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June 2026 Current Topics

 

Source

 

 

 

 

South Korea’s Trust-Building with North Korea: Failure and Outlook, May 2026. This article explores South Korea’s efforts to build trust with North Korea and examines why attempts to improve inter-Korean relations have failed. The GRIT (Graduated and Reciprocated Initiatives in Tension Reduction) conflict strategy is used to explain South Korea’s approach. The assumption by previous progressive administrations that North Korea’s reciprocation depends on Seoul’s actions overlooks internal and external factors salient to Pyongyang that are the key drivers of North Korea’s decisions...

 

EWC

Chinese Illegal Fishing: Problems and Solutions. April 2026. China is not only the country that catches the most fish, but also the country whose fishing fleets are the most implicated in illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing. Moreover, the state-subsidized Chinese commercial fishing industry has built a unique infrastructure that allows Chinese fishing vessels venturing to the distant waters off Africa, Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Pacific islands to minimize the transparency of their activities. The results include depletion of foreign fishing grounds, which often causes economic hardship for the local fishing communities...

 

EWC

After Annexation: How China Plans to Run Taiwan, May 2026. Beijing’s thinking on Taiwan has shifted decisively from peaceful accommodation to absorptive control. As Taiwanese identity and democracy have become entrenched, Xi Jinping’s unification terms have hardened, demanding full political integration rather than offering genuine autonomy. Drawing on PRC academic and policy literature, this paper finds that Chinese scholars see a form of phased subjugation for the island: an immediate security crackdown neutralising political opponents; institutional restructuring beyond what has taken place in Hong Kong; and a decades-long psychological re-engineering project so Taiwanese come to identify with the CCP’s China...

 

Lowy

Low Earth Orbit Satellites: Closing the Indo-Pacific Digital Divide, May 2026. The Indo-Pacific’s digital divide is substantial but uneven. Highly connected economies, such as Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore, stand in stark contrast to the estimated 600 million people across Southeast Asia, South Asia, and the Pacific Islands region who remain offline or under-connected. Rural and remote communities have even less access than urban populations. Additional barriers, including dispersed geographies, mountainous terrain, and the cost of laying fibre-optic cables and building mobile towers, limit access in isolated communities.In each case, the challenge varies: rural usage gaps in mainland Southeast Asia and South Asia; thousands of unconnected islands in maritime Southeast Asia...

 

Lowy

Between Backyards and Nakamals: Shifting Australia–Vanuatu Relations, May 2026 . Australia’s current relations with Pacific Island countries are infused with strategic anxiety; Canberra holds genuine concerns about China’s exponential growth in bilateral security engagements and its more assertive posture in a region once carelessly described as “Australia’s backyard”. In its attempts to become the Pacific’s partner of choice, Australia has at times suffered an identity crisis and been characterised as “heavy-handed” in its engagement with the region...

 

Lowy

Mainstreamed but Sidelined: Global Funding for Gender Equality, May 2026. Gender equality is central to sustainable development and is a crucial enabler of global security, stability, and prosperity. Yet progress is stagnating or regressing across much of the developing world, especially in core areas related to basic needs, access to essential services, personal safety, and women’s rights. Meanwhile, international support is collapsing amid political opposition to gender equality initiatives and steep cuts to foreign aid by a number of donors, most notably the United States. Despite this pullback, several donor countries, including Australia and key European nations, retain strong policy commitments to supporting international gender equality...

 

Lowy

The Cost of Defence: ASPI Defence Budget Brief 2026-2027, May 2026. Australia’s 2026–27 Defence Budget commits the Commonwealth to spending approximately $181.9 million on defence every day. The headline number is sobering. The composition is more so. Australia’s strategic environment has not eased since last year’s The cost of Defence. China continues to lift its military investment at a pace few of our regional partners can match. Russia’s war in Ukraine has not ended. Conflict in the Middle East has flared and subsided and flared again. The United States continues to recalibrate the terms of its alliances. Rearmament is underway in Europe, the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific...

 

ASPI

Lethal Humidity and the Systemic Risks of Climate Change, May 2026. One of the great challenges in understanding the extraordinary consequences of global warming is our tendency to think in silos. Climate change is still often regarded as solely an environmental issue—and is generally coordinated in governments by environment ministries—rather than as a systemic crisis that affects every aspect of society. That same tendency helps to explain why the rising threat of lethal humidity, which is a combination of extreme heat and high humidity that can exceed the limits of human survival, has been overlooked until relatively recently...

 

ASPI

Hedging Our Bets: A Potential Japanese Option for Managing Risk in the AUKUS Optimal Pathway, May 2026. Australia’s ‘Optimal Pathway’ to acquiring and maintaining a nuclear-propelled, conventionally armed submarine capability from the 2030s and beyond has been agreed by all three AUKUS nations and is a matter of public record.1 This paper is supportive of pursuing that path. To be clear: AUKUS represents the best opportunity for Australia to acquire an essential strategic capability underpinning its future defence. However, the Optimal Pathway has significant cumulative risk involved...

 

ASPI

Northern Capability, National Defence: Building the North and Strengthening the Nation: Views From the Strategist, NT Defence Week 2026 Special Edition. Drawing on contributions from government, industry and academia, the compendium examines the central role of northern Australia in Australia’s defence posture – spanning force projection, logistics, fuel security, infrastructure and industrial capability – while highlighting the gap between a strategy that has shifted north and the systems needed to sustain operations at scale. It argues for treating the north as an integrated operating system capable of generating, sustaining and scaling combat power, and identifies key constraints...

 

ASPI

Sweden–Democratic People’s Republic of Korea Diplomatic Relations – A History, May 2026. Sweden is frequently referred to as the “bridge to the West” of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, commonly referred to as North Korea) due to its long-standing and reliable diplomatic presence in Pyongyang. Sweden was the first Western country to open an embassy in the DPRK in 1975, and it is still one of the few European nations with a presence there. Using its historical neutrality and stable engagement with Pyongyang, Sweden has taken on the crucial duty of promoting the interests of several countries involved in the security dynamics on the Korean Peninsula...

 

ISDP

Greenland and Arctic Security: What’s at Stake? May 2026. Greenland has emerged as a key focal point in Arctic security, driven by its strategic location between the Arctic and the North Atlantic and its role in missile warning, space surveillance, and monitoring activity across the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) gap. As climate change increases access to Arctic shipping routes and critical resources, the island’s geostrategic importance is rising, placing it at the center of evolving security and economic dynamics in the High North. Recent developments highlight intensifying geopolitical competition around Greenland...

 

ISDP

The DPRK’s War Dividend in Ukraine: Capabilities Gained, Trajectory Shifted, and the Long-Term Strategic Impact, May 2026. The DPRK’s support to Russia in its invasion of Ukraine has shifted from a denied but documented relationship into a tacitly acknowledged partnership. While this cooperation has helped sustain Russian firepower and battlefield operations, it has also generated significant strategic gains for Pyongyang. This includes battlefield learning at scale, accelerated weapons development cycles, political legitimation through a formal treaty with Moscow...

 

ISDP

Blue Economy, Strategic Seas: China’s Maritime Statecraft in Southeast Asia and Bay of Bengal, May 2026. This policy brief analyzes China’s evolution into a proactive maritime power, a transition central to its “Great Rejuvenation” and national security. Beyond mitigating the “Malacca Dilemma,” Beijing seeks to establish a stable maritime order aligned with its strategic interests. The research examines a dual-theater strategy that links China’s domestic “Blue Economy” with regional infrastructure development to promote maritime industrial and supply chain integration across Southeast Asia and the Bay of Bengal...

 

ISDP

China’s Global Initiatives: Limited Reach, Strategic Openings in the Indian Ocean, May 2026. Fragmentation of the global, multilateral order is visible even in the range of purportedly cooperative initiatives on offer by great powers, which represent competing and alternative systems, (counter-)narratives, and poles of influence. This includes several “global” initiatives that China has put forward over the past several years—the Global Development Initiative (GDI) and the Global Security Initiative (GSI) among them. Intensified stakeholder competition limits the scope and impact of these initiatives...

 

ISDP

Afghanistan in China’s Extended CPEC 2.0 Strategy, May 2026. The May 2025 trilateral agreement between China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, formalizing the extension of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghan territory, marked what Beijing celebrated as a turning point in Central and South Asian geopolitics. Within five months however, Pakistan and Afghanistan were exchanging artillery fire and airstrikes across their contested border. This policy brief argues that Beijing’s reliance on economic statecraft as its primary instrument of regional engagement has proven insufficient for the political complexity it confronts...

 

ISDP

Caution at the Crossroads: How China Positions Itself in Taliban-Ruled Afghanistan without Going All In, May 2026. This issue brief examines China’s engagement with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan since August 2021 through four linked dimensions: connectivity and Belt and Road Initiative planning, diplomatic normalization, economic engagement in energy and minerals, and the security calculus linking Xinjiang, Pakistan, and Central Asia. It argues that Beijing’s strategy is best understood as incremental positioning rather than rapid transformation—locking in option-value positions in resources and infrastructure while avoiding high sunk costs or formal recognition...

 

ISDP

Corridors of Influence? The China–Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor and Beijing’s Expanding Power Architecture, May 2026. This webinar, the fourth in the Silk Cage Series, moves beyond South Asia to examine how China’s continental corridors interface with maritime strategy, influence operations, and broader geopolitical contestation. It situates the China–Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor (CICPEC) within a wider strategic arc linking the South China Sea to the Bay of Bengal and further into the Indian Ocean Region (IOR)...

 

ISDP

Naval Operations in the Strait of Hormuz and the Greek Perspective, April 2026. This issue brief examines the strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz in the context of the 2026 regional crisis involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, with particular emphasis on the implications for Greece. It argues that Hormuz is not merely a regional maritime choke point, but a global centre of gravity where energy security, freedom of navigation, international law, naval deterrence, and supply-chain resilience converge. The analysis highlights the vulnerability of global oil and LNG flows, the operational risks created by asymmetric Iranian capabilities, and the limitations of purely military solutions in such a complex maritime environment...

 

ISDP

Trends in Southeast Asia 2026 #18: From Khomeini to Khamenei to Khamenei: The Impact of the Rahbar on the Shi’a Community in Malaysia. The doctrine of Wilayat al-Faqih, while not universally accepted within Twelver Shiʿism, has played a pivotal role in shaping both religious authority and political leadership, culminating in the institutionalization of the rahbar as Supreme Leader. Among Shiʿa communities in Malaysia, the rahbar is widely recognized as the principal marjaʿ, resulting in a close interconnection between religious allegiance and the political identity of Iran. The ideological legacy of Ruhollah Khomeini, particularly his anti-Western stance and position on Palestine...

 

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2026 #17: Madani Economics: A Deep-Dive Into the 13th Malaysia Plan (2026–2030). Malaysia Plans are five-year national development plans that have been guiding Malaysia’s economic and social policy since 1956. The 13th Malaysia Plan (13MP, 2026–2030) (“13MP”) is the latest in this series. It is structurally different from the previous Malaysia Plans, totalling only 211 pages compared with the average of 458 pages from the past three editions. The 13MP also saw high direct involvement from civil servants with little direct external help. The 13MP is the first official document to operationalize the Madani economic vision under Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim...

 

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2026 #16: Malaysia’s Semiconductor Industry: Performance, Pitfalls and Potential. The semiconductor industry has been part of Malaysia’s growth story for the past fifty years. At present, the sector employs almost 260,000 workers and generates some US$95.6 billion in exports per year. Recent high-profile investments from industry majors are encouraging, and there are emerging capabilities in higher value-added sectors such as integrated circuit design. Looking at the evolution of the semiconductor sector over the past twelve years, we find promising indicators in terms of increasing numbers of firms, workers, salary levels and outputs...

 

ISEAS

Latest APEC publications:

 

APEC

Latest ADB Working Paper Series:  

ADB

Latest ADBI Working Paper Series:  

ADB

Latest ADB Publications:  

ADB

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

May 2026

 

 

 

 

 

 

Asian Development Outlook, April 2026 (Full Report, Highlights and Special Topic). The report’s key assumptions, finalized on 10 March, envisage an early stabilization scenario, with disruptions gradually easing from April 2026. Under this scenario, growth in developing Asia and the Pacific is projected to moderate in 2026–2027, with inflation rising this year and easing slightly next year. Economic activity would be supported by resilient domestic demand, steady labor markets, and public infrastructure investment. However, uncertainty remains high, with the risk that tensions in the Middle East could persist longer than anticipated. Other risks include renewed tariff increases and an abrupt tightening in global financial conditions.

 

ADB

Monetary Authority of Singapore: Macroeconomic Review, Volume XXV, Issue 1, April 2026 (Full Report). Developments in the Middle East have disrupted the global supply of crude oil, gas and other industrial commodities. This is expected to weigh on economic activity in Singapore’s major trading partners as well as lift global inflation. Singapore’s GDP growth is anticipated to slow after the exceptional 5.0% outturn in 2025, with the output gap averaging around zero percent this year. MAS Core and CPI-All Items Inflation are now projected to be higher compared to the previous Review and average 1.5–2.5%. MAS therefore slightly increased the slope of the S$NEER policy band at the April policy review, with no change to the width and the level at which it is centred.

 

MAS

MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters, March 2026. The Singapore economy expanded by 6.9% year-on-year in Q4 2025, exceeding the respondents’ median forecast of 3.6% in the previous survey (Chart 1). In the current survey, the respondents expect the economy to grow by 5.8% year-on-year in Q1 2026. The respondents expect GDP to expand by 3.6% this year, higher than the previous survey estimate of 2.3%, with upgrades to the manufacturing and wholesale & retail trade sectors. According to the respondents, the most likely outcome is for the Singapore economy to grow by 3.5% to 3.9%...

 

MAS

Taiwan Matters: How the Status Quo Underpins Indo-Pacific Peace and Prosperity, April 2026. Taiwan sits at the centre of one of the most consequential strategic questions of our time. As this compendium makes clear, the issue is not simply a narrow dispute over sovereignty in the Taiwan Strait, but a defining test of the future of the Indo-Pacific and the international system itself. The stability of global trade, the resilience of advanced technology supply chains, and the credibility of democratic governance are all, in different ways, bound up in Taiwan’s future. As the report emphasises, Taiwan is “an unparalleled and critical hub for trade, innovation and democratic power,” whose fate would reverberate far beyond its shores...

 

ASPI

Light Speed Weapons? Directed Energy and the Future of the ADF, April 2026. The development of Directed Energy Weapons (DEW) – such as high energy laser and high-power microwave weapons – offers the Australian Defence Force a future solution to countering the growing threat of drones, but also missile threats. This ASPI Explainer explores the nature of DEW and considers what steps Australia is taking in this field, particularly in relation to counter-drone systems, and concludes with a call for a ‘DEW Strategy’ for the ADF that includes opportunities for collaborative development under AUKUS Pillar II.

 

ASPI

From Exposure to Endurance: Views From the Strategist, Darwin Dialogue Special Edition, April 2026. From exposure to endurance: Views from The Strategist – Darwin Dialogue special edition brings together a curated selection of analysis aligned to the 2026 Darwin Dialogue, examining how Australia and its partners can move from systemic exposure to enduring resilience in an increasingly contested Indo-Pacific. Drawing on contributions from government, industry and academia, the compendium explores the growing strategic importance of critical minerals, supply chains and industrial capability. It highlights that the challenge is no longer one of awareness but of execution, as concentrated and fragile global systems continue to expose Australia and its partners to disruption, coercion and volatility...

 

ASPI

Northern Capability, National Defence: Building the North And Strengthening the Nation, April 2026. Northern capability, national defence: Building the North and strengthening the nation: Views from The Strategist, NT Defence Week 2026 special edition brings together a curated collection of analysis examining how Australia can translate its strategic focus on the north into operational capability and sustained defence outcomes. Drawing on contributions from government, industry and academia, the compendium examines the central role of northern Australia in Australia’s defence posture – spanning force projection, logistics, fuel security, infrastructure and industrial capability – while highlighting the gap between a strategy that has shifted north and the systems needed to sustain operations at scale...

 

ASPI

Democratic Struggle and Resilience in South Korea (1948-2026), April 2026. Democratic uprisings build on the people’s will to change and the citizens’ fighting spirit against state oppression, violence, and corruption. The Republic of Korea (commonly known as South Korea)’s fighting spirit reflects a bigger human ideal for democracy; it is an example of constant bottom-up accountability.[i] It is an image of specific cultural traits (which one could argue for or against), but there is no doubt that it prompted a solid movement against authoritarianism and corruption that still maintains a robust stance against political mischief...

 

ISDP

China’s Connectivity Projects in the Gulf and Their Implications for Japan and India, April 2026. The current crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is restructuring global energy supply and trade routes. It affects Asian countries the most, due to their dependence on the energy supplies from the Gulf countries. Particularly, the crisis exposes the economic vulnerability of China, Japan, and India, as these countries are experiencing immediate disruptions in the energy supply and trade flows. In the long-term, the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz urges China to enhance its influence operations in the Indian Ocean region and diversify its trade routes, considering the importance of stable supply chains for the Chinese economy...

 

ISDP

China, Iran, and the Limits of Strategic Partnership Amid War, April 2026. The Iran war has exposed the fragility of the Middle East security environment and its direct implications for Asian powers, particularly China. While Beijing has long benefited from a U.S.-led security order, the current escalation highlights the challenges China faces, especially as it continues to refrain from offering any security commitments to Iran. China’s ties with Iran remain significant but limited, while its deeper and more diversified partnerships with Gulf states reflect clearer long-term priorities. The war has raised questions about the nature of relations between China and Iran while amplifying concerns over the vulnerability of Chinese investments and energy security...

 

ISDP

China’s Gwadar Gamble: Reshaping Sea–Land Connectivity, April 2026. China’s maritime resurgence, though relatively recent, reflects a decisive shift from continental preoccupations to expansive sea power ambitions. This issue brief examines the evolution of China’s maritime strategy through three interlinked frameworks: the transition from “offshore defense” to “far-seas defense,” the intellectual influence of Mahan and Mackinder, and the operationalization of the Two Oceans Strategy. Central to this transformation is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which integrates economic development with security imperatives. China is expanding naval capabilities, securing critical sea lanes, and developing strategic infrastructure across the Indo-Pacific...

 

ISDP

The Zhang Youxia Purge and Taiwan’s Security: Navigating Increased Unpredictability in the Taiwan Strait? March 2026. The January 2026 investigations of senior Central Military Commission figures, including Generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, have left China’s top military leadership unusually centralized under Xi Jinping. While this disruption in the People’s Liberation Army might suggest reduced operational capacity, it paradoxically increases risks for Taiwan. Leadership purges erode institutional knowledge, fostering miscalculation and unpredictable decision-making. Newly elevated officers may prioritize loyalty and assertiveness, encouraging risk-prone strategies. Simultaneously, Beijing could exploit global instability to intensify diplomatic, economic, and gray-zone pressure...

 

ISDP

Expert Perspectives on Arctic Communications: Resilience, Infrastructure Vulnerability, and Selective Interoperability, April 2026. This policy brief examines communications systems as a foundational enabler of Arctic security and maritime operations, drawing on an original survey of experts across industry, policy, academia, and defense. While existing literature emphasizes infrastructure gaps and technical constraints, it rarely captures how experts assess communications in the High North in operational terms. The survey reveals three policy implications. First, satellite-enabled systems are viewed as essential for overcoming persistent connectivity limitations, particularly through hybrid, multi-orbit architectures...

 

ISDP

Opening the Arctic Route: Implications for Asia-Europe Cooperation and South Korea’s Strategic Role, April 2026. The gradual opening of Arctic maritime routes due to climate change is reshaping the geopolitical and economic landscape between Asia and Europe. The Arctic is no longer a distant northern concern; it is emerging as a strategic space with direct implications for supply chains, shipping costs, energy security, naval operations, and industrial competitiveness. South Korea has particular relevance in this changing environment. As one of the world’s leading shipbuilding nations, a major export economy dependent on maritime trade, and a country with strong interests in both Europe and the Indo-Pacific, Korea is uniquely positioned to benefit from and contribute to the development of Arctic connectivity...

 

ISDP

“Corridors, Coasts, and Contestation: China’s Influence Operations in the Bay of Bengal and the BCIM Space”, March 2026. This webinar report, the third in the Silk Cage Series, examined how China utilized the Bay of Bengal and the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) space to operationalize influence across South Asia and the northeastern Indian Ocean. As part of the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs (SCSA-IPA) project, “The Silk Noose: China’s Power Architecture in South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region,” the discussion moved beyond infrastructure to explore how corridors and coasts functioned as strategic tools for reshaping regional order and autonomy...

 

ISDP

Trends in Southeast Asia 2026 #14: Ambition Without Alignment: Managing Malaysia’s Rare Earth Value Chain. In the escalating US-China trade war and projected increased demand for critical minerals, deposits of rare earth elements (REE)—highly essential in a range of manufacturing, defence and electronic items—have become highly sought after. According to Malaysia’s Mineral and Geoscience Department (JMG), the country has identified as much as 16.1 million metric tonnes of non-radioactive REEs across several states, although this will need to be independently verified...

 

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2026 #13: Public Diplomacy in the Digital Arena: A Comparative Assessment of US and Chinese Influence in Southeast Asia. US public diplomacy operates through a decentralized model that prioritizes local adaptation and high-volume messaging, while China relies on a centralized system emphasizing narrative discipline and message uniformity. Quantitative engagement data show that Chinese embassies consistently achieve higher engagement efficiency than their US counterparts; four of the top-performing five missions by conversion rate are Chinese, converting audience reach into public interaction more effectively across the region...

 

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2026 #12: Myanmar’s Youth and their Voice: A Reference Note on their Conscientization During the Transition (2010–21) and Subsequent Mobilization for a Federal Democratic Union. Myanmar’s youth, particularly the Gen Z, were at the forefront of publicly voicing disagreement with the military coup d’état that took place on 1 February 2021. The resistance movement rejecting the coup involved Bamar and non-Bamar, moved from urban centres to rural areas, and involved inputs and support from Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs), but especially from the youth and the new organizations they established in the wake of the 2021 coup...

 

ISEAS

Latest APEC publications:

 

APEC

Latest ADB Working Paper Series:  

ADB

Latest ADBI Working Paper Series:  

ADB

Latest ADB Publications:  

ADB

Asian Development Review, Vol. 43, No. 1, March 2026 (Full Report). Articles in this issue also look at women’s employment in Viet Nam, the role of financial services in Malaysia’s economy, food security and access to piped water in Pakistan, and housing demolition compensation and entrepreneurship in the People’s Republic of China.

  ADB

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

April 2026

 

 

 

 

 

 

High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecasts Current Quarter Model: 2026Q2, April 2026. Driven by sustained growth in local consumption sentiment and visitor arrivals, as well as rising demand for AI–related products, expenditure on machinery, equipment and intellectual property products surged, driving a 3.8% expansion in Hong Kong’s economy in the 25Q4. However, due to a higher base of comparison and uncertainty arising from the conflict in Iran, Hong Kong’s economic growth is projected to moderate to 3.3% in the 26Q1...

 

HKU

The Sino-Russian Partnership: Why It Matters for Australian Security and Defence, March 2026. The Sino-Russian ‘no limits’ partnership has become central to an emerging anti-Western axis that aims to weaken the West and counter the liberal international order that has buttressed Australia’s post-1945 peace, prosperity and security. Even though it is not a formal alliance, the depth and breadth of strategic cooperations between China and Russia—across military, economic, defence, diplomatic and technological domains—makes the partnership the most important bilateral one for both, and one that has severe strategic consequences for Australia...

 

ASPI

Markets as the New Front Line: Fusing Australia’s Economic Statecraft, March 2026. Episodes over the past decade—including China’s trade measures against Australia and Japan, Russia’s manipulation of European gas supplies, and the tightening of global controls over critical minerals—demonstrate how economic levers are being used to impose costs and reshape incentives without crossing traditional thresholds of conflict. This has included for the purposes of coercing nations into tolerating military aggression, cyber-attacks and foreign interference, or particularly in the case of China also creating monopolitistic dependencies...

 

ASPI

The Eu-Australia Security and Defence Agreement: Not a Pact but a Partnership, March 2026. On 24 March 2026, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and Australian Prime Minister Albanese signed the EU-Australia Security and Defence Partnership. The partnership represents a significant step in EU–Australia relations, elevating cooperation beyond its traditional focus on trade and investment. However, as with previous EU-Australia initiatives, its value will ultimately depend on whether it delivers concrete outcomes rather than remaining a largely declaratory framework...

 

ASPI

Strategic Surprise in the 21st Century: Complexity, Systems Failure and the Rewiring of National Security, March 2026. This report argues that strategic surprise in the 21st century is less the result of intelligence failure and more a structural consequence of operating in an increasingly complex and interconnected strategic environment. In Strategic surprise in the 21st century: Complexity, systems failure, and the rewiring of national security, authors examine how modern shocks increasingly emerge from the interaction of pressures across economic, technological, political and security systems rather than from a single hidden threat. Disruption now tends to build gradually through overlapping pressures across multiple domains, rather than appearing as a single, identifiable crisis event...

 

ASPI

The Northern Engine: Building Australia’s Northern National Defence Ecosystem, March 2026. Northern Australia sits at the centre of Australia’s defence strategy. Its geography provides direct access to the Indo-Pacific’s key sea and air approaches, making it essential for deterrence, force projection and operational sustainment. Over the past decade the United States has deepened its posture in the region, creating strategic opportunities that Australia must match with its own capability, infrastructure and industrial depth. Defence activity in the north is therefore not only about security – it is increasingly tied to regional economic stability, infrastructure development and the growth of defence-supporting industries...

 

ASPI

Australia and the Upending of US Intelligence: Further Down the Rabbit Hole, March 2026. Australia’s intelligence partnership with the United States will continue to underpin our national security, and there is no readily available ‘Plan B’ to replace exquisite capabilities shared through the Five Eyes alliance. Indeed, should both Australia and the US continue to assess China as the pacing threat internationally, the intelligence partnership will likely remain mutually beneficial and strong. But US policy relating to traditional relationships has changed, eroding predictability and potentially exposing allies—Australia included...

 

ASPI

Social Insecurity: Cohesion, Outrage Economics and National Resilience in Australia, March 2026. A new report from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute warns Australia’s social cohesion is under sustained pressure, with the Bondi Beach terrorist attack, the 7 October 2023 attacks on Israel and Covid‐19 acting as accelerants, intensifying pre-existing fractures in trust, legitimacy and public debate. In ‘Social insecurity: Cohesion, outrage economics and national resilience in Australia’, Dr John Coyne and Justin Bassi find that online outrage, declining trust and foreign interference are no longer abstract social concerns — they are core national resilience challenges...

 

ASPI

The Ungoverned Sky: Drones and the Domestic Extremist Threat, March 2026. In the past two decades, drones have transformed from niche military tools into widely available “commercial off-the-shelf” technologies. What was once the exclusive domain of state actors now rests within reach of nearly anyone with a credit card and a data signal. With uncrewed aircraft systems — or drone platforms — becoming cheaper, smaller, and easier to operate, the number of drone plots by domestic extremist groups has increased rapidly. In the last two years alone, US law enforcement personnel thwarted two extremist plots involving drones, and the Australian Federal Police arrested seven individuals in connection with a plot to use an explosive-laden drone...

 

Lowy

After the Compromise: Australia's COP31 Blueprint for the Pacific, March 2026. Australia's bid to co-host COP31 with Pacific Island countries was built around a clear objective to elevate Pacific climate concerns and use the spotlight to deliver for one of the world's most climate exposed regions. That objective is now at risk. After more than three years of negotiations, Australia conceded hosting rights to rival bidder Türkiye. While the Australian government retains a formal role in negotiations, and a pre-COP meeting will be held in the Pacific before the main summit, much of the agenda-setting power that shapes political momentum now sits with Türkiye. Without deliberate intervention, Pacific priorities risk being pushed to the margins...

 

Lowy

Greenland: A New Frontier of Competition for the U.S., China and Russia? March 2026. Greenland has become increasingly strategic in the evolving geopolitics of the Arctic, reflecting its importance for regional security, emerging maritime routes, and access to critical resources. Recent U.S. discussions about acquiring the territory have brought Greenland to the forefront of transatlantic security debates, raising questions about alliance cohesion and sovereignty. President Donald Trump has framed control of Greenland as critical for U.S. national security, particularly in the context of strategic competition with China and Russia in the Arctic...

 

ISDP

Taiwan in the Hidden War: The Contest for Technological Sovereignty Against Infiltration, March 2026. In an era where technological supremacy increasingly determines national power and economic prosperity, the battleground for competitive advantage has shifted from traditional military theaters to research laboratories, corporate boardrooms, and academic institutions. This transformation has created new vulnerabilities that nation-states must address while maintaining the openness necessary for innovation to flourish. Taiwan, positioned at the epicenter of global technology production...

 

ISDP

Changing Geometries: The Rise of a Middle-Power Tech Triangle, March 2026. As great-power rivalry reshapes global supply chains, technology governance, and the clean energy transition, middle powers are seeking new ways to reduce vulnerability. The Australia–Canada–India Technology and Innovation (ACITI) Partnership, announced at the 2025 G20 summit, represents an emerging model of strategic minilateralism focused on critical minerals, green innovation, and artificial intelligence. This issue brief argues that ACITI’s importance lies in its function as a risk-diversification platform, allowing participating states to expand cooperation and resilience while maintaining ties with major powers...

 

ISDP

Xi Jinping’s Multilateral Diplomacy and Pakistan: China’s Strategic Shield in International Institutions, March 2026. The Chinese use of multilateral diplomacy to shield Pakistan represents one of the most consequential dimensions of Sino-Pakistan relations and reveals fundamental tensions in Beijing’s approach to the rules-based international order. While China publicly champions counter-terrorism cooperation and positions itself as a responsible stakeholder in international institutions, its systematic protection of Pakistan at the United Nations Security Council and other multilateral forums directly contradicts these stated principles...

 

ISDP

China’s Anti-Corruption Campaign in the PLA, March 2026. China’s anti-corruption campaign under Xi Jinping has increasingly reshaped the leadership of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Initially focused on graft and procurement abuses, the campaign has expanded into the highest levels of China’s military command. Several senior figures linked to the Central Military Commission (CMC), the PLA’s top decision-making body, have been removed or placed under investigation, reflecting the growing reach of disciplinary enforcement within China’s armed forces...

 

ISDP

Gender Polarization among South Korean Youth: Determinants, Conscription, and Comparative Insights from Sweden, March 2026. Gender polarization among young South Koreans has become one of the most significant social and political dynamics of the past decade. Young men and women are increasingly viewed as separate, and often opposing, groups. Although frequently framed as a cultural or ideological divide, the tensions are often rooted in structural pressures and institutional arrangements. Employment insecurity, soaring housing costs, and male-only mandatory military service generate grievances that are often expressed in zero-sum terms...

 

ISDP

False Promises, Real Leverage: SEZs under CPEC in Pakistan, March 2026. China’s investment in Pakistan predates the announcement of the Global Development Initiative (GDI), yet tangible improvements across key economic and social sectors remain limited. Despite over a decade of promised investments from China, primarily through the $68 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Pakistan has seen minimal improvement owing to project delays, high debt servicing, and security issues. In fact, Pakistani officials have acknowledged that political instability has discouraged investors and undermined the expectation that CPEC would be a “game changer.” ...

 

ISDP

TRILATERAL IMPERATIVES: Japan-India-EU Cooperation on Economic Security, March 2026. The contemporary global landscape is increasingly defined by deepening divisions, driven factors such as the intensifying US-China rivalry and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In response, European countries are redoubling their efforts to establish secure and resilient supply chains, prioritizing partnerships with nations that share core democratic values. Japan too has embraced this approach. Its 2022 National Security Strategy explicitly outlines a policy of advancing economic security in collaboration with like-minded nations...

 

ISDP

Beyond Soft Power: KPop Demon Hunters and the Rise of Inclusive Koreanness, March 2026. This brief examines how contemporary Korean popular culture is reshaping global understandings of Koreanness through the case of the animated film ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ (2025). While debates about the Korean Wave (hallyu) have often been framed through the concept of soft power— treating Korean cultural products as instruments of national influence—this article argues that such a framework obscures the hybrid and transnational nature of contemporary cultural production...

 

ISDP

Report of the Silk Cage-I Webinar on “From Corridors to Control: China’s Long Shadow in South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region”, February 2026. This webinar, organized by the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs (SCSA-IPA) at the Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP), was held on February 17, 2026, as the first part of a series on the ‘Silk Cage’. This series seeks to address China’s expanding role in South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). It revolves around the central question: where does connectivity end and strategic control begin? The entire webinar is available on YouTube...

 

ISDP

Silk Cage-II Webinar Report on “Corridor, Client, or Catalyst? CPEC and Beijing’s Strategic Leverage from Pakistan to the Indian Ocean”, Feburary 2026. This report is the outcome of the second webinar in the Silk Cage series, held on February 19, 2026. This webinar addressed debates surrounding the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) with a central question: is CPEC primarily an economic development initiative, or does it function as a strategic instrument through which Beijing reshapes security alignments from South Asia to the Indian Ocean?...

 

ISDP

Trends in Southeast Asia 2026 #11: Performative or Substantive? Democratic Resilience After Autocratization in the Philippines. In the Philippines, civil society and social movements were traditionally viewed as robust pro-democratic actors and bulwarks of democracy. Under Duterte, however, democratic norms and institutions were undermined, resulting in an autocratizing episode that used threats, repression, coercion and outright violence. The scholarly literature on democratic resilience has conventionally relied on pro-democratic actors such as elected politicians from the opposition and civil society to restore democratic credentials and recalibrate the regime after autocratization...

 

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2026 #10: The 2025 Sabah State Election: Regional Consolidation or Another Cycle of Fragmentation?. As the incumbent state government and a component of the Unity Government at the federal level, Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) entered the Sabah state election with institutional and organizational advantages. These set the terms of electoral competition and influenced how both GRS and its challengers approached the campaign. Although GRS emerged as the largest bloc in the state assembly, its win of 29 of the 55 seats it contested represented a decline from its 38-seat victory in 2020 and did not translate into broad-based support or a dominant mandate. It fell well short of the level of political consolidation achieved by Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) in Sarawak...

 

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2026 #9: Methane Mitigation: Fast-Tracking Agriculture Decarbonization in Southeast Asia. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas that must be urgently mitigated to keep global temperatures within the targets of the Paris Agreement. The agrifood system contributed 55 per cent of Southeast Asia’s methane emissions in 2022. Half of this is from rice cultivation, followed by agrifood waste and enteric fermentation. Solutions to tackle emissions from rice cultivation, agrifood waste and enteric fermentation already exist. But achieving widespread application of these is a challenge because of financial constraints and slow adoption by farmers. Emerging biotechnology solutions appear promising, but they require further R&D investment...

 

ISEAS

Who Believes, Who Doubts, Who Participates? Civic Outlook and Citizen Engagement in Singapore, March 2026. This paper examines how Singaporeans perceive pluralism, collective agency and the capacity for coordinated civic action in a complex, multi-stakeholder society. The study addresses these questions through a nationally representative survey of 1,981 residents conducted in late 2024. Factor analysis of responses across 14 trend areas identified two latent constructs: pluralistic coexistence — measuring attitudes towards multi-stakeholder coordination and cultural diversity; and collective agency — capturing beliefs about citizens' capacity to influence national outcomes. Together, these orthogonal constructs constitute the civic outlook framework used in this study...

 

IPS

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