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Subprime Nation? America's Economic Policy Challenges, October 2011
Mark Thirlwell
The August 2011 sovereign downgrade of the United States by Standard &
Poor’s was seen by many international observers as a symbol of a US
economy in relative decline. In a new Lowy Institute Perspectives, based
on a speech he delivered last month to the National Security College at
the Australian National University, Mark Thirlwell takes a look at some
of the key economic policy challenges currently facing American
policymakers.
New Voices 2011: Dynamic Asia, September 2011
On 8 July 2011, the Lowy Institute for International Policy hosted its
eighth annual New Voices conference. The 2011 conference ‘Dynamic Asia’
adopted an Indo-Pacific regional focus. ‘Dynamic Asia’ required
participants to interrogate the way in which we think about Asia as a
geopolitical and economic entity – provoking them to offer new ideas
about how Australia should contemplate and approach this rapidly
transforming region.
Obama's Alliances, August 2011
Dr Steven Casey
On the 60th anniversary of the signing of ANZUS, the Lowy Institute has
released a report on Barack Obama’s approach to alliances and what this
means for the Australia-US alliance.
The report has been written by Dr Steven Casey, an international
historian at the LSE. Dr Casey argues that Obama is a hardheaded liberal
in the mould of his Democratic predecessors Franklin Roosevelt and Harry
Truman. President Obama has been far more alliance-friendly than
candidate Obama. In the Asian region, he has moved to toughen up with
China and strengthen the country's ties with its Asia-Pacific allies,
including Australia. Faced with economic woes and new rivals, Dr Casey
predicts, Washington will not step away from its allies. Quite the
opposite: it will seek to clutch them more tightly.
Uncharted Waters: the US alliance and Australia's New Era of Strategic
Uncertainty, August 2011
Andrew Shearer
September 2011 marks two important milestones – the tenth anniversary of
the devastating 9/11 terrorist attacks and the 60th anniversary of the
signing of the ANZUS security treaty during the height of the Cold War.
In a new paper in the Lowy Institute’s Perspective series, 'Uncharted
waters: the US alliance and Australia’s new era of strategic
uncertainty', Andrew Shearer reviews Australian public attitudes towards
the US alliance in the wake of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and
America’s unprecedented credit downgrading.
Launched on 17th August, this unique take on the future of the alliance
was immediately picked up by national commentators, adding to a robust
discussion and debate on US-China commentary.
Middle-Power Approaches to Resource Politics in the Pacific, August 2011
The Lowy Institute convened a forum on 10 May 2011 to examine
middle-power approaches to resource politics in the Pacific. The forum
explored corporate social responsibility and the operational approach of
resources companies from middle-power countries like Australia and
Canada in developing countries. Resource-rich Papua New Guinea faced
some challenges in ensuring that the implementation of corporate social
responsibility principles continued to improve across the country with
the arrival of newer players in the resources sector.
There were significant opportunities for both companies and communities
to benefit from constructive partnerships in developing Pacific
countries if companies were sensitive to local customs and cultures,
were transparent and adhered to best international practice.
The report of the forum has been published in this Lowy Institute
Perspective.
The New Public Diplomacy, April 2011
Fergus Hanson
Lowy Institute Research Fellow Fergus Hanson has published an article in
the April issue of the Australian Institute of International Affairs'
AIIA Policy Commentary on international relations in the digital age,
entitled 'The new public diplomacy'.
The full issue is available at: http://www.aiia.asn.au/resources/publications
Justice or Stability? Hizbullah, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and
Consequences for the Region, March 2011
Dr Rodger Shanahan
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis, Non-resident Fellow Dr Rodger Shanahan
explores what the outcomes of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon,
investigating the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri,
will mean for both key domestic actors in Lebanese politics, most
notably Hizbullah, and regional players like Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia
and the United States.
Risky Business: Emerging Risks for Cross-border Business, March 2011
Mark Thirlwell
Mark Thirlwell, the Director of the Lowy Institute’s International
Economy program, takes a look at the changing international economic
environment facing cross-border businesses, and highlights nine downside
risks.
'But this time, everything turns out differently': what the Tunisian and
Egyptian uprisings mean for the Middle East, February 2011
Anthony Bubalo
In a new Lowy Institute Perspective, West Asia Program Director Anthony
Bubalo examines the consequences for the Middle East of the uprisings in
Tunisia and Egypt. ‘But this time everything turns out differently’
argues that the uprisings reflect long-terms trends and crises common to
most countries of the region and their impact will be felt for many
years to come.
The uprisings have also focused attention on the role of Islamist
movements. In 2008 the Lowy Institute explored this question in 'Zealous
democrats: Islamism and democracy in Egypt, Indonesia and Turkey', which
examined how Islamist movements try to adapt to democratic politics.
Australia's Choices in 2011, February 2011
Dr Michael Wesley
The fate of the West. The shape of Asia. The choices facing Australia.
These are big questions.
Dr Michael Wesley addressed these questions in a speech delivered on 10
February.
Our Post-GFC World Economy, December 2010
Mark Thirlwell
In a new Perspectives, Mark Thirlwell, Director of the Lowy Institute's
International Economy program, pulls together several speeches he
delivered over the course of 2010 to take a look at the state of the
world economy, post-GFC.
Losing Turkey? Why Turkey's Foreign Policy is Changing and What It Means
for the West, November 2010
Gwenyth Todd
Against the background of increasingly strained relations between Turkey
and the West, a new Lowy Institute Perspective examines the reasons for
the recent, dramatic shifts in Turkey’s foreign policy. 'Losing Turkey?
Why Turkey’s Foreign Policy is Changing and What it Means for the West'
by Gwenyth Todd looks at a range of factors behind these shifts, from
the growing assertiveness of Turkey’s AKP government to growing popular
exasperation in Turkey at the country’s exclusion from the EU.
Gwenyth Todd is an international security consultant with extensive
experience in Turkey, the Middle East and South America. Previously she
worked at the Pentagon, advising Secretaries of Defense under George H.W.
Bush and Bill Clinton on defence matters involving Iraq, Kuwait, Turkey,
Cyprus and South America. She also worked at National Security Council
under President Clinton, where she served as Director for Turkey, Iraq,
Iran and Libya.
Australia and Japan: Ambivalent Asians, Ambitious Regionalists, October
2010
Dr Michael Wesley
Lowy Institute Executive Director Michael
Wesley delivered a speech at the Australia-Japan Joint Business
Conference in Brisbane on 11 October 2010. This Perspective is based on
his speech, entitled 'Australia and Japan: ambivalent Asians, ambitious
regionalists'.
Terror Games: Understanding Security and Risk in New Delhi, October 2010
Rory Medcalf
In this Lowy Institute Perspective,
International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf examines the risks
and background of possible terrorism at the October 2010 Commonwealth
Games in New Delhi.
The Return of Geo-economics: Globalisation and National Security,
September 2010
Mark Thirlwell
There is a growing tendency for governments
to view issues of international economics through the prisms of national
security and foreign policy. The GFC was seen not just as an economic
catastrophe, but as a security challenge. Other examples of a tendency
to mingle economics and geo-politics include policy debates over: the
implications of the economic rise of China; Beijing’s exchange rate
policy; the rise of state capitalism in general, and of inward
investment by SWFs and state owned enterprises in particular; and the
growing focus on resource security. In a new Lowy Institute
Perspectives, Mark Thirlwell asks whether this heralds the return of
geo-economics.
Our Consensus Future: The Lay of the Land in 2025, September 2010
Mark Thirlwell
The global financial crisis is a powerful
reminder of how bad we are at forecasting. Yet despite the scale of this
recent shock, we continue to have a fairly strong consensus view of
where the world economy is likely to head over the next couple of
decades. Indeed, this consensus forecast has survived the GFC largely
unscathed. In a new Perspectives based on a presentation to the
Australian Economic Forum on 6 August 2010, Mark Thirlwell describes
this consensus future and some of the risks associated with it.
How do we know when we are at war? August 2010
Peter Leahy
In this Lowy Institute perspective, former
Australian Chief of Army Peter Leahy argues that Australia needs greater
civilian engagement if it is to have a chance of prevailing in
counter-insurgency warfare. His recommendations include parliamentary
ratification of military deployments and a reset of military-media
relations, including the appointment of an ombudsman to improve
responsible media access to operational information.
Global Encounters: Outcomes Report, August 2010
On Friday, 25 June 2010, the Lowy Institute
held its seventh annual New Voices conference, bringing together
Australia’s leading international relations and development studies
students for a discussion with practitioners working in the field. The
outcomes report can be downloaded here.
Australia and India: How to Advance, May 2010
Rory Medcalf
In this new Lowy Institute Perspective, Lowy
Institute Program Director Rory Medcalf argues that a mix of flawed
policy and flawed perception is holding back a truly strategic
partnership between Australia and India.
This text is based on a speech delivered by Mr Medcalf at the Advance
Global Australians Emerging Leaders' Conference in New Delhi on 4 May
2010.
Why Neoconservatism Still Matters, April 2010
Justin Vaïsse
In this paper, Justin Vaïsse argues that
neoconservatism remains an important school of thought in American
foreign policy debates, and predicts that neoconservatives will play a
meaningful role in shaping U.S. foreign policy in the future. After
offering a definition of this complex movement, and shedding light on
its complex history, he describes the reasons for neoconservative
resilience after the Iraq war. Because of their institutional,
intellectual and political dynamism, the neocons will remain an
influential force in American foreign policy for years to come.
The 'New Middle East' and Why it Matters to Australia, April 2010
Anthony Bubalo
In a new Lowy Institute Perspective, West
Asia Program Director Anthony Bubalo explores two major changes that are
creating a new Middle East: the end of American hegemony; and the
economic and strategic reconnection of the Middle East to Asia. Bubalo
explores some of the implications of this shift for Australian
international policy, against the background of continuing community
ambivalence toward the Middle East and to those issues that are part of
the Middle East security equation, most notably, Afghanistan.
'
The vital place of nuclear weapons in 21st century US national security
strategy, December 2009
Franklin C. Miller
Kevin Rudd launched the report of the
International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament in
Tokyo on 15 December. In this publication Franklin C. Miller, a former
senior US government official with extensive involvement in nuclear
policy making over five Administrations, makes the case for the United
States maintaining a strong, safe and credible nuclear deterrent in the
21st century..
Toward a nuclear weapons free world: a Chinese perspective, November
2009
Professor Dingli Shen
In this publication, leading Chinese
security scholar Shen Dingli offers a point of view on Beijing’s
constraints and objectives as it decides how to engage with the new
global push for nuclear disarmament, including such initiatives as
President Obama’s nuclear-weapon-free-world campaign and the
Australian-Japanese International Commission for Nuclear
Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, due to report at the end of 2009.
The Lowy Institute has issued this perspective to expand the range of
views published under its partnership with the Nuclear Security Project
(www.nuclearsecurityproject.org).
The Gulf States and Iran: Robust Competitors or Interested Bystanders?
November 2009
Dr Rodger Shanahan
In a new Lowy Institute Perspectives, Rodger
Shanahan, non-resident fellow in the West Asia Program, examines
relations between the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
and Iran. 'The Gulf states and Iran: robust competitors or interested
bystanders' discusses how a complex mix of insecurity, economic
interests, cultural ties and shared geography shape Gulf attitudes
toward their large neighbour. This paper also examines the dilemmas
facing Gulf states as they seek to balance conciliatory and
confrontational approaches to Iran, particularly over the nuclear issue.
After the Perfect Storm: Indian Students in Australia, October 2009
Janaki Bahadur
In this Lowy Institute Perspective, Janaki
Bahadur draws upon her experience as an Indian-born journalist living in
Australia to look below the surface of this year’s controversy about the
welfare of Indian students in Australia. She identifies the commercial
and nationalistic drivers of the sensationalised Indian media coverage,
while also observing that the intense media attention exposed genuine
problems, not so much about racism as about the quality of vocational
education on offer and the motives of Indian vocational students in
Australia. She concludes that the storm may ultimately lead to more
sustainable education and immigration policies along with improved
Australia-India ties.
The Case for Australia's UN Security Council Bid, September 2009
Dr Michael Fullilove
In this new Perspective, Dr Michael
Fullilove makes the case that Australia’s bid for the Security Council
is both prudent and popular, and refutes the various arguments that have
been made against the bid.
The Pacific Islands and the World: The Global Financial Crisis, August
2009
Jenny Hayward-Jones
The Lowy Institute's conference, The Pacific
Islands and the World: The Global Economic Crisis, held in Brisbane on 2
and 3 August, brought together Pacific Island leaders, ministers,
officials from international and regional organisations, private sector
and civil society representatives, in advance of the annual Pacific
Islands Forum leaders meeting.
The Pacific Islands region as a whole has weathered the global economic
crisis better than many other developing countries to date but the
impact of the global recession is still significant.
The conference recommended that the Pacific Island governments should
seize the opportunity of the global economic crisis to make fundamental
reforms to the way they manage their development planning and do
business.
The report of the conference has been published in this Lowy Institute
Perspective.
Barack Obama, Kevin Rudd and the Alliance: American and Australian
Perspectives, August 2009
Dr Michael Fullilove Dr Michael O'Hanlon
A good deal of copy has been written about
the Australia-US alliance over the past decade, but almost all of it,
naturally enough, described the alliance as it developed under the
stewardship of conservative leaders in Washington and Canberra. Now the
alliance is in the hands of a Democratic president and a Labor prime
minister. This new Lowy Institute Perspective sets out the views of two
analysts, one American, Michael O'Hanlon, and one Australian, Michael
Fullilove, on the developing relationship between President Barack Obama
and Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and the kind of alliance over which they
will preside.
A New Climate Strategy Beyond 2012: Lessons From Monetary History,
August 2009
Professor Warwick McKibbin
A new climate strategy beyond 2012: lessons
from monetary history
In this Perspective, based on the 2007 Shann Memorial Lecture, Professor
Warwick McKibbin outlines the key features that are needed in a new
climate change framework beyond Kyoto, drawing on lessons from monetary
history. Using the analogy of the way modern central banks run monetary
policy, it outlines an alternative to the Kyoto protocol which is a
system of national climate policies coordinated around a common global
price for carbon.
Outcomes Report: 'New Voices 2009' Networked, July 2009
On Thursday 11 June 2009, the Lowy Institute
held its sixth annual New Voices conference for early and mid-career
professionals, which this year discussed networks. The outcomes report
can be downloaded here.
Australasian Anxieties: How Winston Churchill Shaped Australia's
Relations with Britain, Japan and the United States For Six Decades,
July 2009
Graham Freudenberg AM
In a new Lowy Institute Perspective, author
and political adviser Graham Freudenberg offers a view on Winston
Churchill's impact on Australia's foreign policies.
Australia's International Future, July 2009
Dr Michael Wesley
In a new Lowy Institute Perspective, Michael
Wesley, the Executive Director of the Lowy Institute, addresses the
challenges ahead for Australia and the Lowy Institute. The world after
the Global Financial Crisis will be a world which asks some very
searching questions of Australia’s foreign policy makers,
businesspeople, and citizens. How should Australia respond to the new
position of China as a key power determining the future of collective
global issues? What are the challenges to Australia’s economy as posed
by an increasingly knowledge-intensive and Asia-centric global economy?
How will Australian society adjust to new concepts of risk and new
sensitivities to systemic instability? Michael Wesley addresses these
and other issues, and in doing so, outlines his vision for the Lowy
Institute over the next five years.
Going Global - Japanese version, April 2009
Dr Malcolm Cook , Andrew Shearer
In 'Going global: a new Australia-Japan
agenda for multilateral cooperation', a Lowy Institute report released
on 30 April 2009, supported by the Australia-Japan Foundation, Andrew
Shearer and Malcolm Cook proposed a new agenda for multilateral
cooperation between Australia and Japan.
That report is now available for download here in Japanese.
Tackling Extreme Poverty in Papua New Guinea, May 2009
Stephanie Copus-Campbell Jenny Hayward-Jones
The Lowy Institute and CARE Australia
convened a conference in Sydney on 14 May 2009 on tackling extreme
poverty in Papua New Guinea. The conference brought together
politicians, government officials, academics, private sector and
non-government experts to explore ways of improving the situation of
about one million people living in extreme poverty in Australia’s
nearest neighbour. Papua New Guinea’s most disadvantaged communities,
who live around the fringes of the highlands and in inland, lowland
areas, suffer from very low cash income, limited access to education and
health services, poor transport and communications infrastructure, low
life expectancy and high child and maternal mortality.
The report of the conference with recommendations for more cooperation
between government, NGOs and the private sector to improve the lives of
the most disadvantaged communities in Papua New Guinea has been
published in this Lowy Institute Perspective.
International Imbalances and International Policy Coordination, May 2009
Dr Stephen Grenville AO
In a new Lowy Institute Perspective, Dr
Stephen Grenville looks at the role of external imbalances and
international capital flows in the global financial crisis. He argues
that whether or not these imbalances were a major factor in explaining
the current crisis, capital flows have often enough been associated with
previous crises to demonstrate the need to put in place better financial
infrastructure to link countries with surplus savings with the countries
that have the best opportunities to use these savings. Dr Grenville
suggests that this would be an appropriate challenge for the G-20
Leaders.
Going Global: A New Australia-Japan Agenda for Multilateral Cooperation,
April 2009
Dr Malcolm Cook and Andrew Shearer
In new Lowy Institute report, supported by
the Australia-Japan Foundation, Andrew Shearer and Malcolm Cook propose
a new agenda for multilateral cooperation between Australia and Japan.
The growing international weight of Asia and the forces of globalisation
are expanding the number of issues states must manage and respond to in
new ways. Yet, the traditional multilateral organisations are under
growing strain and have proven largely ineffective.
Japan and Australia, as long-standing supporters of an effective
multilateral world and complementary powers in Asia, are well placed to
cooperate more intensely on a range of multilateral issues and through
new groupings like the G-20 and Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean
Development and Climate. Australia-Japan cooperation in Iraq from 2004
to 2006 and the International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation
and Disarmaments are good building blocks. Much more should be done.
The Long Rise of China in Australian Defence Strategy, April 2009
Richard C. Smith AO PSM
Media reports and Hugh White's recent Lowy
Institute Paper have ignited debate about the extent to which China's
rapid military modernisation should shape the government's long-awaited
Defence White Paper.
In this Perspective, former Secretary of Defence Ric Smith charts the
place of China in Australian defence strategy over 50 years and
highlights that a preoccupation with China's military capabilities and
intentions is far from new for Australia's defence planners.
Nuclear Disarmament: The Need for a New Theory, March 2009
Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman
In this Lowy Institute Perspective,
Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman examines what a realistic assessment of
the developing state of the international system might mean for current
efforts to reduce nuclear dangers and pursue the abolition of nuclear
weapons. This publication is based on a lecture Professor Freedman
presented at the Lowy Institute in February 2009, under the Lowy
Institute's partnership with the Nuclear Security Project of the Nuclear
Threat Initiative (www.nuclearsecurityproject.org).
Australia and Indonesia: Partners in a New Era, March 2009
Dr Malcolm Cook
Last month, the Australian government, in
cooperation with the Lowy Institute, held a major conference in Sydney
on the future of Australia-Indonesia relations. The conference drew to
Australia one of the largest and most senior delegations ever from
Indonesia. Discussion and debate over the two days focussed on the
growing depth of contacts between Jakarta and Canberra over the last
decade and the growing gap between government-to-government links and
broader people-to-people links and popular opinion. For more information
about the conference, please see the Outcomes Report prepared by Malcolm
Cook.
Towards the London Summit: Next Steps for the G-20, March 2009
Mark Thirlwell
On 5 March 2009, the Lowy Institute hosted a
roundtable discussion in the run-up to the G-20 meeting of world leaders
that will be held in London on 2 April this year. The roundtable was
supported by the British High Commission in Canberra and was part of the
British Government's efforts to reach out to the wider community for
ideas before this critical summit meeting. The discussion brought
together a small group of informed Australians from outside government
to give their views. The roundtable was held under the Chatham House
Rule, but the Institute has produced an outcomes report, summarising the
discussion. The outcomes report is available here.
All change or plus ça change: The global financial crisis and four key
drivers of the world economy, February 2009
Mark Thirlwell
It's now common to hear the claim that the
global financial crisis will fundamentally change the world economy. In
a new paper in the Lowy Institute's Perspectives series, Mark Thirlwell
asks whether the changing facts about the world economy - plummeting
growth, soaring risk aversion, collapsing commodity prices, and a
massive expansion in the role of government – are so significant that we
have to change our minds about the fundamental ways in which the world
now works.
Obama's Inaugural Address and U.S. Foreign Policy: Lessons from History,
January 2009
Dr Michael Fullilove
In this Perspective, Dr Michael Fullilove,
who is currently based at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC,
looks ahead to President-elect Barack Obama's inaugural address on 20
January. Obama is an unusually gifted writer and speaker with an
old-fashioned attachment to speeches, who will likely address his vision
for US foreign policy in his address. Dr Fullilove distills three
lessons on the relationship between presidential language and foreign
policy: foreign policy speeches should be well written but not
overwritten; foreign policy rhetoric should be firmly tethered to
foreign policy reality; and multiple and diverse audiences need to be
addressed.
A Non-provocative Defence Posture for Australia, December 2008
Sam Roggeveen
In a new Lowy Institute Perspective, Sam
Roggeveen makes the case for a non-provocative defence policy for
Australia. We can ameliorate the security dilemma for our neighbours and
reduce the likelihood of arms racing by giving up some of our offensive
military capabilities.
Engineering Political Stability in Solomon Islands, October 2008
Jenny Hayward-Jones
The Lowy Institute and the Solomon Islands
Working Committee on Political Party Integrity Reform held a conference
in Honiara on 24 and 25 September 2008 to explore the potential for
reforms to engineer greater political stability in Solomon Islands. The
conference sought to identify mechanisms to address the endemic problems
that have plagued the sustainable development and prosperity of Solomon
Islands, including disparities between the demands of the Westminster
system and society's expectations of members of parliament, weak
political parties, flaws in the electoral system, frivolous use of
motions of no confidence and corrupt practices.
The report of the conference and options for reform proposed by
participants have been published in this Lowy Institute Perspective.
Asian Military Modernisation, October 2008
Richard C. Smith AO PSM
In this Lowy Institute Perspective, Visiting
Fellow Ric Smith examines the patterns in Asian military spending in
recent years. He demonstrates that the region's military modernisation
does not equate with an arms race. This publication was originally a
presentation delivered to the International Institute of Strategic
Studies' 50th Anniversary Global Strategic Review in Geneva in early
September 2008.
The Changing Global Financial Environment: Implications for Foreign
Investment in Australia and China, July 2008
Dr Malcolm Cook and Mark Thirlwell
A surge in Chinese investment into
Australia's resource sector has been making headlines in recent weeks.
On 4 July, in conjunction with the Australia China Business Council and
Monash University, the Lowy Institute participated in a forum on The
Changing Global Financial Environment: Implications for Foreign
Investment in Australia and China. The forum, which was also addressed
by the Federal Treasurer, the Hon Wayne Swann MP, covered several
topical policy issues including the evolving international financial
environment; the rise of sovereign wealth funds and state-owned
enterprise foreign investment; foreign investment in the Australian
resource sector during the current resources boom; and growing Chinese
outward investment and the Australia-China relationship. For more
information about the conference, please see the Outcomes Report.
Hizbullah: Walking the Lebanese Tightrope, July 2008
Colonel Rodger Shanahan
Hizbullah’s month-long war with Israel in
2006, its withdrawal from and effective blocking of the Lebanese
government later that year, and its May 2008 armed takeover of West
Beirut has shown how politically and militarily powerful this group is.
As a consequence it is often held up as the exemplar of radical Islamist
organisations. Despite this, some recent miscalculations have shown that
even Hizbullah can be vulnerable politically. In this new Lowy Institute
Perspectives paper, Chief of Army Visiting Fellow Rodger Shanahan argues
that despite its recent successes, like all political parties it faces
challenges in the future. Its ability to face these challenges will
determine its future viability, but at the moment they are likely to
remain a strong force.
New Governments, New Beginnings: An Outlook On Korea-Australia
Relations, June 2008
Dr Malcolm Cook
On 20 June, the Lowy Institute hosted a
conference on the future of relations between Australia and South Korea
under the new Rudd and Lee Myung-bak administrations with the support
for the Australia-Korea Foundation. Both countries are self-identified
middle powers allied to the United States and are involved as the
weakest member in “strategic squares” with the United States, Japan and
China. The conference focused on new areas of cooperation in trade,
official development aid and multiculturalism, coordinating our
respective alliance relationship with the United States in East Asia and
beyond, and pushing for the expansion of the G-8. For more information
on the conference, please read the outcomes report.
Labour
Mobility: An Australian Seasonal Work Visa Scheme For Pacific Islands
Labour, June 2008
Jenny Hayward-Jones
On 12-13 June 2008, the Lowy Institute
hosted a conference to examine the questions associated with the
possible introduction of a seasonal work visa scheme for Pacific
Islanders in the Australian horticulture sector. The conference focused
on the horticultural industry’s requirements for a stable and reliable
workforce, the strong interest and capacity of Pacific Island countries
suffering from high unemployment to take up seasonal employment in
Australia, the importance of appropriate design of pilot programs and
the likelihood that the benefits of establishing a seasonal labour
scheme for Pacific Islanders would outweigh the social and economic
costs of administering a scheme. For more information on this
conference, please read the outcomes report.
Think Tanks and Foreign Policy, May 2008
Allan Gyngell
On the occasion of the fifth anniversary of
the founding of the Lowy Institute for International Policy, Executive
Director Allan Gyngell writes, in a paper in the Institute's
Perspectives series, on the role of think tanks in shaping Australian
foreign policy and in strengthening Australia's voice in the world.
The New Defence White Paper: Why We Need It and What It Needs to Do,
April 2008
Professor Hugh White
In this Lowy Institute Perspective, Visiting
Fellow Hugh White examines why Australia needs a new defence white
paper, outlines the proper aims of such a project and identifies the
pitfalls that need to be avoided.
He draws upon his experience in managing the development and drafting of
Australia's 2000 defence white paper, arguing against any process which
does not align strategic objectives, military capability plans and
projected budgetary realities.
Liquid Terror: The Dynamics of Homegrown Radicalisation, December 2007
Waleed Aly
In a new Lowy Institute Perspectives, Waleed
Aly explores the connection between international policy and domestic
radicalisation.
A presentation to the Lowy Institute by Waleed Aly on this topic is
available at:
http://www.lowyinstitute.org/Publication.asp?pid=676.
Crunched: Lessons from the 2007 TLA Crisis, November 2007
Mark Thirlwell
In a new Lowy Instsitute Perspectives, Mark
Thirlwell looks at the current turmoil in international financial
markets. While this is often named after the US subprime sector in which
it originated, he suggests that an alternative description could be the
TLA crisis, given the profusion of three letter acronyms such as MBS,
CDO and SIV deployed in any analysis of developments. Mark argues that
recent events tell us something important about the current financial
system and its vulnerability to crisis, and provide some significant
lessons for regulators and central banks.
Institutionalising Interests: Japan-Australia Relations in the 21st
Century, November 2007
Dr Malcolm Cook
On 12 October, the Lowy Institute hosted a
conference, featuring six Japanese speakers, on the future of
Australia-Japan relations, on the back of the joint declaration on
security cooperation and the commencement of free trade deal talks.
Japan has been Australia's closest regional diplomatic ally and major
export market for decades. The Institute received generous support for
the conference from the Australia-Japan Foundation and the Japanese
Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Sydney. For more information on the
content of the conference, please read the outcomes report.
Africa's Trajectory: Through the Long Lens, October 2007
Philip Green OAM
The Lowy Institute is pleased to announce
the launch of a 'Perspectives on Africa' page on its website under
Programs & Projects. Reflecting both growing interest in Africa and a
desire to present more nuanced portrayals of the African continent, the
page will provided a regularly updated site for analyses, opinion pieces
and speeches by scholars of and visitors to the Lowy Institute.
The Lowy Institute is launching its 'Perspectives on Africa' page with
an analysis by Australian diplomat Philip Green on Africa's changing
prospects. Green critically examines the commonplace perception of
Africa as a continent of little more than war, famine and plague and
identifies a number of positive trends in Africa's development going
forward.
The Khmer Rouge Tribunal: An Ambiguous Good News Story, August 2007
Dr Milton Osborne
In a new Lowy Institute Perspectives, Milton
Osborne reviews the ambiguous history of the Khmer Rouge Tribunal and
analyses its prospects and limitations.
He argues that the Cambodian government has been hesitant to see the
tribunal come into being, a position shared by China, and that it will
only prosecute a small number of those associated with the tyrannical
Pol Pot regime. Even so, it will play some part in assuaging Cambodia's
national pain.
Milton Osborne, a Visiting Fellow at the Lowy Institute and an Adjunct
Professor in the Faculty of Asian Studies at the Australian National
University, is one of Australia's best-known Cambodia experts.
Still Looking to America: Labor and the US Alliance, August 2007
Dr Michael Fullilove
On 9 August 2007, Dr Michael Fullilove
delivered the John Curtin Prime Ministerial Library Visiting Scholar’s
Public Lecture for 2007 at Curtin University. The lecture, entitled
'Still looking to America: Labor and the US alliance', is available here
in the Lowy Institute's Perspectives series.
Building on Strong Foundations: The Future of the China-Australia
Relationship, July 2007
Dr Malcolm Cook
On 17-18 May, the Lowy Institute co-hosted a
conference on the future of China-Australia relations with the Chinese
People's Institute of Foreign Affairs and the Tianda Institute. The
conference focused on the growing national and regional importance of
this bilateral relationship based on economic complementarity but
political and strategic differences. For more information on this
conference, please read the outcomes report.
The Bangkok Challenge: From Conflict to Cooperation and Beyond, Outcomes
Report, June 2007
Dr Malcolm Cook
On 15 May, the Lowy Institute co-hosted with
the George Institute for International Health a seminar on Thailand's
recent decision to issue a compulsory licence for a patented heart drug.
This decision has reignited the debate over the patent rights of
innovating pharmaceutical companies and the growing public health care
demands of poorer countries. It was the first time a developing country
had used the WTO rules on compulsory licensing outside of the HIV/AIDS
area. For more information on the seminar, please read the outcomes
report.
Australia and New Zealand in a Globalising World, May 2007
Allan Gyngell , Dr David Skilling , Mark Thirlwell
The fourth annual Australia-New Zealand
Leadership Forum was held in Sydney on 22 and 23 April this year. The
Lowy Institute's Executive Director, Allan Gyngell, and the Director of
the International Economy program, Mark Thirlwell, together with the
founding Chief Executive of the New Zealand Institute, David Skilling,
spoke to the forum on the challenges posed to both economies by
globalisation's successes and its failures. Their presentation is now
available as part of the Lowy Institute's Perspectives series.
The Water Politics of China and Southeast Asia II: Rivers, Dams, Cargo
Boats and the Environment, May 2007
Dr Milton Osborne In a new Lowy
Institute Perspectives, Milton Osborne, a visiting fellow at the
Institute, evaluates the social and economic impacts for the littoral
states of the damming of the Salween River and the opening of the Mekong
River to large cargo boats. Both of these processes are being driven by
China's rapid economic growth and are integrating China more closely
with continental Southeast Asia. Yet, as Milton's earlier work for the
Institute on the Mekong emphasises, not all is smooth sailing and the
regional politics of water management are bound to become more
contentious.
Dealing with a Democratic Indonesia: The Yudhoyono Years, March 2007
Ken Ward In a new Lowy Institute
Perspective entitled Dealing with a democratic Indonesia: the Yudhoyono
Years, Ken Ward analyses how democratisation is changing Indonesia's
political system, what challenges are facing democratic consolidation
and how Canberra should respond. Ken is one of Australia's best
Indonesia analysts and has observed the country for over forty years,
both from inside and outside government.
International Liquidity, March 2007
Dr Stephen Grenville AO In this new
paper in the Perspectives series, Visiting Fellow Stephen Grenville
argues that the term 'liquidity' has too many meanings for it to be
analytically useful.
From National to International Climate Change Policy, March 2007
Professor Warwick McKibbin In
the Sir Leslie Melville Lecture entitled 'From National to International
Climate Change Policy', Professor Warwick McKibbin argues that major
countries must respond to the issue of climate change, taking into
account the enormous uncertainties that are involved. He discusses the
key features of the climate change policy problem and outlines what is
required in a policy framework that would allow an effective but
flexible response to curbing greenhouse gas emissions both nationally
and globally.
He also addresses the issue of whether there is an economic case for
Australia to lead the world in the design and implementation of a
market-based approach before a global system is implemented. It is
argued that starting with a series of national systems which are
coordinated across countries to create a global system is the only
sensible way forward on climate change policy.
Advancing the National Interest in a Globalising World: Australia's
International Policy in the 21st Century, February 2007
Dr Nick Bisley In December 2006,
the Lowy Institute for International Policy hosted a seminar on
'Australia and World'. The seminar built on the contemporaneous launch
of three Lowy Papers on the Australian economy, foreign and defence
policy. Leading scholars, commentators and practitioners were asked to
talk about the major international trends likely to shape Australian
interests over the coming years, and what policy settings would be
required to deal with them.
Attached is a Lowy Institute Perspective by Dr Nick Bisley, who was the
rapporteur at the seminar. This Perspective is not a summary of the
proceedings but the response of one participant to the debate and
discussion.
Globalisation and Capital Flows: Unfinished Business in The
International Financial Architecture, February 2006
Dr Stephen Grenville AO In this
Lowy Institute Perspective, Stephen Grenville argues that volatile
international capital flows are once again becoming a problem for
emerging market economies.
These countries would be in a stronger position to manage these flows if
the “international financial architecture” – the rules, procedures and
understandings that surround international financial flows – were
strengthened to endorse Chilean-style short-term capital inflow
controls, and to improve the international crisis management measures.
After Iraq, December 2006
Owen Harries In this new
Perspective, Owen Harries, one of Australia's leading commentators and a
Visiting Fellow at the Lowy Institute, writes on US and Australian
foreign policy 'After Iraq'.
In the last three and a half years, 'Iraq' has come to stand for many
things beyond a geographical location and a state: a political and moral
commitment; the first testing of a new and hugely ambitious strategic
doctrine; a bloody, many-sided conflict involving terrible atrocities;
examples of hubris and incompetence; a bitter debate and some startling
second thoughts. Now, as it appears increasingly as if the whole episode
may be approaching its end, Owen Harries discusses its consequences and
the lessons it might turn out to hold: for the United States, who
initiated it all; for Australia, who has given its ally undeviating
support; and for the international system as a whole.
This Perspective is adapted from a speech Mr Harries gave at the Lowy
Institute on 29 November.
Macroeconomic Policy Challenges for New Zealand: Monetary Policy,
November 2006
Dr Stephen Grenville AO New Zealand
is a small open economy in a globalised world. The close linkages with
international financial markets present challenges for domestic
stabilisation policy, which are explored in this paper in the Lowy
Institute Perspectives series. There may be lessons, too, for Australia
as financial markets become increasingly integrated internationally.
These issues raise, once again, the desirability of even closer economic
linkages across the Tasman.
Regional and Global Responses to the Asian Crisis, October 2006
Dr Stephen Grenville AO In
this Lowy Institute Perspective, Dr Stephen Grenville asks how economic
policymaking changed as a result of the Asian crisis of 1997-8, in the
countries affected, in the region, and at the global level. It is
perhaps surprising how little change has occurred in the broad approach
to economic policy, but there is a much greater awareness of the
vulnerabilities posed by large international capital flows. The broad
tenets of the Washington Consensus, with its market-based policies,
remain in place, but there is a recognition that well-functioning
markets require complex institutions, rules and procedures, and that
these take time and effort to develop. Most of this institutional
development will have to take place at the national level, but regional
arrangements can offer support, and multilateral agencies (such as the
International Monetary Fund) have learned from the crisis.
Australians and Indonesians: The Lowy Institute Poll 2006, October 2006
Professor Murray Goot In
this Lowy Institute Perspective, Murray Goot, Professor of Politics and
International Relations at Macquarie University, compares Australian and
Indonesian public opinion on foreign policy, global affairs, and each
other, using the results of the Lowy Institute Poll 2006.
Balancing Australia's Security Interests, September 2006
Allan Gyngell Lowy
Institute Executive Director Allan Gyngell delivered a speech to the
Global Forces 2006 Conference at the Australian Strategic Policy
Institute on 27 September 2006.
Is a "New Middle East" possible? August 2006
Ambassador Martin Indyk A
new Lowy Institute Perspective by Ambassador Martin Indyk asks the
question 'Is a "New Middle East" possible? This Perspective is based on
a recent speech by Ambassador Indyk, a Lowy Institute board member, at
the Conservatorium of Music in Sydney.
Australia-Indonesia Roundtable on the future of Australia-Indonesia,
August 2006
Dr Malcolm Cook On 4 July,
the Lowy Institute organised an expert roundtable on the future of
Australia-Indonesia relations. The half-day event focused on three
foundational political and social changes sweeping Indonesia –
democratisation, decentralisation and Islamisation – and how these are
affecting its political system, government and international policy.
Democratisation and decentralisation together are vastly increasing the
number of influential voices in Indonesia, both within the formal
political system and in the wider community. Australian understanding of
Indonesia needs to take these significant and ongoing changes into full
consideration or risk having an incomplete and out-dated view of our
closest Asian neighbour.
Milton and the Terrorist Mind, June 2006
Simon Haines In an address to
the Lowy Institute on 7 July 2006, Dr Simon Haines showed how great
works of literature can throw light on contemporary problems.
He used the example of Milton’s portrayal of Satan in Paradise Lost to
examine an extremist, terrorist pathology of an ideological or
fundamentalist kind, and thereby opened a window on to the terrorist
impulse that is concerned less with global politics than the human
condition.
Dr Simon Haines is Reader in English and Head of the School of
Humanities at the Australian National University.
In Praise of Hypocrisy: The Role of "Values" in Foreign Policy, May 2006
James Fallows A new Lowy
Institute Perspective authored by the eminent American journalist James
Fallows and entitled In Praise of Hypocrisy: The Role of ‘Values’ in
Foreign Policy has been released.
Mr Fallows’s essay is adapted from a speech he delivered to the Lowy
Institute’s recent conference on ‘Values and Foreign Policy’. He argues
that for countries such as the US and Australia the inclusion of values
in national foreign policy is unavoidable – and that the surest way of
advancing the nation’s values is to recognize how little one nation can
actually do.
James Fallows is one of the United States’s leading journalists and
authors. He is National Correspondent at The Atlantic Monthly, where he
has worked for more than two decades. His article about the likely
consequences of victory in Iraq, ‘The Fifty First State?’, won the 2003
National Magazine Award.
The people have spoken: elections and the future of Israeli-Palestinian
peacemaking, April 2006
Anthony Bubalo In this new
Lowy Institute Perspective, Research Fellow Anthony Bubalo examines the
results of recent Palestinian and Israeli elections and their
implications for Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking.
The Trouble with Trade: the International Trading System after Hong
Kong, March 2006
Mark Thirlwell
In December last year, Hong Kong hosted
the sixth World Trade Organization (WTO) ministerial meeting. In this
paper in the Institute’s Perspectives series Mark Thirlwell, director of
the international economy program, asks why it proved so difficult to
secure a substantive agreement at Hong Kong, and discusses what this
tells us about the health of the international trading system.
Given what appears to be a declining appetite for multilateral
liberalisation, the odds on a successful conclusion to the Doha Round
within the currently envisioned timetable have again worsened. As a
result, it seems likely that the action on trade liberalisation, such as
it is, will remain at the bilateral and regional level. Since such
agreements have several problematic features, past and future trade
deals based on this template should be subjected to rigorous and
independent review in order to minimise the risks associated with a
trade strategy based around preferential trade.
Japan: Ripe for Re-assessment, February 2006
Dr Malcolm Cook and Huw McKay
In this new Perspectives, Malcolm Cook, Program Director
Asia & the Pacific at the Lowy Institute, and Huw McKay, Senior
International Economist at Westpac, argue that the conventional wisdom
on Japan is outdated. Japan is experiencing three powerful
transformations that are well entrenched and explain Japan’s revived
economy, more assertive political leaders, and tougher international
policy.
Japanese corporate balance sheets have recovered boosting asset prices
and credit demand. Political reforms have empowered individual political
leaders and permitted Prime Minister Koizumi to be the most influential
Japanese leader for decades. Japan’s international policy has responded
by focusing more directly on the national interest and perceived threats
to it. The new Japan creates new opportunities and challenges for
Australia in the Asia Pacific. Ignoring these transformations risks
missing the new opportunities and being surprised by the new challenges.
Japan's 'New Internationalism', December 2005
Dr Malcolm Cook
Dr Malcolm Cook spoke at the Australia-Japan Roundtable
on 25 November. His response to a presentation by the new Japanese
Consul-General looked at the domestic and regional causes of recent
changes to Japanese foreign policy.
Shaking the World? China and the World Economy, August
2005
Mark Thirlwell
A favourite cliché of China watchers has been the
Napoleonic aphorism: 'Let China sleep; when she wakes, she will shake
the world.' In this paper in the Lowy Institute’s Perspectives series,
Mark Thirlwell asks whether a resurgent China is 'shaking' the world
economy and reshaping our international economic environment. This paper
was originally delivered to a conference on 'The Chinese economy –
impact on Korea and Australia' held at the Lowy Institute on 5 August
2005.
The Pacific: Beyond Post-colonialism and the Pacific
Way, a New Era? May 2005
Dr Malcolm Cook
On 13 May 2005, the Lowy Institute, with the support of
the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, hosted a roundtable that
brought together Australia’s Pacific Heads of Mission and
representatives from the business community, not-for-profit sector,
academia and media. After discussing the new assertiveness in
Australia-Pacific relations, the discussion focused on three firm policy
recommendations for the Pacific and for Australia-Pacific relations: 1)
increase labour mobility between Pacific countries and Australia and New
Zealand; 2) enhance the understanding of the role of the private sector
in economic development in the Pacific; and 3) encourage Pacific states
to adopt a “look North” policy to leverage East Asia’s economic dynamism
and balance their strong ties with Australia and New Zealand.
New Voices 2005, Binding the
World Together, June 2005
Dr Malcolm Cook
On 10 June 2005, the Lowy Institute hosted its second
annual New Voices conference. The New Voices initiative is part of the
Institute’s outreach efforts and serves three main goals: 1) to
introduce the Institute and some of the bigger questions it grapples
with to a new audience; 2) to provide engaged early-career people from a
variety of backgrounds with a platform to express their insights and
ideas on important issues of international policy; and 3) to facilitate
professional cross-pollination and relationship-building.
China and the International Economy, May 2005
Mark Thirlwell
Mark Thirlwell took part in a panel discussion on 18
March marking the launch of the CEDA research report, China in
Australia's Future. Mark also contributed the overview chapter, a copy
of which is available from the CEDA web site (www.ceda.com.au) along
with information about the full report. A copy of Mark's paper is also
available as part of the Lowy Institute's Perspectives series.
Grand Strategy, National Security and the Australian
Defence Force, May 2005
Dr Alan Dupont
In this paper in the Perspectives series, Dr Alan Dupont
argues that Australia needs an overarching national security strategy to
deal with the very different security challenges of the 21st century.
Without one, Australia will be condemned to repeat the mistakes of the
past where policy is made on the run, there is no benchmark for matching
ends with means, our security concerns are too often conflated with
military threats and policy makers lack crucial coordination and
implementation tools. Moroever, there ought to be a wider and sustained
debate about Australia's future sources of power and influence and an
examination of the elements of national power, how we should wield it
and to what purpose.
Staying the Course: AusAID's Governance Performance in
Indonesia, April 2005
Geoff Forrester
The Australian government's unprecedented $1 billion
response to Indonesia's tsunami recovery more than doubled Australian
aid to Indonesia. It enhanced the role of aid in Australia-Indonesia
relations and put new strains on Australia's aid program in Indonesia.
Geoff Forrester's paper in the Perspectives series looks at the
underlying weaknesses in the governance elements of this program and
provides feasible recommendations on how to address them. Acknowledging
and addressing these institutional and policy weaknesses is a pressing
matter.
A New, New World Order? Challenges for International
Economic Policy in the New Millennium, March 2005
Mark Thirlwell
With rising levels of cross-border economic integration,
the emergence of new Asian economic powers and growing strains on the
international economic architecture the claim is sometimes made that we
are witnessing the emergence of a new international economic order. In
this paper in the Lowy Institute Perspectives series, Mark Thirlwell
asks whether these changes warrant such a description and considers some
of the challenges they might pose for international economic policy.
Getting the Job Done: Iraq and the Malayan Emergency,
February 2005
Dr Milton Osborne
Dealing with the entrenched insurgency in Iraq is the
largest task facing the new Iraqi government, Washington and its allies.
In a new Lowy Institute Perspectives, Dr. Milton Osborne, one of
Australia's leading historians of Southeast Asia, analyses what lessons
we can draw for Iraq from colonial Britain's successful
counter-insurgency campaign during the Malayan Emergency. Dr. Osborne
argues that the communist insurgency in Malaya had much shallower roots
than the Sunni-led insurgency in Iraq, while the British colonial
authorities were in a much better position to tackle the insurgency
aggressively than the new interim government in Iraq or the United
States-led multilateral forces. Despite these more favourable
conditions, the Malayan Emergency lasted for 12 years and required a
very heavy application of military and police force. The roots of
success in Malaya suggest that the Iraqi insurgency is a long-term
problem with no easy solutions.
The Outlook for the Global Economy in 2005: Dealing with
An Unbalanced World, December 2004
Mark Thirlwell
Mark Thirlwell takes a look at the outlook for the world
economy next year and highlights four downside risks to the consensus
forecast.
Parallel Worlds, September 2004
Allan Gyngell
Depending on the way we look at the world at present it
is possible to see the international system as unipolar or multipolar,
as intensely inter-connected or deeply divided. Each of these angles of
view reveals important truths about the global environment.
Allan Gyngell looks at the lessons Australia needs to learn from the
interaction of these Parallel Worlds.
New Voices 2004, A La Carte Sovereignty: Australia's
Transforming Borders, May 2004
Conference proceedings
On Friday 28 May 2004, the Lowy Institute organised the
inaugural New Voices Conference which examined the changing nature of
Australia's borders across a wide range of issues. The conference
brought together, in an informal and interactive forum, a small group of
early-career people from a wide range of relevant backgrounds.
Participants were selected from the fields of international law,
international relations, international civil society, investment
banking, the media, policy advisers and key government agencies. The
conference tackled issues ranging from global market consolidaton to the
likely impact of the International Criminal Court to Australia's
reactions to the new wave of global terrorism.
The published proceedings provide a flavour of the day's dynamic
discussions and provide unique insights into Australia from young,
knowledgeable people with few other public channels of communication.
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: Assessing Criticism of
the Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement, June
2004
Mark Thirlwell
Criticism of the Australia-US FTA has come from a wide
range of sources, running the gamut from free-trade economists through
to protectionist-minded economic nationalists. While the breadth of
views has made the discussion interesting, it has also made it
confusing.
Mark Thirlwell seeks to bring some clarity to the debate over the FTA by
providing a critical assessment of some of the key arguments,
distinguishing between those that have some merit, those that appear
somewhat dubious, and those that remain tough to evaluate.
Integration: "Think Global, Act Regional" April 2004
Dr Stephen Grenville AO
As international integration continues, the scarcity of
rules governing these cross-country relationships becomes more pressing.
The multilateral framework has gone some distance to proving
international rules, but these can be usefully supplemented both by
regional efforts to get a louder voice in international rule-making and
by regional institutions.
Within the East Asian region, efforts have been intensified since the
Asian crisis. Whatever the pace and final outcome of these efforts,
Australia ought to be part of the debate. Of course, we can only do so
by invitation, but we should demonstrate our readiness to take part, and
show our credentials as a country that can offer different and
complementary skills and attitudes.
A version of this paper will be included in a volume on Regional
Integration in the Asia Pacific, to be published jointly by the OECD,
the Hawke Centre and the Academy of Sciences at the end of 2004.
Wither the Anglosphere? April 2004
Dr Michael Fullilove
Michael Fullilove, Program Director, Global Issues,
argues that a closer association of English-speaking nations (Anglosphere)
is not a sustainable organising principle for foreign relations.
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