The Dragon Looks South, June 2008
Fergus Hanson
China refuses to release figures on the size
of its aid program. In this new Lowy Institute Analysis, Fergus Hanson
takes a region-wide look at the scale of China’s aid program, revealing
a dramatic increase in aid pledges since 2005. It looks at the key
drivers of China’s engagement, the reactions its aid program has
sparked, and concludes with some suggestions for improving the way
Australia and other donors engage with China in the Pacific.
Nuclear Energy in Southeast Asia: Implications for Australia and
Non-proliferation, April 2008
Andrew Symon
This Lowy Institute Analysis by regional
energy specialist Andrew Symon explores the reasons and prospects for
increased interest in nuclear power in Southeast Asia, as well as
implications for Australia and nuclear weapons non-proliferation. A key
issue is whether countries will embark on sensitive segments of the fuel
cycle. Approaches to help allay such concerns include international fuel
supply mechanisms and the possibility of a co-operative approach to
nuclear power development within ASEAN. Australia, as a major uranium
supplier, regional neighbhour and supporter of non-proliferation, will
want to ensure that nuclear power in Southeast Asia develops safely and
in a context of co-operation.
Beijing 2008 Olympic Games: One Year to Go, October 2007
John Bowan
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, John Bowan
looks at the progress of the 2008 Beijing Olympics. On the technical
side all looks good. On the political and public relations side, there
are a number of growing challenges. These span from Taiwan's
participation in the Torch Relay, to environmental concerns to growing
criticism of Chinese foreign and domestic policies by international NGOs
like Amnesty International. Next year's Olympics will put Beijing and
China on the world stage The question is: where will the spotlight
shine?
John Bowan has worked as a consultant on Beijing's successful bid for
the Games and was Manager of International Relations for the Sydney
Games from 1997 to 2000. In 2004, John wrote a longer piece on the
international politics of the Beijing Games for the Lowy Institute.
Second Thoughts on Globalisation: An Update, September 2007
Mark Thirlwell
Earlier this year in Lowy Institute Paper
18, 'Second thoughts on globalisation', Mark Thirlwell looked at how the
globalisation-powered rise of China and India was disconcerting some in
the developed world, and prompting a re-evaluation of the costs and
benefits of globalisation. This Lowy Institute Analysis looks at how
this process has evolved since the earlier Paper was written.
Ten Years After the Asian Crisis: Is the IMF Ready for 'Next Time'?
August 2007
Dr Stephen Grenville AO
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Dr Stephen
Grenville looks back at the decade-old Asian financial crisis in search
of insights on current vulnerabilities. Dr Grenville argues that while
there is little chance of any repeat of 1997-98 any time soon, at some
point in the future the core vulnerabilities of the crisis period will
re-emerge: volatile capital flows and fragile financial markets.
Moreover, if the future does hold another sudden stop capital reversal,
the IMF has neither the resources nor the procedures to act as an
effective lender of last resort. Worse, the Fund lost credibility in the
region during the crisis, which means that countries will be slow and
reluctant to draw on its assistance.
The European Union and China: A Rude Awakening, April 2007
Roberto Menotti
In this new Lowy Institute Analysis, Roberto
Menotti of the Aspen Institute Italia examines the European Union's
policy responses to the rise of China.
The EU is a newcomer to East Asian affairs, but its stake in the region
is growing rapidly in light of China's economic clout. The European
approach to China's rise differs profoundly from that of the US, due to
geopolitical realities and a general belief in the benign effects of
economic interdependence. Roberto Menotti argues, however, that the EU
has so far failed to pursue a coherent common policy, as seen in the
debate in 2004-2005 over Europe's decision to revoke the arms ban on
China. He suggests that one problem of the European approach has been
the fuzzy distinction between multilateralism (an international
methodology) and multipolarity (a particular type of international
system).
Roberto Menotti is Senior Research Fellow in the International Programs
at Aspen Institute Italia in Rome.
After Doha: II. Is Globalisation History? October 2006
Mark Thirlwell
In this Lowy Institute Analysis Mark
Thirlwell asks whether the collapse of the Doha Round of trade
negotiations marks the beginning of the end for globalisation. Several
observers have warned of the dangers of a resurgent protectionism,
drawing in particular on the historical example provided by the collapse
of an earlier globalisation episode. A review of globalisation,
nineteenth century style, suggests that such concerns are overdone.
Nevertheless, the historical record confirms that globalisation does
create significant adjustment pressures, highlighting the importance of
a fully functioning multilateral trading system. This paper is a
companion piece to After Doha: I. The search for Plan B.
After Doha: I. The Search for Plan B, September 2006
Mark
Thirlwell
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Mark
Thirlwell argues that while the suspension of negotiations in late July
may or may not mark the end of the Doha Round, it will almost certainly
mark a watershed for the international trading system. With Doha in the
deep freeze and the future of the multilateral system in question, the
search is now on for a Plan B for international trade. The most likely
Plan B on offer is a deepening of the world economy's recent infatuation
with preferential trade agreements. In the long term, however, the best
alternative would look to reform of the multilateral system.
Roaring Tiger
or Lumbering Elephant? Assessing the Performance, Prospects and Problems
of India's Development Model, August 2006
Mark
Thirlwell
After years of economic underperformance,
the Indian economic model has been transformed, and with it, India's
growth performance. So much so that the last two years have brought both
a widespread rethink on India’s prospects and a wave of foreign
portfolio investment. This new-found optimism received something of a
setback earlier this year, when there were sharp falls in Indian stocks
markets. In a new paper that updates the analysis in his Lowy Paper
'India: the next economic giant', Mark Thirlwell takes another look at
India's development model, evaluating both its strengths and its
weaknesses and highlighting the idiosyncratic nature of India’s
development path.
Koizumi's Legacy: Japan's New Politics, August 2006
Dr Malcolm Cook
In a new Analysis, Dr Malcolm Cook evaluates
Prime Minister Koizumi's legacy for Japanese politics and international
policy. Koizumi has rebuilt the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, moved
the Japanese political system significantly to the right and
reprioritised Japan's international policy. He has been Japan's most
powerful, controversial and successful post-war prime minister.
Fuelling Confrontation: Iran, the US and the Oil Weapon, May 2006
Anthony Bubalo Dr Michael Fullilove Mark
Thirlwell
In this new Lowy Institute Analysis, Anthony
Bubalo, Michael Fullilove and Mark Thirlwell explore the prospect and
implications of Iran's using oil as a weapon in its current
confrontation with the international community over the nuclear issue.
The Testament of Solomons: RAMSI and International State-building, March
2006
Dr Michael Fullilove
In this new Analysis, Dr Michael Fullilove
analyses the innovative Australian-led state-building exercise, the
Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI). The mission has
made significant progress since its deployment in 2003, securing law and
order, arresting the country’s perilous decline and placing it on a new
trajectory. The next important tests for the mission will be the
national election in Solomon Islands on 5 April and the formation of a
new government in the following weeks.
RAMSI’s design is unique: preventive; permissive; regional in nature;
nationally led; supported by the United Nations; non-sovereign; police
led; and light in touch. This Analysis examines these characteristics
and the implications for international state-building, and surveys
RAMSI’s future challenges.
Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza, February 2006
Professor Warwick McKibbin and
Dr Alexandra Sidorenko
In a major new Analysis, Professor Warwick
McKibbin and Dr Alexandra Sidorenko explore the implications of a
pandemic influenza outbreak on the global economy.
Their paper examines a range of scenarios
(mild, moderate, severe and ultra) that span the historical experience
of influenza pandemics of the twentieth century.
Their analysis finds that a pandemic
would be expected to lead to: a fall in the labour force; an increase in
the cost of doing business; a shift in consumer preferences; and a
re-evaluation of country risk.
The paper finds that even a mild pandemic
has significant consequences for global output, costing the world 1.4
million lives and approximately US$330 billion in lost output.
Multilateral Approaches to the Nuclear Fuel Cycle,
August 2005
Lance Joseph
In the latest Lowy Institute Issues
Brief, "Multilateral Approaches to the Nuclear Fuel Cycle", former
Australian Governor on the Board of the International Atomic Energy
Agency, Lance Joseph, addresses nuclear proliferation dangers of today
and how these might be addressed. It would help, for example, if
proliferation-sensitive technologies — enrichment and reprocessing —
were put under multilateral control.
Australia, with its strong
non-proliferation credentials, might take a leading role with a
coalition of countries to build support for such an approach.
Angels and Dragons: Asia, the UN, reform and the next
Secretary-General, July 2005
Dr Michael Fullilove
This Issues Brief assesses the
relationship between the United Nations and Asia – both the UN's
activities in Asia and the behaviour of Asian states at the UN. Dr
Michael Fullilove, Program Director for Global Issues, reviews the
current stances of the three major regional powers — China, India, and
Japan — towards the UN, previews the September World Summit on UN
reform, and examines the prospects for an Asian Secretary-General, which
has the potential to thicken Asia's interactions with the UN.
Buying Air Warfare Destroyers: a Strategic
Decision, June 2005
Professor Hugh White
The Government has chosen a builder for
three new Air Warfare Destroyers [AWDs] before it has properly
considered whether we really need to buy them, and how best to buy them
if we do. At $6 billion it's the biggest defence equipment decision in
fifteen years, so it needs more careful consideration. In fact AWDs are
far from our highest defence priority; buying them would be a mistake,
and squeeze more important Air and Army capabilities. And Defence's
complex new acquisition process raises real risks that, if it goes
ahead, the project will run into some of the same problems that have
dogged the Collins submarines. Ministers need to look carefully before
signing off on it.
Building a Democratic Palestine: an Australian
Contribution to Legal and Institutional Development in
the Palestinian Territories, May 2005
Anthony Bubalo
Legal and institutional reform in the
Palestinian territories is a critical and often overlooked component of
the effort to reach a peaceful settlement between Israel and the
Palestinians. This Issues Brief by Anthony Bubalo explores the
importance of such reforms in the context of current efforts to end
violence against Israel and provide Palestinians with greater confidence
in their economic and political future. It argues that Australia should
join other donors in contributing what assistance it can to help
Palestinians strengthen the rule of law and build strong public
institutions.
Sensible Climate Policy, February 2005
Professor Warwick McKibbin
After almost 13 years of negotiations the
Kyoto Protocol will finally enter into force on February 16, 2005. In a
new Lowy Institute Issues Brief, Professorial Fellow Warwick McKibbin,
one of the world's leading authorities on climate change policy, argues
that Kyoto is likely to achieve very little in the quest to address the
problem of climate change. Even worse, the Kyoto Protocol is so badly
constructed that it has set back the quest for sensible and effective
policy responses to climate change by at least a decade. The basic
tenets on which the agreement is built are flawed, leaving it worryingly
vulnerable to failure. In this Issues Brief Professor McKibbin outlines
the requirements for a sustainable and realistic global response to
climate change, describes the progress made so far in developing policy,
outlines the flaws in the current Kyoto approach, and presents a more
effective alternative.
India's Energy Needs, December 2004
Nick Hordern
India's exploding demand for energy is
confronting New Delhi with two important dilemmas. India's internal
dilemma is that to satisfy its energy needs, it must balance reform and
expansion of its energy sector with the need to avoid alienating key
domestic constituencies. The external dilemma derives from India's
increasing reliance on imported energy against the backdrop of a hostile
neighbourhood.
Nick Hordern analyses the consequences of India's exploding demand for
energy and looks at some of the implications for Australia.
Energy Insecurity: China,
India and Middle East Oil, December 2004
Anthony Bubalo Mark Thirlwell
Anthony Bubalo and Mark Thirlwell examine
China and India's growing thirst for imported oil, particularly from the
Middle East, and consider some of the possible longer term strategic
implications associated with this trend in a new Lowy Institute Issues
Brief.
The 'Khmer Islam' Community in Cambodia and Its Foreign
Patrons, November 2004
Dr Milton Osborne
Dr Milton Osborne, Australia's
pre-eminent Cambodia expert, in a new Lowy Institute Issues Brief, looks
at the revival of Cambodia's Islamic minority in the post-Pol Pot
period. After providing a detailed historical background of Khmer Islam
and its social marginalisation, the report analyses the largely
unreported role regional and Middle Eastern groups and Islamist
doctrines are playing in this proposal. Cambodia's revival, as with the
rest of Southeast Asia, is a complex mix of entrenched local factors and
new regional and Middle Eastern influences.
Beyond Arafat, November 2004
Anthony Bubalo
Anthony Bubalo, research fellow, argues
that Yasser Arafat's death could have longer term positive implications
for both Palestinian political reform and efforts to resolve the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but in the short term the impact will be
more limited. Arafat's immediate successors will not be able to end the
current chaos in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Nor are the fundamentals
of the current impasse with Israel likely to be overcome.
Bush is from Mars, Kerry is from Mars too, October 2004
Dr Michael Fullilove
Although there are significant
differences in style and substance between George Bush and John Kerry,
the similarities in foreign policy terms are more striking than is
sometimes understood.
From Australia's perspective, the fundamentals of our relationship with
the US are excellent and the alliance will endure regardless of
Tuesday's outcome.
However, argues Michael Fullilove in this Issues Brief, the temperature
of the relationship will necessarily be affected by the result.
Transpacific Trade Imbalances: Causes and Cures,
September 2004
Professor Warwick McKibbin
This Issues Brief by Professor Warwick
McKibbin and others explores the causes of the transpacific trade
imbalances using an empirical global model. It also evaluates the impact
of various policies to reduce these imbalances.
We find the fundamental cause of trade imbalance since 1997 is changes
in saving-investment gaps, attributed to the surge of the U.S. fiscal
deficits and the decline of East Asia's private investment after the
1997 financial crisis.
An appreciation of East Asia exchange rates (including by China) alone
will have an impact on economic activity in the appreciating economies,
but does little to change the underlying savings and investment patterns
and therefore has insignificant impact on the transpacific trade
balance.
The Beijing 2008 Olympic Games: China in the limelight,
August 2004
John Bowan
John Bowan, a former senior Australian
foreign policy official, and consultant to Beijing's successful Olympic
bid, examines how Beijing and China won the 2008 Games and what this
will mean for China and its position in the world.
The 2008 Olympics will open China to unprecedented international
scrutiny, with consequences that will range far beyond sport.
Israel's withdrawal from Gaza: a role for Australia? May
2004
Anthony Bubalo
This paper explores the possibility that
further Australian military forces will be sought for the Middle East,
in this case for a peacekeeping force in the Gaza Strip.
Despite the defeat of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plan for a
unilateral withdrawal from Gaza in a Likud Party referendum, the Israeli
public will continue to press for a withdrawal, and, in all likelihood,
it will occur. But the withdrawal process itself raises a number of
questions and it is likely that international assistance, in the form of
a small peacekeeping force, will be required. If this occurs, Australia
may be sought out as one of only a few countries whose contribution
would be acceptable to Israel and the Palestinians.
Election Watch. Japan's Party System: Shifting the
Political Axis, Releasing Economic Reform, February 2004
Dr Malcolm Cook
This Issues Brief examines how changes to
the Japanese political system, reflected in the November 9 election
results, offer new hope for structural economic reforms that would
benefit Australia
The Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement: A
Preliminary Assessment, February 2004
Mark Thirlwell
On 8 February Australian Trade Minister
Mark Vaile concluded an agreed text for an Australia-United States Free
Trade Agreement. This Issues Brief provides a preliminary assessment of
the agreement, based on the limited information now available.
The International Economy in 2003: Managing Economic
Imbalances in An Integrated World, January 2004
Mark Thirlwell
This Issues Brief suggests that a key
theme over the past year has been the management of external imbalances
in a world economy that is not only increasingly integrated but which is
simultaneously undergoing a sustained geographic shift in the
distribution of economic weight towards Asia.
Revaluing the Renminbi: A Case of 'Deja Vu All Over
Again?' November 2003
Mark Thirlwell
There are strong parallels between
today’s US-China tensions over trade and US-Japan economic relations in
the 1980s.
|
