US$5.3 billion between 2013 and 2017, especially into real estate development, the garment industry and the tourism sector. For Phnom Penh’s SMEs, “new” Chinese migrants are an increasingly important clientele, and raw materials, machinery, consumer goods and capital from Greater China have been vital resources. At the same time, they face competition from entrepreneurs from China entering the Cambodian market. For Cambodia’s elite entrepreneurs, known as oknha, China is an export destination for Cambodian timber and cash crops, and “new” Chinese investments provide business opportunities in the form of construction contracts and joint ventures in real estate and tourism development, industrial parks or the energy sector...	ISEAS
	Trends in Southeast Asia 2019 #16: E-commerce for Malaysian SMEs in Selected Services: Barriers and Benefits. Findings from a recent survey done to identify the barriers and benefits of e-commerce for Malaysian SMEs in the retail and food and beverage services indicate that both e-commerce adopters and non-adopters are similar in that they perceive the CEO or decision-maker to be the most important factor in the adoption of e-commerce. The relative importance of the other three main factors (namely, organizational, technological and environmental) differ for adopters and non-adopters. Likewise, there are also differences in response based on firm size. Based on the survey findings, Malaysia needs to shift from one-size-fits-all strategies to a more nuanced policy response that addresses the differences in perceived barriers of adopters and non-adopters and which is also cognizant of firm size...	ISEAS
	A Steady Hand: The EU 2019 Strategy & Policy Toward Central Asia, November 2019. The launch of a new EU Strategy for Central Asia in June 2019 marked a milestone in the gradual development of relations between the EU and the region. The Strategy’s launch coincides with considerable change in and around the region. Internally, Central Asia has experienced a renewed commitment to reform and regionalism; meanwhile, the region has seen a greater engagement by neighboring powers, most immediately through large-scale Chinese and Russian initiatives, but also in the shape of a growing interest on the part of Asian powers as well as the United States. A closer analysis of the EU’s engagement with Central Asia paradoxically indicates a sort of parallel evolution: both the EU and the Central Asian states are products of the post-cold war era, and their relations have intensified along with their own internal evolution into ever more solid entities on the international scene...	ISDP
	Latest APEC publications: FTAAP Capacity Building Workshop on Competition Policy under the 3rd REI CBNI: Sharing Good Examples of FTAs/EPAs, December 2019 Trade Policy Dialogue on Fostering an Enabling Policy and Regulatory Environment in APEC for Data-utilizing Businesses, December 2019 Diagnosis of Applicability of the APEC Customs Transit Guidelines, December 2019 APEC Workshop on Integrated Energy Water Planning and Policy Formulation, December 2019 Developing Training Materials to Promote the Reduction of Mercury Use in Artisanal and Small-scale Gold Mining, December 2019 Advancing Women's Economic Empowerment through Data: Challenges and Opportunities in the Asia-Pacific Region, December 2019 Compendium of Policies and Preventive Measures to Reduce Land-based Marine Debris in APEC Economies, December 2019 APEC Women at Work, Published 2019 APEC in Charts 2019 Fact sheet: 2019 APEC Economic Policy Report 2019 APEC Economic Policy Report 2019 CTI Annual Report to Ministers Fact sheet: 2019 APEC Senior Officials' Report on Economic and Technical Cooperation APEC Senior Officials' Report on Economic and Technical Cooperation 2019	APEC
	Asian Development Outlook 2019 Supplement: Growth Slows Further in Developing Asia’s Giants, December 2019. This Supplement projects growth in developing Asia of 5.2% in both 2019 and 2020, having revised forecasts down given the challenging global environment. Excluding newly industrialized economies, regional growth forecasts are revised down to 5.7% for both 2019 and 2020. Regional inflation projections are revised up to 2.8% for 2019 and 3.1% for 2020 as African swine fever continues to elevate pork prices. Elusive trade conflict resolution weighs on sentiment and activity in the region, with further delay still the foremost downside risk to the forecasts.	ADB
	Latest ADBI Working Paper Series: Innovative Measures for Infrastructure Investments: Illustrating Land Trust Scheme and Spillover Effect, December 2019 Financial Cycles in Asset Markets and Regions, December 2019 The (Economic) Impacts of Climate Change: Some Implications for Asian Economies, December 2019 Environmental Challenges and Sustainable Economic Development in the People’s Republic of China: The Role of Renewable Energy across Provinces, December 2019 Dimensions of Energy Insecurity on Small Islands: The Case of the Maldives, December 2019 Impact of Social Safeguarding on Private Land Ownership and Individual Well-Being: The Case of Sri Lanka, December 2019 Designing Fair Compensation for Compulsory Acquisition of Land: Empirical Estimation of Hope Value, Blight, and the Negative Impact of Landowners’ Caste on the Value of Land in Bengaluru (India), December 2019 Entry Barriers to Motivate Multinational Joint Ventures: A Mixed Oligopoly Analysis, November 2019 A Model for Calculating the Optimal Credit Guarantee Fee for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises, November 2019 Assessment of Trade Integration Patterns between the Russian Federation and East Asian Economies Using Panel-Gravity Framework, November 2019 Resilient Coastal Cities for Enhancing Tourism Economy: Integrated Planning Approaches, November 2019 State Ownership and Nationalization in Energy Sector: The Case of Kazakhstan's Oil Industry, November 2019 Toward Energy Security in ASEAN: Impacts of Regional Integration, Renewables, and Energy Efficiency, November 2019 Evolution of High-Speed Rail and Its Development Effects: Stylized Facts and Review of Relationships, November 2019 The Privatization of Japan Railways and Japan Post: Why, How, and Now, November 2019 Avoiding Energy Insecurity by Promoting Private Investment—The Case of the Vietnamese Power Sector, November 2019 Examining the Town Planning Scheme of India and Lessons from Land Readjustment in Japan, November 2019 Land Acquisition in Indonesia and Law No. 2 of 2012, November 2019 Implementing Land Trust in Bangladesh as a Strategy for Financing Infrastructure and Sustainable Land Management, November 2019 Social, Political, and Economic Considerations for Securing the Land and Well-Being of the Urban Poor and Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, November 2019	ADB
	Latest ADB Working Paper Series: Offshore Fears and Onshore Risk: Exchange Rate Pressures and Bank Volatility Contagion in the People’s Republic of China, December 2019 Generating Multiple Resilience Dividends from Managing Unnatural Disasters in Asia Opportunities for Measurement and Policy, December 2019 Build Back Better: What Is It, and What Should It Be? December 2019 The Role of Fintech in Mitigating Information Friction in Supply Chain Finance, December 2019 National-to-Local Aid and Recovery from Extreme Weather Events: Evidence from the Philippines, December 2019	ADB
	Hmong Studies Journal, Vol. 20, 2019	HSJ
	Chinese Southern Diaspora Studies, Volume 8, 2019	CSDS